Retaking Mosul: Soldiers of the Iraqi army raise their weapons in celebration on the outskirts of Qayyarah, Iraq, on October 19, 2016. A senior Iraqi general called on Iraqis fighting for the Islamic State group in Mosul to surrender as the operation to retake the militant-held city entered the third day. AP/PTI
Oct 21, 2016
To what extent the US Air Force will follow humanitarian norms in Mosul cannot yet be assessed. The battle for the core of the city will be equally bloody contingent upon the will of the defender, the resources available and the effectiveness or otherwise of the isolation and investment of the city
WITH ISIS (Daesh) under increasing pressure in Northern Iraq, it's future in West Asia may well be decided by the battle for Mosul which began on October 17. Western electronic media is beaming live pictures of the hostilities which have not yet begun in earnest. However, it will be a long-drawn and tragically a very bloody affair. How are battles for major cities fought in modern times and what major issues will decide the outcome of this battle? Before delving into any detail it may be remembered that Daesh is not down and out yet. It has the resources, the will and the capacity to fight; especially since it's so-called Amir, Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi is known to be in Mosul. Mosul is the second-largest city of Iraq, with a population which was earlier 2.5-million strong. Currently, approximately a little more than one million people reside there after Daesh defeated the Iraqi army in 2014. The presence of civilian population of this magnitude creates more problems for the attacker who has to restrict the use of firepower and tip toe around the populated zones, if the morals of warfare are implicitly followed. The defender, on the other hand, has the option of using the population as a human shield to prevent unrestricted movement of the offensive force. This isn’t conventional warfare so rules are grudgingly followed as is evident with the kind of destruction witnessed in Fallujah a few months ago. Cities usually have suburbs and even further away from the city centre are small rural clusters. These are used by the defender to prevent the offensive elements from closing with the city. Open stretches are mined with both anti-personnel and anti-tank mines and covered by missiles or anti-tank rockets to prevent tanks and infantry combat vehicles opening routes for the infantry. Once these peripheral zones are breached at the cost of heavy casualties, the defender will fall back on improvised explosive devices (IED) to cause more attrition as the battle moves into the city. The presence of population prevents the freedom of use of air power due to the high risk of collateral damage. In the case of the war in Syria and Iraq, estimates of civilian casualties from air strikes against cities have been extremely high. Entire stretches of Aleppo have been reduced to rubble and humanitarian considerations have not been in focus. To what extent the US air force will follow humanitarian norms in Mosul cannot yet be assessed. The battle for the core of the city will be equally bloody contingent upon the will of the defender, the resources available and, most importantly, the effectiveness or otherwise of the isolation and investment of the city. It is at that stage that the civilian population suffers the most. In Fallujah, one avenue of escape was kept open for the civilians to flee. Many Daesh fighters may attempt to exploit this opening too. What are isolation and investment? Before commencing the attack on a city, it is important for the attacker to cut off avenues of reinforcement or escape. The resultant isolation in the case of Mosul will ensure that Daesh fighters from elsewhere do not get in. Once the city is being reduced, there is no escape for Daesh to live and fight another day. The isolation involves placing tanks and ICVs centred on infantry deployments which are occupied astride the roads and tracks which act as avenues. Since Daesh would have deployed in the rural clusters around Mosul to deny close reconnaissance and a foothold into the city it is important for the Iraqi army to push back a major part of these elements to afford launch pads, footholds and other multiple options for the direction of commencement of the main attack against the city. The intent is to keep Daesh guessing and address the crust of the defences to punch holes through which the attacking troops will be funnelled. The use of artillery to reduce the buildings from where resistance will be intense will be restricted but again contingent upon the discretion of the attacker. Once the penetrations have been effected, it becomes a slogging match. A city like Mosul is not closely packed with buildings. There are sufficient open spaces where helicopters can hover or land disgorging Special Forces who would target some specific objectives like command centres and communication facilities. The chief weapons of the infantry of the Iraqi army should be the rocket launcher to punch holes and destroy pill boxes; the sniper; and the flame thrower. The term Iraqi army, is being generically used here to signify the attacking force. It is however well-known that the offensive against Mosul has three or even four elements. First, is the Iraqi army, largely