Battle of Bakhmut 2022

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#UKRAINE #MILITARY #WAR-Why Putin is Weirdly Betting the Entire War On Bakhmut

                                                                           

                   Battle of Bakhmut 2022

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Battle of Bakhmut
Part of the eastern Ukraine offensive's Battle of Donbas in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
No man's land in the outskirts of Bakhmut
Date 1 August 2022 – present (4 months and 5 days) Location Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine 48.5950°N 38.0000°ECoordinates: 48.5950°N 38.0000°E Status Ongoing
Belligerents
Russia  Donetsk People's Republic  Luhansk People's Republic	Ukraine
Commanders and leaders
Aleksey Nagin †[1]	Oleksandr Tarnavskiy[2]  Yurii Bereza[3]
Units involved
Russian Armed Forces  Donetsk People's Militia[4]  PMC Wagner[5]	Ukrainian Armed Forces 93rd Mechanized Brigade[4] 58th Motorized Brigade[6] 53rd Mechanized Brigade[7] 57th Motorized Brigade[8] Dzhokhar Dudayev Battalion[9]
Casualties and losses
Unknown, presumed heavy	Unknown, presumed heavy
120+ civilians killed[10]

show v t e 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine

The Battle of Bakhmut is an ongoing series of military engagements near the city of Bakhmut between Ukrainian Armed Forces and the Russian Armed Forces during the battle for Donbas in 2022. Shelling of Bakhmut began in May 2022, but the main assault towards the city began on 1 August after Ukrainian forces withdrew from Popasna.^[11] The main assault force was primarily formed by mercenaries from the Russian paramilitary organization Wagner Group.^[12][5]

Attacks on the city intensified in November 2022 as assaulting Russian forces were reinforced by units redeployed from the Kherson front, together with newly mobilized recruits.^[13][14] As of late 2022, The Bakhmut front was one of the few places where Russia remained on the offensive.^[15] By this time, much of the front line had descended into fierce trench warfare, with both sides suffering high casualties without any significant advances.^[16]

Contents

• 1Prelude
• 2Battle
• 3Analysis
• 4References

Prelude

Main articles: Battle of Donbas (2022) and Eastern Ukraine offensive

Apartment bloc in Bakhmut after a Russian bombing. The city has been under shelling since May.^[17]

During the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, a key Russian goal was to capture the Donbas region, consisting of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Following the battles of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in early July, Russia and separatist forces captured all of Luhansk oblast, and the battlefield shifted towards the cities of Sloviansk, Bakhmut, and Soledar. Prior to the battle in Bakhmut, Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskiy claimed that Russia held a five-to-one manpower advantage over Ukraine along the eastern front.^[18]

Starting on May 17, Russian forces began shelling Bakhmut, killing five people including a two-year-old child.^[19][20] After the fall of Popasna on May 22, Ukrainian forces withdrew away from the city to reinforce positions at Bakhmut.^[11] Meanwhile, Russian forces managed to advance on the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, endangering the remaining Ukrainian troops in the Lysychansk-Sievierodonetsk area.^[21][22] The Russian checkpoint along the highway was later demolished, although fighting resumed on May 30 along the Kostiantynivka-Bakhmut highway, where Ukrainian forces successfully defended the highway.^[23][24]

Shelling of Bakhmut continued throughout the rest of June and July, escalating after the battle of Siversk began on July 3.^[25] On July 25, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Vuhlehirska Power Station, along with the nearby town of Novoluhanske, giving Russian and separatist forces a "small tactical advantage" towards Bakhmut.^[26] Two days later on July 27, Russian shelling of Bakhmut killed three civilians and wounded three more.^[27][28]

Battle

Ukrainian trench during the battle, November 2022

Ukrainian soldier in the trenchlines of Bakhmut, November 2022

On 1 August, Russian forces launched massive ground attacks on settlements south and southeast of Bakhmut. Both the Russian Ministry of Defense and pro-Russian Telegram pages claimed that the battle of Bakhmut had begun.^[29][30] The following day, Ukraine reported that Russian forces had ramped up airstrikes and shelling of the city, beginning a ground attack on the southeastern part of the city.^[31] Bombardment continued through 3 August.^[32] On 4 August, Wagner Group mercenaries managed to break through Ukrainian defenses and reach Patrice Lumumba street, on the eastern outskirts of Bakhmut.^[33]

On 10 August, Russian forces bombarded the central part of the city, killing seven civilians and injuring six more. Many buildings were damaged in the strike. In the following days, Russian forces continued to push towards Bakhmut from the south, with the Ukrainian general staff stating on 14 August that Russian forces had achieved "partial success" near Bakhmut but offering no specifics.^[34]

