Tuesday, October 31, 2017

DEGRADATION OF ARMED FORCES IT IS TOO LATE THE TRADITION " to fight for my nation" IS DEAD

SOURCE:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4dNZas47Ls]


           IT IS TOO LATE THE TRADITION 
                        to fight for my nation 
                               IS DEAD



                                       [ https://youtu.be/Q4CtBD21hh4 ]






                                                       VETERANS  GOT THIS 

                                         ON

                         14 AUGUST 2015







             THANKS  "MODI GOVERNANCE "
                               FOR 
        REDEEMING OUR (DIS)HONOR


      [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q4dNZas47Ls]



                    

               IT IS TOO LATE THE TRADITION 
                             to fight for my nation 
                                    IS DEAD




















Sunday, October 29, 2017

1962 WAR : CHINA’S INDIA WAR How the Chinese Saw the Conflict

SOURCE:
https://chinaindiaborderdispute.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/neville-maxwell-chinas-india-war.pdf






              CHINA’S INDIA WAR
       How the Chinese Saw the Conflict 

                                By 
          Neville Maxwell (May 2011) 



The Chinese leadership was slow to recognise the seriousness of the problems presented to it by the Nehru government’s border policy. Soon after the establishment of the Peoples Republic in 1949 its government had recognised border settlement as a problem involving all its numerous neighbours, and had evolved a strategy to deal with it: forswearing irredentist attempts to regain “lost lands”, China would accept the border alignments with which history had left it, and negotiate where necessary to formalise and confirm them, in the spirit of “Mutual understanding and mutual accommodation”. In the case of India, this meant that India should retain the territory, up to what they called the McMahon Line, which the British imperialists had seized in their final expansionist foray. Zhou Enlai gave assurances to that effect in his several meetings and exchanges with Jawaharlal Nehru in the 1950s, and Beijing foresaw no territorial dispute with India. 



Their first inkling of troubles ahead came in 1958 when Beijing found itself accused of “aggression” (an extreme and loaded term in diplomatic parlance) when Indian border guards found a Tibetan/Chinese presence in small tracts claimed by India in what became known as the middle sector of the border. Then an Indian patrol was detected and detained in Chinese-claimed and -occupied territory in the western sector. And in August 1959 an armed clash at a point called Longju on the McMahon Line, in which an Indian border guard was killed, set off an outburst of public and official suspicion and anger against China, not only in India but in the West generally and, critically, in Moscow. So in October that year the Chinese leadership found itself being reprimanded over the Longju incident by the visiting Nikita Krushchev.1 “Why did you have to kill people on your border with India?” he demanded to know. Mao Zedung replied, defensively, “They attacked us first, crossed the border and continued firing for twelve hours”. Krushchev retorted, “Nobody was killed among the Chinese, only among the Indians”.


 Zhou Enlai came in: “What are we supposed to do if they attack us first? We cannot [just] fire in the air! The Indians even crossed the McMahon Line. Besides, very soon Vice President Radhakrishnan is coming to China – that shows that we are undertaking measures to resolve the issues peacefully by negotiations”.


 Mao summed up the Chinese position: “The border conflict with India is only a marginal issue, not a clash between the two governments. Nehru himself is not aware of what happened [at Longju]. As we found out, their patrols crossed the McMahon Line. We learned about it much later, after the incident took place. All this was known neither to Nehru nor even to our military district in Tibet. When Nehru learned that their patrols had crossed the McMahon Line he issued orders for them to withdraw. We also worked towards peaceful restoration of the issue.” 


Zhou continued with those reassurances: “You will see for yourself later that the McMahon Line with India will be maintained and the border conflict will end”. Mao underlined that prediction: “The border issue with India will be decided through negotiations”.


 So it can be seen that at that stage the Chinese had failed to grasp the truth behind the border friction and beneath the careful wording in the Indian government’s diplomatic communications. Nehru had decided, well before this and irrevocably as it turned out, that India would never agree to negotiate its borders. And the Longju clash was not accidental but reflected the Indian approach to borders that was later to be named, from the British imperial vocabulary, the “forward policy”, involving here the unilateral amendment of McMahon’s alignment in accordance with Indian convenience. India was treating the territory it claimed as ipso facto (by reason of that claim) Indian territory.



 The more serious clash in October 1959 at the Kongka Pass on the Kashmir/ Xiangkiang border, with killed on both sides, had a galvanic effect on Indian public opinion and jolted the Chinese leadership into alarmed attention. Convening again to discuss the border with India, with Army commanders in attendance, they learned that Chinese border guards were experiencing frequent challenges from Indian patrols, and were chafing at orders that denied them the right to “rebuff’ them. Mao, perhaps rankling still from Krushchev’s dressing down and certainly recognising that further clashes resulting in Indian casualties would add to the international opprobrium on China, decided that only disengagement of the two sides’ forces would prevent them. He ordered a 20 kilometre withdrawal of Chinese guards all along the border, with a request to be made to India for reciprocation. That request was refused but the proposed withdrawal was implemented by Chinese forces.2 


Still, and for at least a year thereafter, the Chinese leadership failed to appreciate the severity of the problem with which India’s assertive and unyielding approach to the border dispute confronted them, apparently expecting that their repeated diplomatic calls for negotiation, and for agreed short-term measures to tranquillise the borders, would ultimately be accepted.