Shia but with many Sunnis too. Second is the Kurdish Peshmerga of Masoud Barzani from the north. Third are the US Special Forces and air force. The Shia militias are an important element, although there are reports that they may not participate unless things go wrong for the Iraqi army. The latest entrant is Erdogan's Turkish army which is attempting to secure a role for itself in both Syria and northern Iraq to prevent undue influence and political significance to the Kurdish elements involved in the fight. The US has made it clear that the presences of any foreign armed elements require approval of the government at Baghdad and such approval has yet to be given. The planning, command and control and application of a force of such disparate groups with their diverse interests and operational methods will be a big challenge. The possibility of some elements of Iran also being directly involved cannot be ruled out. Russia is unlikely to be directly involved but it has promised full support to the Peshmerga in terms of arms and equipment supplies. Russia has also provided helicopters and artillery equipment to Iraq with the intent of ensuring that it retains influence in a fight which will be dictated by US advisers and planners. The bewildering issue currently is the emerging relationship between Turkey and Russia which is apparently taking a positive turn. How the Russian support to the Kurds of any hue and nationality will be taken by the Turkish leadership is unclear at present. The factor which should be uppermost in all minds is the effect that the operations and the intensity of Daesh resistance will have on the civil population. The displacement of the large population is not something the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA) is fully prepared for, financially or from infrastructure point of view. For a change in Iraq the human angle is being looked upon with great concern but clearly resources do not match requirement. The challenge is greatly multiplied by Daesh's propensity to remain unpredictable and resort to unethical practices such as a potential mass use of chemical weapons known to be in its possession. Finally, does the timing indicate any considerations other than military and strategic. With the US presidential election in another two weeks, could this have waited? That's the question no one will answer for now. The writer, a former GoC of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps, is now a Fellow with the Delhi Policy Group.
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Islamic State Group
Most recent
What Is IS?
David Aaronovitch untangles the ideological threads that make up the 'Islamic State'.
David Aaronovitch and a range of experts untangle the ideological threads that make up the 'Islamic State'. Following its attacks in Paris, debate has raged about whether the so-called Islamic State is a political movement or a religious one. But what if it's both, and more besides? David Aaronovitch calls on testimony from journalists, historians, political scientists and philosophers to explore the complex, sometimes conflicting elements that have shaped this organisation. He examines its place in the long tradition of Apocalyptic anti-Westernism - a tradition that has also appeared in a European Christian context, in Japan, and elsewhere. David traces the role of senior figures from Saddam Hussein's regime in its creation and thinking, and asks whether avenging the invasion of Iraq has simply given IS its opportunity to prosper, or provides its guiding mission. He explores the role of IS in the relationship between Sunni and Shia Islam, and its use of Islamic history in its worldview and its propaganda. And finally, David asks, how unusual is the Islamic State? Producers: Phil Tinline and Wesley Stephenson. ***********************************************************
Battle for Mosul: Inside the Kurdish advance on the last IS stronghold
The BBC's Orla Guerin was with Kurdish fighters in the village of Fazliya as it was seized from IS. **********************************************************
Isis Thompson talks to others who share their name with the radical Islamist State group.
Filmmaker Isis Thompson talks to others around the world who share their name with the Jihadist group Islamic State, finding out how its actions have impacted on their lives. In the last 12 months, the name Isis has gone from being a slightly obscure but pretty name associated with ancient Egypt, Bob Dylan and the dog off Downton Abbey to something a great deal darker. For Isis Thompson it's been uncomfortable, "Many is the time that I find myself breaking into a little bit of a sweat when I have to introduce myself. It's like having to say "Hi my name is Nazi Thompson". And then there is the inevitable reply, 'That's unfortunate.'" Hearing the experiences of others of the same name - from the chat up lines of Nottingham night clubs to Syrian refugee camps - Isis considers how a global news story can impact on an individual because of something as apparently arbitrary as their name. Presenter / Producer: Isis Thompson Executive Producer: Russell Finch A Somethin' Else production for BBC Radio 4. *****************************************************
Mike Thomson reports on an extraordinary series of diaries on life inside 'Islamic State'.