On 20 September, Aleksey Nagin, a commander in the Wagner Group, was killed near Bakhmut.^[35] Wagner Group forces on the frontlines in Bakhmut are also being bolstered by prisoners from Russia and allied breakaway states.^[36]

Night shelling in the city center on September 21 burned the Martynov Palace of Culture, where the humanitarian headquarters worked. During the extinguishing of the fire, the local fire department was shelled, which reported that two SES staff were injured and equipment damaged.^[37] At night, a five-story building was partially destroyed by Russian shelling.^[38][39]

On 7 October, Russian forces advanced into the villages of Zaitseve and Opytne on the southern and southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut, while on 10 October, the UK Defence Ministry claimed that Russian troops advanced closer to Bakhmut.^[40][41] On 12 October, Russian forces claimed to have captured Opytne and Ivanhrad, although these towns were still contested.^[42].Ukrainian sources said a minor counteroffensive on October 24 pushed Russian forces from some factories on the eastern outskirts of the city.^[43]

On 1 November, Ukrainian journalist Yurii Butusov described the evolving nature of the battle in an interview. Butusov noted that Russian forces had suffered "huge losses every day" assaulting Bakhmut and its outskirts since early May, but insisted that they were adapting their tactics against increasingly exhausted Ukrainian defenders. He noted that the Russians were concentrating multiple small groups of infantry to break defense lines on "narrow" sections of the front.^[44]

On 10 November, the Ukrainians claimed that the Wagner group had suffered nearly 140 casualties in the last 24 hours, including over 40 men killed, in fighting near Bakhmut.^[45] On 27 November, The New York Times reported a high level of casualties for both armies, also placing the number of Ukrainian wounded at 290 in the previous 36 hours.^[46] The fighting around Bakhmut had reportedly descended into trench warfare conditions, with neither side making any significant breakthroughs and hundreds of casualties reported daily amid fierce shelling and artillery duels.^[47][16]

Russian forces breached defense lines south of Bakhmut in late November, advancing in Opytne through November 28 and 29, beginning a minor offensive to the south of Bakhmut and capturing the villages of Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia.^[48][49] Wagner troops attacked Kurdyumivka, adjacent to Ozarianivka, with some Russian milbloggers claiming the settlement was captured.^[50] Russian forces also attacked Ukrainian positions southeast of Bakhmut.^[51][52] On 3 December, Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesperson for Ukraine's Eastern Command, described the Bakhmut front as "the most bloody, cruel and brutal sector ... in the Russian-Ukrainian war so far," adding that the Russians had "conducted 261 attacks with artillery of various calibers in the past 24 hours alone."^[53] The same day, a Georgia military volunteer told the media that a group of Georgian volunteers had been surrounded during clashes near Bakhmut. The commander was wounded and five or six volunteers, serving in Ukraine's 57th Brigade, had been killed, prompting Georgian president Salome Zourabichvili to express condolences.^[8]

Analysis

The Battle of Bakhmut has been described as one of the bloodiest battles of the 21st century, with the battlefield being described as a "vortex" for both the Ukrainian and Russian militaries.^[54] With extremely high casualties, very little ground gained, and shell-pocked landscapes, Western media and the United States government have compared fighting in Bakhmut like nothing seen since World War I.^[55][56][57]

The actual strategic value of Bakhmut has been considered dubious by many analysts. After the Kharkiv counteroffensive and the Liberation of Kherson, the Bakhmut area remained one of the few areas where Russia was on the offensive as of late 2022. Many analysts believe the main drive is that the Wagner Group was likely assigned the job of capturing Bakhmut by the Kremlin, and it would could bring significant monetary and political rewards for its leader Yevgeny Prigozhin.^[15]

Russian assault forces have primarily composed of Wagner PMC mercenaries and newly mobilized recruits. In mid-November, there were some reports that Russia may have redeployed some forces from the Kherson front to areas near Bakhmut in support of Wagner Group fighters, as well as reinforcements from newly conscripted forces, following the Russian withdrawal from Kherson. The Ukrainians were reportedly also reinforcing Bakhmut, including special forces and territorial defense units.^[14][47]

Russia has targeted Bakhmut with Iranian made drones after 450 of them were sent to Russia in mid-October.^[58]