 By mid-1961, however, the newly named forward policy of using force, non-violently, to extrude the Chinese from the tracts of territory claimed by India, was beginning to bite in the Western border sector. Indian patrols, conducted now by the Army rather than armed police, were challenging Chinese posts and probing for positions from which to dominate and sever their lines of communication. The unyielding granite in India’s diplomatic refusal to negotiate had been personally felt by Zhou in his abortive summit meeting with Nehru in April 1960. It now began to occur to the Chinese leadership that India might deliberately be making itself an enemy of China – and even be bent on provoking hostilities.



While noting Nehru’s long-standing declarations of friendship towards China and welcoming his support for their claims to UN representation, as Marxists the Chinese had always harboured a reserve of distrust of Nehru as a “national bourgeois” politician. As such he was unreliable, and might at any time, for domestic political reasons or to curry favour with China’s implacable counter-revolutionary foe, the USA, turn towards enmity. To the Chinese, that seemed to be the only possible explanation for India’s aggressive policy and Nehru’s bellicose utterances, since conflict with China could not be seen as being of benefit for India.


 Toward the end of 1961 a meeting of the Central Military Commission (CMC) was convened to consider the response to India’s forward probing. Mao, in the chair, compared those to chess moves. “What should we do?”, he asked. “We can also set out a few pawns…. If they then [stop advancing] that’s great. If they don’t, we’ll eat them up. Of course we can’t just blindly eat them. ‘Lack of forbearance in small matters upsets great plans’ [as the saying goes]. We must pay attention to the situation.” Orders were issued for Chinese forces to reverse their previous unilateral withdrawal, and for road construction to forward areas all along the border to be accelerated. Mao took the “struggle with India” under his personal control, ordering that no shot be fired from the Chinese side without his prior approval. 


In March 1962 the CMC met again to reconsider the border situation. Indian troops were continuing to press forward in the Western sector, attempting to cut off Chinese posts and sometimes opening harassing fire upon them. On the diplomatic front India was meeting every Chinese appeal for a mutual military standstill and negotiations with demands for unilateral Chinese withdrawal from all territory claimed by India. It was decided there should be no retreat under Indian pressure. When Indian troops established positions threatening Chinese posts in the western sector, additional Chinese forces should simply use their great advantage in manoeuvrability and numbers to outflank and dominate them in turn. Thus the two sides would be confronting each other in interlocking, mutually threatening positions. Chinese forces would still be forbidden to fire without permission from the central political authority. Since India was rejecting China’s calls for peaceful coexistence, Mao quipped, it should be confronted with “armed coexistence”.


 The summer of 1962 saw only intensification of that situation. Beijing increased the minatory tone and heat of its diplomatic warnings and made its threats of counterforce more open. Delhi’s replies continued to be insouciant and intransigent, Nehru being confident in the assurances from his Intelligence chief and courtier generals that the Chinese were bluffing and would never dare hit back at India. For their part too the Chinese were uncertain about India’s motives and ultimate intention

Could it really be true that India, so obviously weaker militarily and at every logistical and tactical disadvantage along the border, would press on to the point of war? 


Zhou Enlai directed Chen Yi, now foreign minister, to meet privately with the Indian defence minister, Krishna Menon, when they were in Geneva at an international conference, and sound him out about India’s real intentions. Chen reported that Menon had simply re-stated his government’s position: Beijing’s complaints were groundless since Indian troops were doing nothing more than advancing into their own territory; the international borders were clearly marked on India’s maps and were fixed and final – therefore there was nothing to negotiate. 


Menon’s tone was arrogant, Chen added. Zhou concluded,
“It seems as though Nehru truly wants a war with us”. 


Meanwhile the forward policy had begun to be implemented in miniature in the northeast, with Indian forces advancing across the McMahon Line in such places as the Indians thought it necessary to correct McMahon’s cartographic deficiencies. Their reoccupation of Longju in May prompted Beijing to warn that it would not “stand idly by” under such provocation – only to see another Indian post established across the McMahon Line near the trijunction with Bhutan.
The Indians named it Dhola post.