Ever since so-called Islamic State took full control of the city of Raqqa in north eastern Syria little has been known about day-to-day life there. Having declared it the capital of their self-proclaimed Capital, IS are determined to keep things that way. The penalty for speaking to the western media is beheading and at least 10 activists or journalists have lost their lives in this awful way. Few people now dare to talk. In addition IS forbids people in Raqqa from leaving the city without permission, so the only way out for many to get out is to put themselves in the hands of local people smuggling groups. To complete the isolation of people there, IS has introduced much tougher controls over local internet cafes, tightened monitoring of mobile phone networks and even banned the sale of televisions. But over the last year Today Programme Correspondent Mike Thomson has managed to make intermittent contact with a small anti-IS activist group in Raqqa called Al-Sharqiya 24, whose members are determined to speak out. He initially carried short interviews from London with a couple of their members. These were broadcast on Radio 4's Today programme and this gave us all a glimpse of what is happening there on the ground. But the outside world was still left without much idea of what day-to-day life was like in Raqqa. So one of the group's members agreed to write a series of personal diaries for the BBC about life for him and his family and friends there. What followed is an extraordinary and at time chilling insight into how so called Islamic State's brutality and injustices permeate just about every level of life in their now infamous capital. In order to protect the identity of the diarist. As well as his friends, family and fellow activists, all names and some other details have been changed. Mohammed, which is not his real name, takes us from life in what had been a relatively peaceful city, in the first two years of the war, to the takeover by so-called Islamic State. He reveals that within days women were being stopped in the street by IS fighters for failing to completely cover their bodies, while men, rather bizarrely, were ordered to always keep their trousers above ankle length. Both genders would be flogged, fined or made to attend compulsory Sharia classes for breaking such rules. IS brutality, our diarist tells us, soon gets very much worse. He passes a woman accused of adultery being stoned in the street and men alleged to have talked to foreign journalists or to have links with IS's enemies, being beheaded. He himself is subjected to forty lashes after cursing out loud on witnessing one of these public executions. Mohammed recounts how one day a friend came into the shop he works in and advised him to take a different route home that night, saying there was something he did not want him to see. Unable to resist his curiosity, Mohammed says he ignored this warning and took his normal way home, only to discover the beheaded body of an activist friend on public display. We learn how ever increasing taxes imposed by IS are pushing food prices beyond the reach of many ordinary people in Raqqa and that many shops have been forced to close because so much of the population are too afraid to walk the streets. Mohammed tells us that IS has even banned shops from selling televisions in order to limit what they know about life outside the city. Smoking has also been forbidden. We also hear of the air strikes that have killed so many in Raqqa. From bombing by President Assad's forces prior to IS's takeover of the city which killed his father, to the ongoing ones by Russia that continue to cause panic, alarm and loss of life. Getting the diaries out of Raqqa was often a heart-stopping experience. For days on end calls to try and contact our diarist and his group would go unanswered. The BBC team often wondered if he and many others had been caught by IS. It was a horrible feeling. On one occasion there was news that two anti-IS activists who had managed to get over the border into Turkey had been beheaded. Mike and his colleagues feared at first that one of them might be our diarist. Fortunately, we did manage to contact him the following day. What makes somebody speak out in the way Mohammed has, knowing that he is putting at risk the lives of almost ever he holds dear by doing so? From his diaries the answer to that question soon becomes very clear. Having seen friends and relatives butchered, the life of his community shattered and the local economy ruined by these notorious extremists, our courageous diarist believes he's fighting back by telling the BBC what is happening to his beloved city. *************************************************
As the battle against so-called Islamic State continues, Ian Pannell looks at the hidden dangers that face Iraqi government forces as they close in on Mosul. **************************************
Oil fires started by IS outside Mosul turn sheep black
As militants from so-called Islamic State retreated to Mosul from the northern Iraqi town of Qayyarah in August, they set oil wells on fire. The fires have blighted the town, polluting the air and turning local sheep black. BBC Persian's Nafiseh Kohnavard spoke to residents, who say their health has been affected. Video produced by Joe Inwood
India is offering to buy hundreds of fighter planes from foreign manufacturers - as long as the jets are made in India and with a local partner, air force officials say.
A deal for 200 single-engine planes produced in India - which the air force says could rise to 300 as it fully phases out ageing Soviet-era aircraft - could be worth anything from $13-$15 billion, experts say, potentially one of the country's biggest military aircraft deals.
After a deal to buy high-end Rafale planes from France's Dassault was scaled back to just 36 jets last month, the Indian Air Force is desperately trying to speed up other acquisitions and arrest a fall in operational strength, now a third less than required to face both China and Pakistan. PICS: India's military might packs a mean punch
Surrounded by hostile neighbours, India has fought numerous wars to protect its sovereignty and as deterrent to any future hostility, it has one of most well-armed, trained and disciplined military force in the world. We take a look at the men and the weapons of the Indian armed forces.
Picture: Indian Air Force Sukhoi Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft patrol the skies over the Himalayas.
An Indian Navy personnel gestures on the deck of the newly built INS Kochi, a guided missile destroyer, during a media tour at the naval dockyard in Mumbai, India September 28, 2015. The warship is the second ship in the Indian Navy to have multi-function surveillance and threat alert radar to provide information about targets for a long-range surface-to-air missile system, according to a media release issued by the Indian Navy.
An Indian Navy personnel looks on as he stands in front of the rocket launcher system mounted on the deck of the newly built INS Kochi, a guided missile destroyer, during a media tour at the naval dockyard in Mumbai, India September 28, 2015.
The Rafale is a 4.5 generation fighter aircraft and it has seen extensive action in the skies over Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali and Syria. Armed with the latest weaponry and avionics, the Rafale will give the IAF an edge over rivals in the region.
Aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya joined the Indian Navy in 2013 and it helps the navy in projecting power well beyond India’s maritime borders. Vikramaditya carries the lethal MiG-29K supersonic fighter aircraft which can decimate any aerial threat to the ship and also destroy ground targets with equal ease.
The indigenous Tejas fighter aircraft will be the mainstay of the Indian Air Force in the coming years once the Mark II enters service in 2022. Tejas will replace the MiG 21 and 27.
The indigenous Akash surface to air missile has been developed by DRDO and is in service with the army and the air force. A battery of Akash missiles can track 64 targets at a time and fire missiles at 12 of the most threatening ones, which include aircraft, ballistic missile, drones and other aerial targets.
T-90 main battle tanks and BMP-2 infantry combat vehicles practice manoeuvers in Rajasthan. Both T-90 and the BMP-2, which carries soldiers into battle, are at the top of their game and in the event of war, will lead the armoured thrust.
The Sukhoi Su-30 MKI is the mainstay of the Indian Air Force. The twin-seat fighter aircraft is the best aircraft in its class and is the only fighter in the air force which has the range and weapons load to strike deep into enemy territory.
Soldiers of the ‘ghatak’ platoon during Republic Day parade rehearsal in Kolkata on January 24, 2016. Each of Indian Army’s infantry battalion has a platoon (30 soldiers) trained as commandos. They are tasked with the most dangerous missions and they also act as pathfinders. They are equipped with a variety of weapons including Brügger & Thomet MP9 sub-machine guns, AK-47 and INSAS assault rifles.
The mighty Bofors FH77 155 mm howitzer, which has been at the center of controversy for so many years, proved its worth during the 1999 Kargil war when it was successfully used in direct-fire roll against Pakistan bunkers atop mountains captured by Pakistani troops. The Bofors was one of the weapons which won the war for India.
The Boeing C-17 Globemaster transport aircraft is a giant of the skies and it can transport troops and material across thousands of miles and land on unpaved, short runways. The aircraft proved very useful in disaster relief operations, flying in aid and flying out the sick and injured during natural calamities in Uttarakhand, Kashmir and other places.
Paratroopers jump out of an Indian Air Force C-130J Hercules transport aircraft. The C-130J’s main task will be to insert special operation forces into enemy territory during day/night all-weather conditions.
The MiG 29K fighter aircraft of the Indian Navy provides the teeth to INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier. This supersonic fighter aircraft is replacing the venerable subsonic Sea Harrier jump jet.