But Mao was still not ready to admit that his policy of “armed coexistence” was failing to deter India. In July the CMC reasserted his orders: the Chinese Army must “absolutely not give ground, strive resolutely to avoid bloodshed, interlock [with Indian positions] in a zigzag pattern, and undertake a long period of armed coexistence”. That cautious patience was understandable. China’s international position was parlous: the Americans were warring in Vietnam, Chiang Kai-shek was threatening to invade the mainland from Taiwan, the Soviet Union was turning hostile. All rational considerations pointed to avoidance of hostilities with India if possible. 


On 8 September the Chinese extended their tactic of containment through “armed coexistence” to the recently established Dhola post north of the McMahon Line at its western extremity. An outnumbering force (about 60 troops) was ordered to invest the little Indian post, use threats to induce its withdrawal if possible, and anyway to block further advance. This move was likely to have been made by the sectoral command without consultation with Beijing since it did no more than implement the orders already in effect. 


Misreading that move as a deliberate incursion into Indian territory (although the Indian government was aware, of course, that the threatened Indian post was well to the north of the map-marked McMahon Line), Nehru gave orders that the Chinese must be repelled. The Indian Army was given orders to attack the Chinese troops threatening Dhola post and drive them off all the territory there claimed by India. Moreover Nehru publicly proclaimed his order as soon as he issued it.


 The Chinese would have recognised instantly that Nehru’s announced order meant a radical escalation in the Indian policy which they had been passively containing. Although the Chinese had begun to suffer casualties in clashes in the Western sector there had been no Indian attacks on Chinese positions there; but now Nehru had declared that a determined assault in force was to be launched on Chinese troops – positioned on their own side of the McMahon Line. There was no doubt that any such attack could be thrown back, even wiped out. Controlling the high ground on Thagla Ridge, dominating Dhola post, the Chinese troops could swiftly fortify their  position to make it impregnable. However many troops India put into their attack the Chinese could effortlessly outnumber them. But would such a local victory do China any good? 


International public sympathy was with India, whose charge that it was China which had embarked on a program of aggressive expansion and was refusing to negotiate its territorial claims was almost universally accepted -- “Standing truth on its head” as Beijing ruefully described it. A local Indian defeat, with many casualties suffered, would be taken as another demonstration of brutal Chinese aggressiveness; and the Indians, with plentiful American and British support, would only build up for a much stronger attack and a wider war. 


On 3 October Beijing sent its final diplomatic warning and plea for immediate, unconditional negotiations: India instantly rejected it. After listening to a situation report of intensifying skirmishing in the west and Indian troop concentrations around Dhola post Mao conceded: “It seems armed coexistence won’t work…. Nehru really wants to use force: he has always wanted to seize Aksai Chin [in the western sector] and Thagla Ridge. He thinks he can get anything he desires.” 


Like a war-horse hearing bugles, he reminisced:

"We fought a war with old Chiang Kai-shek. We fought a war with Japan, and with America. With none of those did we fear. And in each case we won. Now the Indians want to fight a war with us. Naturally we don’t have to fear. We cannot give ground, once we give ground it would be tantamount to letting them seize a big piece of land equivalent to Fujian province…. Since Nehru sticks his head out and insists on us fighting him, for us not to fight with him would be unfriendly – courtesy emphasises reciprocity”.


Zhou Enlai followed up:
“We don’t want a war with India. We have always striven to avoid war. We wanted India to be like Nepal, Burma or Mongolia, and solve [border] problems with us in a friendly fashion. But Nehru has closed all roads. This leaves us only with war. As I see it, to fight a bit would have advantages. It would make some people understand us better”.


 “Right”, Mao concluded:
“If someone doesn’t attack me, I won’t attack him. If someone attacks me, I will certainly attack him!” Thus the Chinese leadership decided to take up India’s challenge to war. But how to fight and win that war? “What should be our method? What should the war look like?”, Mao asked at a subsequent meeting.


 What China needed was not a local victory but to inflict a defeat so crushing that India might be “knocked back to the negotiating table”, Mao said, or at least taught a lesson that might last thirty years. To that end, China must keep the initiative throughout, deciding when to terminate hostilities as well as when to open them. Crack troops of the Peoples Liberation Army should be deployed, with orders to achieve swift victory regardless of casualties, keeping always within the disputed areas. When all Indian forces in the disputed areas had been destroyed a unilateral ceasefire would be declared and then PLA forces would withdraw from all territory occupied in the campaign. On 18 October an expanded Politburo meeting approved the PLA’s operational plans and set 20 October as the day for action. In terms of international law Beijing could argue that in the circumstances, with Nehru having declared his belligerent intentions and the Indian army having, on 10 October, made its first offensive move in the Dhola area and being steadily reinforced there, China was fully justified in acting in “anticipatory self-defence”.