The indigenous Dhruv multi-purpose helicopter of the Indian Army carries a gypsy during a training exercise in the Thar desert in Rajasthan. Dhruv equips all three wings of the armed forces and also paramilitary forces.
Operatives of the special operations forces of the Indian Navy known as the Marine Commandos or Marcos, slither down from a Sea King helicopter to a waiting zodiac boat. Marcos are the most secretive special forces in India and not much is known about the operations they have carried out though during the 1999 Kargil war, they were said to have carried out numerous cross-LoC raids to neutralize enemy targets.
A marine commando, armed with an AK-103 automatic assault rifle and SIG P226 pistol, provides perimeter security around a helipad used by US president Barack Obama during his 2010 visit to Mumbai.
An Indian Air Force Beriev A-50EI Mainstay airborne early warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft comes into land. In the foreground anti-aircraft surface-to-air missile carrier with SAM-3 missiles loaded can be seen.
Army and civilian vehicles on the road from Srinagar, capital of Jammu and Kashmir, to Leh. The road passes very close to the LoC and during the Kargil War of 1999, it was under constant artillery fire from the Pakistan side
Soldiers from the army as well as the BSF have to brave elements, including heavy snow, to maintain constant vigil and thwart any infiltration bid from across the LoC
Soldiers bridge the gap between the two Kashmirs in a rare moment of peace between the two nations, which have been in constant confrontation over Kashmir since 1947
Caskets draped in the tricolor and carrying bodies of Indian army soldiers, who were martyred on the LoC in an encounter with a combined force of Pakistan army regular and militants from LeT in 2013, awaiting journey home
Pakistani currency found on the bodies of militants gunned down by the Indian army
49/49 SLIDES
But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's administration wants any further military planes to be built in India with an Indian partner to kickstart a domestic aircraft industry, and end an expensive addiction to imports.
Lockheed Martin said it is interested in setting up a production line for its F-16 plane in India for not just the Indian military, but also for export.
And Sweden's Saab has offered a rival production line for its Gripen aircraft, setting up an early contest for one of the biggest military plane deals in play.
"The immediate shortfall is 200. That would be the minimum we would be looking at," said an air officer briefed on the Make-in-India plans under which a foreign manufacturer will partner local firms to build the aircraft with technology transfer.
India's defence ministry has written to several companies asking if they would be willing to set up an assembly line for single-engine fighter planes in India and the amount of technology transfer that would happen, another government source said.
"We are testing the waters, testing the foreign firms' willingness to move production here and to find out their expectations," the person said.
OPERATIONAL GAPS
India's air force originally planned for 126 Rafale twin-engine fighters from Dassault, but the two sides could not agree on the terms of local production with a state-run Indian firm and settled for 36 planes in a fly-away condition.
Adding to the military's problems is India's three-decade effort to build a single-engine fighter of its own which was meant to be the backbone of the air force. Only two of those Light Combat Aircraft, called Tejas, have been delivered to the air force which has ordered 140 of them.
The Indian Air Force is down to 32 operational squadrons compared with the 45 it has said are necessary, and in March the vice chief Air Marshal B.S. Dhanoa told parliament's defence committee that it didn't have the operational strength to fight a two front war against China and Pakistan.
JET MAKERS RESPOND
Saab said it was ready to not only produce its frontline Gripen fighter in India, but help build a local aviation industry base.
"We are very experienced in transfer of technology – our way of working involves extensive cooperation with our partners to establish a complete ecosystem, not just an assembly line," said Jan Widerström, Chairman and Managing Director, Saab India Technologies.
He confirmed Saab had received the letter from the Indian government seeking a fourth generation fighter. A source close to the company said that while there was no minimum order set in stone for it to lay down a production line, they would expect to build at least 100 planes at the facility.
Lockheed Martin said it had responded to the defence ministry's letter with an offer to transfer the entire production of its F-16 fighter to India.