 The Chinese campaign went precisely as planned. Mao had over-estimated the prowess of the Indians when he warned the PLA to expect strong resistance from experienced Indian troops. In the event incompetent commanders on the Indian side, obeying politically motivated and tactically foolish directives from Delhi, quickly brought their own troops to defeat and rout. Having achieved total victory in a two phase campaign Beijing declared its pre-planned ceasefire on 21 November and all Chinese forces withdrew a few weeks later.


The political aims of the “counter-attack in self-defence”.were not fulfilled, however. There was no change in the Indian approach, and nearly 50 years later India still refuses to negotiate, while Mao’s expectation of a 30 year lull on the borders fell short by five years: in 1987 after a minor confrontation at Sumdurong Chu, not far from Dhola, India again moved troops across the McMahon Line in calculated challenge, and war was narrowly averted. Still today there is no agreed “line of actual control”, friction on the borders is constant, the danger of renewed conflict ever-present. India’s refusal to negotiate has left it isolated in this regard; every one of China’s other contiguous neighbours (except Bhutan) has amicably negotiated a boundary settlement. [2800 words] 




 1 The Minutes of that meeting are in Cold War International History Project Vol. 12/13 (Fall/Winter 2001), pp 264-267.


 2 The China’s government has been far more liberal than India’s in releasing documentation about the diplomatic and military events around 1962.. The account of the Chinese leadership’s thinking and comments here is drawn from John Garver “China’s Decision for War with India in 1962” in Alastair Iain Johnston and Robert S. Ross, editors, New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy, Stanford University Press, 2006, pp 86-130. The writer has drawn on this material previously in his fuller paper, “Forty Years of Folly: What Caused the Sino-Indian Border War and Why the Dispute is Unresolved” in Critical Asian Studies 35:I (2003), pp 99-112.









Saturday, October 28, 2017

DEGRADATION OF ARMED FORCES : RANK RANKLE IN FORCES -MoD, armed forces lock horns over panel report

SOURCE;


[ http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/mod-armed-forces-lock-horns-over-panel-report/484780.html ]


 [  http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/panel-report-may-lead-to-discontent-armed-forces/485368.html  ]


[  http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/status-parity-issues-remain-despite-announcements/485765.html ]




             ARE THE ARMED FORCES 

                   BEING PRESSURISED 

                                 TO

              SIGN ON THE DOTTED LINE 

                              ON 

                THE DEATH WARRANT ?

        RANK RANKLE IN FORCES 

                          PART-I

[ http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/mod-armed-forces-lock-horns-over-panel-report/484780.html ]



MoD, armed forces lock horns over panel report



The committee in its report has not spoken about the ranks of Captain and Lieutenant while suggesting rank parity norms


 October 20

In a move that threatens to question the seniority in military ranks, a report of a committee of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has resulted in a heated exchange of correspondence between various wings of the ministry and the forces.
The three-member committee headed by an Additional Secretary-rank officer had been tasked to study rank-equivalence norms between the armed forces and the civilians employed in the Armed Forces Headquarters, called the (AFHQ) cadre.
The armed forces are contesting the committee’s 21-page draft report that has not yet been presented to the MoD, top sources confirmed to The Tribune.
The Principal Personnel Officers Committee (PPOC), a body of the three armed forces, has reacted sharply and shot off a letter questioning the several claims made in the report and the documents relied upon to arrive at the conclusions, sources said. Sources point out that if the committee’s report is accepted, there would be serious ramifications on the morale of officers in the ranks of Lieutenant, Captain and Major of the Indian Army and their equivalents in the Navy and IAF.
The first 10 years of service of an officer are spent in these ranks and the committee in its report has not spoken about the ranks of Captain and Lieutenant when suggesting its rank parity norms.
A Major and Lieutenant Colonel have been made equal to the Deputy Director; a Colonel is equal to a Joint Director; a Brigadier is equal to Director and the Major General equal to Principal Director.
The forces are protesting these as the warrant of precedence (WoP) issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs says a Major General is equal to a Joint Secretary and a Brigadier is equal to a Deputy Director General.
The forces are questioning the various equations drawn out by the MoD.
The committee had been set up in October last year by the then Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar.
Parrikar had ordered a ‘cross-checking of facts’ on rank parity between officers of the three forces and civilians. The forces had protested saying that equivalence had been disturbed and the status of service officers had been downgraded following an MoD note in October last year.
One year later, the committee says the MoD note issued in October last year has basically reiterated the arrangements which have existed for years. In other words, the protest of the three forces has been brushed aside.
The committee has suggested that a standing committee be constituted to resolve the ongoing issues between the forces and the AFHQ cadre.
The AFHQ cadre was set up in the mid-1960s and was meant to provide only Secretarial support and has no executive authority or powers.

Tomorrow: The stinging protest by the forces










        RANK RANKLE IN FORCES 

                         PART-II

 [  http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/panel-report-may-lead-to-discontent-armed-forces/485368.html  ]



Panel report may lead to discontent: Armed forces



 October 21


 A storm is brewing in South Block, headquarters of the Ministry of Defence in the national capital. In view of the rank-parity committee’s draft, the armed forces have warned against violating “established equations”. They say it could cause “dissatisfaction” among forces and give rise to “avoidable litigation”.


The 21-page draft report of the committee headed by an additional secretary rank officer is on rank-equivalence norms between the armed forces and the civilians employed in the Armed Forces Headquarters, called the AFHQ cadre. The report has not yet been presented to the MoD. The armed forces are protesting vehemently. 


The Principal Personnel Officers Committee (PPOC), a body of the three armed forces, in a letter to the three-member committee on September 22, reiterated rank benchmarks and questioned the veracity of the documents submitted by the AFHQ cadre. The PPOC said the rank-parity claims of the AFHQ cadre are based on unsubstantiated documents largely based on a letter written by the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) in 1968. 


“Its veracity is in serious doubt,” stated the stinging protest letter. It cites a 2007 MHA letter which clarified that no such document exists to establish equivalence between defence officers and civilians except for the warrant of precedence. The same was reiterated by the Group of Ministers’ report in 2008. The armed forces have cited that the charter of the PPOC cleared by the Union Cabinet mandates policy matters of the AFHQ cadre. 


The AFHQ officials in their presentation to the committee have disputed this Cabinet memo dated 1974 and subsequent MoD letter in 2002. The PPOC has argued that the AFHQ cadre headed by a Chief Administrative Officer (CAO) has made various communications regarding status equivalence based on “nonexistent” precedence. “Gross misrepresentation seems to have been made regarding equivalence, cadre restructuring and creation of higher posts,” the letter from PPOC suggests while seeking that all such letters be examined for their appropriateness. 


Talking about ranks, it said Junior Commissioned Officers (JCOs), who rise from the ranks, are mandated as gazetted ‘group B’ employees. Commissioned Officers are equal to ranks of all-India services and the IPS. 


In July, the Army had written to the MoD saying that JCOs are accorded gazetted status as per an Act of Parliament and have legally defined status. However, when posted at South Block, a JCO is issued an identity card equating him with group C, the lowest in the government employee cadre. 
Tomorrow: Helpless, despite announcements






            RANK RANKLE IN FORCES

                        PART-III

[  http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/status-parity-issues-remain-despite-announcements/485765.html ]



Status, parity issues remain despite announcements



October 22



Almost nine years ago, on December 27, 2008, the Prime Minister’s Office issued a detailed note asking for setting up a high-powered committee to resolve the issues of status and parity among the armed forces, the Central armed police and also the civilians.


This implied having a well-defined parity among the forces and other cadres like the IAS and IPS.  Certain ranks have been “added” at the higher level in the past three decades in the IAS and IPS.


In all these years, no committee has been set up that could, for once and all, decide on the matter. In the hierarchy-driven forces, encroachments on status are a strict no-no. Announcements are made and then noting happens, noted a senior functionary.


The December 2008 PMO note originated after forces protested against what they termed as “lowering” of status by the 6th Central Pay Commission (CPC). Besides then Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, the decision makers included then External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee and then Defence Minister AK Antony.  


The non-functional upgradation (NFU) is yet another issue. The 7th CPC report tabled in 2016 said NFU should be given to forces. The government differed. The matter is now before the Supreme Court. A “non-functional scale (pay) upgradation” is allowed by the government to Group-A officers. Meaning they get the same scale as a Joint Secretary, but after 24 years of service. The NFU increases the salary of an individual by taking it to the upper scale. In the government, all facilities, perks, accommodation, travel allowance, vehicle, etc., are decided on basis of pay scales.



Strangely, the armed forces are neither classified as group “A” services nor are they termed as “Central services” like the IAS or the IPS, hence, they do not get an NFU. Now, with others getting NFU the gap gets widened. On the operational side, all civilian officers in Border Roads Organisation or the Military Engineering Services get this NFU, making them “senior” in hierarchy to the armed forces officers, who are otherwise senior in warrant of precedence  (WoP) defined by the Ministry of Home Affairs.



In November last year, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) notified a three-member committee to study rank equivalence between the armed forces and the civilians employed in the Armed Forces Headquarters, called the AFHQ cadre.


The MoD appointed an Additional Secretary as head of the committee, while a Lt-Gen rank officer, who as per the WoP is ahead in status, was made a member of the committee. How the Armed forces accepted this, is not known.  The committee has made 21-page draft report that has not yet been presented to the MoD.

 The armed forces are protesting vehemently at the proposed “lowering” of their status.


In case of the forces, the ranks and their roles, functions and names have remained more or less the same since the British era. No more than 20 per cent of make it to the rank of Colonel as there are no automatic promotions. The percentage drops sharply for Brigadier, Maj General and Lt General.