"Exclusive F-16 production in India would make India home to the world's only F-16 production facility, a leading exporter of advanced fighter aircraft, and offer Indian industry the opportunity to become an integral part of the world's largest fighter aircraft supply chain," Abhay Paranjape, National Executive for Lockheed Martin Aeronautics Business Development in India said in an email.
U.S. TOP SUPPLIER
Lockheed's offer comes on the back of expanding U.S.-India military ties in which Washington has emerged as India's top arms supplier in recent years, ousting old ally Russia.
Earlier this year Boeing also offered India its twin-engine F/A-18 Hornets, but the level of technology transfer was not clear.
India has never previously attempted to build a modern aircraft production line, whether military or civilian. State-run Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) has assembled Russian combat jets including the Su-30, but these are under licensed production.
"We have never had control over technology. This represents the most serious attempt to build a domestic base. A full or a near-full tech transfer lays the ground for further development," said retired Indian air marshal M. Matheswaran, a former adviser at HAL.
He said the Indian government would be looking at producing at least 200 fighters, and then probably some more, to make up for the decades of delay in modernising the air force.
The armed forces of India are the last bastion of the State, protectors of its sovereignty and upholders of its constitutional values, and, since the nation’s independence in 1947, have always answered the call of the nation admirably, unmindful of the supreme sacrifices they have made in the line of duty. The world over, the Indian armed forces are admired by other militaries for their professionalism and discipline. They are, undoubtedly, the most loved and revered institution in India. Nevertheless, it is also a painfully inexplicable fact that successive governments, specifically the politico-bureaucratic elite, have been hitting at their esteem and pride, for reasons that no other democratic nation in the world will be able to fathom. Read:Lowering the status of the armed forces will affect their morale It is an established fact that since 1947, the most powerful instrument of the nation has been kept out of macro-level decision-making even in security and strategic matters! In a democracy, civilian supremacy over all other organs is an unquestionable principle but that means the supremacy of the elected government and not of the civilian bureaucracy! However, in India, a self-serving bureaucracy has ensured, through an ill-informed political leadership, to downgrade the status, pay and allowances, pensions and privileges of its armed forces vis-à-vis other central government services. Successive Pay Commissions since 1973, ironically, after India’s glorious military victory in 1971, which led to the creation of Bangladesh, heralded the marginalising of the military in more than a dozen ways.
Read: Indian soldiers were bravest, says WW-II British army commander Coming to the current times, the grave injustices to the armed forces and the Seventh Pay Commission’s anomalies with regard to the three services have been conveyed by the service chiefs to the Prime Minister. Reportedly, the chiefs said that this Pay Commission had “artificially suppressed” the salaries of service officers and, at each rank, service officers have ended up being lower than their civilian counterparts in the pay scale. Further, the non-acceptance of their demand for ‘Non-Functional Upgrade’ has widened the gap with other central government employees. Even ex-servicemen with 100% disabilities have been given short shrift. For example, a warrant officer of the Air Force with a 100% disability will get Rs 12,000 per month whereas his civilian counterpart Rs 27,690! It is also a matter of record that the anomalies of the Sixth Pay Commission, presented to the government more than 10 years ago, still remain uncorrected!
One of the most painful realities in the downgrading of the armed forces has been their decline in the government’s order of precedence (OOP) vis-à-vis their civilian counterparts. The OOP represents the protocol of the official hierarchy of the Republic of India and thus the pride and status of all its government employees. This decline has been going on for decades. A few days ago, a letter supposedly issued by the ministry of defence and that has gone viral in the media is the downgrade of the armed forces officers compared to their civilian counterparts of the armed forces headquarters cadre. This has resulted in much resentment among the services. It appears from media reports that defence minister Manohar Parrikar has assured the armed forces that any wrong orders issued will be rescinded by his ministry with immediate effect. The armed forces want nothing from the government but that well-established and time-honoured equivalence with their civil counterparts must not be disturbed because any breakdown in the arrangement will affect the working relations between them and their civilian counterparts. Generally high on symbolism, the government would do well to implement the ‘Chanakya Niti’ of having well-equipped and, importantly, highly motivated armed forces. It is a painful fact that not many suitable youngsters today wish to wear the uniform to serve the nation!
The author is a retired lieutenant general and the first chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency
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