(Concluded)


































Thursday, October 19, 2017

AFTER DOKLAM : START PREPARATIONS TO RE-INSTALL DALAI LAMA IN LHASA

SOURCE:
https://geopoliticalfutures.com/china-india-guard-preposterous/?utm_content=59200300&utm_medium=social&utm_source=googleplus



      AFTER  DOKLAM IT IS TIME 
                              TO 
 CHANGE CHINA-TIBET POLICY
                               & 
             BEGIN  PREPARATIONS
                             TO 
 REINSTATE  DALAI  LAMA  IN LHASA





China and India Guard Against                the Preposterous

                                By
                     George Friedman
China and India have been locked in a military standoff in a remote section of the Himalayas for a couple of months. At first it appeared to be the latest of the minor clashes that have flared between the countries for decades. But this time it has lasted longer than usual. There are two questions to be answered. The first is what is the geopolitical interest, if any, that is driving the standoff? The second is why is it happening now?
The geopolitical issue is that China and India are both heavily populated countries with substantial military forces, including nuclear weapons. They are both industrializing rapidly, and they can both theoretically challenge each other on multiple levels – militarily, politically and economically. In fact, these challenges are all merely theoretical, but geopolitics operates at the level of possibility, and the possibility of a challenge is present, however remote. But before their rivalry can turn into full-fledged war, there’s one massive obstacle that would need to be overcome.
The Moderating Power of Mountains
China and India are next to each other, but in a certain sense they don’t really share a border. The Himalayas separate them almost as much as an ocean would. Getting over the mountains is difficult; roads are sparse and generally in poor condition. It is easier to trade with each other by sea than land. Sending and supplying major military forces into and across the Himalayas is almost impossible. The roads and passes won’t permit the passage of enough supplies to sustain large numbers of troops in intense combat. In that sense, China and India are secure from each other.
Both countries have nuclear weapons, and obviously, anything is possible. But neither side has anything to gain from a nuclear exchange. The Soviets and Americans avoided a nuclear exchange during the Cold War, and the Indians and Chinese have far less to gain from an exchange than they did.
China and India aren’t exactly equals – they’re close economically, but even that is a stretch. But the Himalayas are the equalizer, and the Himalayas aren’t 


Conflict by Other Means
Their militaries may not be able to easily cross the Himalayas, but it takes little effort for them to attack each other politically. On the north side of the Himalayas lies Tibet. It is a plateau, consisting of a non-Chinese population, that was temporarily independent until it was reoccupied by China in the 1950s. In the chaos that followed the Chinese invasion, Tibet’s leader, the Dalai Lama, fled to India, where he was welcomed. The Dalai Lama continues to symbolize Tibetan independence, and Tibet continues to be restive under Chinese rule.
What is most important about Tibet is that it lies on the other side of the Himalayas from India. If Tibet became independent by some means and allied with India, then theoretically an Indian force could be based there and, in time, could build up a logistical system that could support an attack into China itself. This is all far-fetched, but given history, a prudent state must take the preposterous into account. History is filled with examples of the inconceivable becoming reality.
This, then, explains China’s obsession with Tibet and its anger at India’s support for the Dalai Lama. The Chinese core, Han China, is protected by buffers: Tibet, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Manchuria. The last two are not a problem. Xinjiang has a significant Islamist movement. But Tibet is hostile and has a foreign patron. Beijing is therefore, if not obsessed, extremely concerned about Tibet and India.

That is the Chinese issue. India’s concern is the same in reverse. There are two other states on the southern side of the Himalayas: Bhutan and Nepal. Both are on plateaus. If China gained control of or a presence in either, it could also mass forces and logistical supplies and potentially threaten India with military force.
Nepal in particular concerns India, because it has been politically unstable and has a Maoist movement. Nepal also values its independence and resents India’s intrusions in its affairs. The Chinese have been solicitous of the independence of both countries, and just this week, China’s vice premier visited Nepal for four days. Before that visit, India’s foreign minister was in Nepal, and Nepal’s prime minister will visit India on Aug. 25. Suspicion abounds. The Indians are as suspicious of China’s intentions south of the Himalayas as China is of India’s north of them.
A Political ‘Solution’
A large-scale invasion would be a logistical nightmare for either country to orchestrate, but technically not impossible. The two did conduct a war in Tibet in 1962 for about a month. Yet the brevity of the war speaks to the high cost and complexity of waging battle at 14,000 feet, so much so that it strongly discourages war. But a political evolution in Tibet or Nepal could change the balance. If Tibet threw out the Chinese and invited the Indians in, China would actually be in danger. If Nepal created a pro-Chinese government and invited in the Chinese while the Indians weren’t looking, the same could happen in reverse. And India is poking at Tibet and China at Nepal, the latter with some possibility of success.
The likelihood of either Tibet or Nepal moving out of China’s or India’s sphere of influence is doubtful. It’s hard to imagine that either could foment a sustainable uprising. If it were to happen, though, it could only be taken advantage of by one or the other having secured a road through the Himalayas that could support the movement of troops and supplies.
It is the Chinese now who are trying half-heartedly to build such a road into Bhutan. But there is a long way to go, and India will resist all the way. If the road even made it through, it would be met with a blocking force. Of course, a pro-Chinese government installed in Nepal or Bhutan would complicate the matter. If the Chinese could rapidly insert some troops, causing the Indians to have to initiate combat against Chinese forces, there is an outside chance that it could work, just as under even more trying circumstances it might work for India in Tibet.
India and China are separated by terrain. There is no military solution to that, but in this case, there might be a political solution. If that were to happen, then we could speak of a China-India rivalry in real terms, rather than in the vague, notional ways we speak now. And both sides are prepared to devote minor military force and major political power to prevent it from happening.
It is unlikely in the extreme that any of this will come to bear. But in a world where the impossible is not an absolute, neither country is prepared to gamble. And so they skirmish in altitudes at the limits of human endurance for a far-fetched possibility. Nations do not take their national security lightly merely because the threat is preposterous.



















Wednesday, October 18, 2017

CHINA :Making Sense of China’s Nineteenth Party Congress

SOURCE:







Xi Asserts China's Global Leadership Role
At a party congress in Beijing, Chinese President Xi Jinping offered a sweeping vision to transform the country by 2050 (Bloomberg) in a Wednesday speech that touched on economic, environmental, and foreign policy, as well as cracking down on domestic corruption.
Xi told the gathering that China has entered a new era in which it should "take center stage in the world" (BBC) as he laid out goals for the next three decades that include transforming the People's Liberation Army into one of the globe's top militaries. The delegates at the congress, which marks the start of Xi's second term, will deliberate for a week before announcing new party leadership (FT).
ANALYSIS
"The speech signaled that Xi would prioritize extending the influence of the Communist Party in China over the next five years, raising questions over his commitment to implementing tough reforms and expanding the role of the market," Ting Shi writes for Bloomberg.
"The question now is whether the new leadership can find the right balance in allowing the market to play the 'decisive' role, while the state still plays a leading but redefined role," Yukon Huang said in an interview with the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center.
"On his numerous foreign tours, Mr. Xi presents himself as an apostle of peace and friendship, a voice of reason in a confused and troubled world. Mr. Trump's failings have made this much easier," writes the Economist.
This CFR Backgrounder discusses what's at stake at the Nineteenth Party Congress.








 by Eleanor Albert




Chinese President Xi Jinping arrives at the Great Hall of the People in Beijng to celebrate the ninetieth anniversary of the People's Liberation Army, August 1, 2017. 
Damir Sagolj/Reuters








Making Sense of China’s Nineteenth Party Congress

 
                              by
                    Eleanor Albert

As China’s senior Communist 
Party members anoint its 
future leaders, President Xi 
Jinping is poised to solidify 
his position and power at 
next week’s party congress.

October 12, 2017



INTRODUCTION




China’s highest-ranking Communist Party members will gather in Beijing beginning October 18 for the Nineteenth Party Congress. The meeting takes place five years since Xi Jinping took the helm of China’s leadership and comes amid a rigorous crackdown on party corruption. While preparations for the congress have been shrouded in secrecy, the event will be closely watched for any changes to the governing system of the world’s second-largest economy and one of its largest militaries.

What is a party congress?


Since the establishment of the People’s Republic of China in 1949, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been the dominant decision-making body, providing direction and guidance to the State Council, the administrative authority of the country. The party’s national congress, held every five years in Beijing, is the central event for announcing official leadership transitions. The Eighteenth Party Congress, in 2012, solidified Xi Jinping’s ascent to power.



The most pressing question is whether Xi will name a successor.








At the gathering, more than two thousand party delegates will appoint the party’s general secretary, as well as senior leaders to bodies that oversee economic and security functions, as well as party rules, including:
  • the party’s Central Committee,
  • the Central Military Commission (the command and control organ of China’s military services),
  • the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (the party’s antigraft watchdog),
  •  the Politburo (typically comprising twenty-five officials from China’s most important cities and provinces), and
  • the Politburo Standing Committee (the most powerful decision-making body, currently comprising seven members).
The congress also approves long-term goals, including new reforms and changes to the constitution. During the week-long congress, the general secretary presents a political work report, briefing delegates on progress made since the last congress and outlining objectives for the next five years. These reports are seen as the most authoritative and revealing documentation of the CCP’s aspirations; previous reports have developed the notion of “socialism with Chinese characteristics,” which continues to inform the country’s economic policy. Ultimately, “the deeper purposes of the Congress and the Report are to reaffirm the Party’s importance to itself and to the nation,” writes former UK and EU diplomat to China Charles Parton. 

What is the significance of the party congress?

In China’s one-party state, the peaceful transition of power from one generation of leaders to the next lends crucial legitimacy to CCP rule, experts say. Previous congresses have institutionalized the process of leadership succession, elevating those who will be groomed for senior leadership positions. Mandatory retirement ages, which were standardized in 2002, require top officials at least sixty-eight years old to step down. At this year’s congress, eleven out of twenty-five of the Politburo are slated to retire, including five of the seven Standing Committee members, antigraft czar Wang Qishan, President Xi’s right-hand man, among them. However, there is some speculation that the retirement norm may be bent at the upcoming congress, particularly to allow Wang to stay on.




The deeper purposes of the Congress and the Report are to reaffirm the Party’s importance to itself and to the nation.
 Charles PartonFormer UK and EU Diplomat







What is at stake in this year’s gathering?

The most pressing question is whether Xi will name a successor. Xi’s tenure has been notable for a severe anticorruption campaign at all levels of the party, targeting “tigers” (senior officials) and “flies” (other party cadres) alike. Antigraft movements are not uncommon as a means for a new leader to consolidate power, yet Xi’s campaign shows no signs of abating and is unprecedented in scope. Xi has also broadened his power by heading up various policy-oriented groups, leading some experts to say that as Xi moves away from the norm of collective leadership, he has positioned himself to become the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong. “Five years into his tenure, Xi controls the most important levers of power [PDF] in China’s political system,” writes Matthias Stepan of the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies.
Xi has not only taken a harder line on corruption but also on dissent, with brutal crackdowns on human rights activists and lawyers, religious entities, and media organizations. In doing so, he seeks to make the party the central force bringing prosperity to the masses. Other themes of his first term include the “Chinese Dream,” a patriotic call for China to renew itself as a great nation; increased military assertiveness in the Asia-Pacific region; and the Belt and Road Initiative (first known as One Belt, One Road), a plan to connect China to the West through maritime and continental transportation networks across Eurasia. For Xi’s second term as president, the party is likely to emphasize further domestic economic reform with the promotion of innovation-led development and the expansion of China’s international reach[PDF] through instruments like the Belt and Road Initiative.



Five years into his tenure, Xi controls the most important levers of power in China’s political system.

Matthias StepanMercator 
Institute for China Studies













At the congress, delegates will also be tasked with deciding on amendments to the party’s constitution. If Xi’s ideology is enshrined in the constitution [PDF] as “Xi Jinping Thought” or “Xi Jinping Theory,” he would become the first sitting leader since Mao to have his eponymous ideology incorporated. (The constitution directly references Mao Zedong Thought and Deng Xiaoping Theory; Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao’s contributions do not include their names.)   

Who is likely to be promoted?

China watchers have identified the following party stars as having the potential to be promoted this year:
  • Chen Min’er (b. 1960). Chen is a Xi protégé who served as his propaganda chief in Zhejiang Province. He was promoted to be the Chongqing party boss after the expulsion of Sun Zhengcai and is likely to be elevated to the Politburo. Because of his age, he could jump from his provincial posting to the Standing Committee, where he would be a potential successor to Xi.
  • Hu Chunhua (b. 1964). The youngest member of the Politburo, Hu is the party boss of Guangdong Province, the top performing provincial economy. He rose through the ranks of the Communist Youth League, which is linked to the power base of Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor.
  • Li Zhanshu (b. 1950). A longtime friend of Xi, Li is seen by many as the leader’s most powerful ally after Wang, the antigraft chief. Li was elevated to the Politburo in 2012 and is now director of the General Office of the Central Committee.
  • Han Zheng (b. 1954). Han served as mayor of Shanghai from 2003 to 2012, when he became the Shanghai party boss and a member of the Politburo. With his experience overseeing the commercial and financial capital of China, Han is poised to assume a seat on the Standing Committee.
  • Wang Yang (b. 1955). Currently seated on the Politburo, Wang is one of four State Council vice premiers, and his portfolio includes trade policy and bilateral talks with the United States. Previously, he held leadership positions in Chongqing and Guangdong. In addition to being a possible new Standing Committee member, he is also a candidate for the vice premiership dedicated to financial policy.
  • Wang Huning (b. 1955). Wang, favored for elevation to the Standing Committee, has directed the party’s Central Policy Research Office, which is responsible for drafting ideology and issuing political, social, and economic policy recommendations, since 2002. A Politburo member since 2012, he is a political theorist who has advised three consecutive leaders.
  • Li Yuanchao (b. 1950). Li rose to the Politburo in 2007, after serving as the party boss in Jiangsu, China’s second top economic performing province. He is currently the vice president and has played a hand in foreign affairs, including coordinating policy for Hong Kong and Macau.




































































































































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