References

1. ^ Bickerton, James (30 September 2022). "Russian Wagner commander killed in Ukraine's Donbas". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
2. ^ "The Fight to Survive Russia's Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine". The New Yorker. 7 June 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 16 August 2022.
3. ^ Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Yermak, Natalia; Hicks, Tyler (26 September 2022). "Two Cities, Two Armies: Pivot Points in the Fight in Ukraine's East". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 2 October 2022.
4. ^ Jump up to:^a b David Axe (25 October 2022). "A Fierce Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade Is Routing Russian Mercenaries In One Symbolic Eastern Town". Forbes.
5. ^ Jump up to:^a b Higgins, Andrew; Bigg, Matthew Mpoke (6 November 2022). "Russia Looks to Private Militia to Secure a Victory in Eastern Ukraine". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 29 November 2022.
6. ^ Kramer, Andrew E. (11 August 2022). "Rhythm of War: A Thunderous Blast, and Then a Coffee Break". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 30 November 2022.
7. ^ "Бои за Бахмут – 53-я бригада ВСУ просит о помощи". ВЕСТИ (in Russian). 26 November 2022. Retrieved 3 December 2022.
8. ^ Jump up to:^a b "Five Georgian military volunteers killed in Ukraine: encircled near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast". Yahoo News. 4 December 2022.
9. ^ "Meet the Chechens fighting Russia in Ukraine". Kyivindependent. 25 November 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
10. ^ Campbell, Joseph (5 November 2022). "'We're holding on', says deputy mayor of besieged Ukrainian city". Reuters.
11. ^ Jump up to:^a b RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, MAY 22, ISW, archived from the original on 23 May 2022, retrieved 27 May 2022
12. ^ Landry, Carole (28 November 2022). "Russia's Battle for Bakhmut". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
13. ^ Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Yermak, Natalia; Hicks, Tyler (27 November 2022). "In Ukraine, Bakhmut Becomes a Bloody Vortex for 2 Militaries". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 29 November 2022.
14. ^ Jump up to:^a b Vasilyeva, Nataliya (17 November 2022). "Heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine raises fears Moscow is reinforcing new epicentre of war". The Telegraph. ISSN 0307-1235. Retrieved 18 November 2022.
15. ^ Jump up to:^a b Brown, Chris (1 December 2022). "Why the battle for the small city of Bakhmut is so important to both Russia and Ukraine". Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 3 December 2022.
16. ^ Jump up to:^a b "Fighting in Ukraine descends into trench warfare as Russia looks to break through". The Guardian. 28 November 2022.
17. ^ "In Ukraine's Bakhmut, war is never far away". France24. 12 July 2022. Archived from the original on 15 August 2022. Retrieved 23 August 2022.
18. ^ "The Fight to Survive Russia's Onslaught in Eastern Ukraine". The New Yorker. 7 June 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 16 August 2022.
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20. ^ "Кількість жертв обстрілу будинку у Бахмуті зросла до п'яти, серед них дворічна дитина". Укрінформ. 18 May 2022. Archived from the original on 19 May 2022. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
21. ^ "Траса Бахмут-Лисичанськ опинилася під обстрілом ворога". Мілітарний. 24 May 2022. Archived from the original on 24 May 2022. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
22. ^ "Окупанти прорвали українську оборону в районі Попасної". Ukrainian Military Pages. 25 May 2022. Archived from the original on 25 May 2022. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
23. ^ "Ukrajinske trupe brane vitalni put na istoku". Free Europe. 30 May 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 17 June 2022.
24. ^ "ЗСУ ліквідували ворожий блокпост на трасі з Бахмута до Лисичанська". Букви. 26 May 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 27 May 2022.
25. ^ "Russians trying to improve tactical position in Bakhmut direction". Ukrinform. 16 June 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 17 June 2022.
26. ^ "Russians prepare offensive on Siversk, Soledar – General Staff". 26 July 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
27. ^ "New photos show heartbreaking destruction in Bakhmut, Ukraine". 28 July 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
28. ^ "July 27, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news". 28 July 2022. Archived from the original on 3 August 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
29. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 1". Critical threats. 1 August 2022. Archived from the original on 22 August 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
30. ^ "August 1, 2022 Russia-Ukraine news". CNN. 2 August 2022. Archived from the original on 4 August 2022. Retrieved 4 August 2022.
31. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 2". Critical threats. 2 August 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
32. ^ "War update: Enemy focusing efforts in Bakhmut direction". Ukr inform. 3 August 2022. Archived from the original on 2 October 2022. Retrieved 3 August 2022.
33. ^ "The Wagner PMC, supported by Russian artillery, was able to break through to Patrice Lumumba Street in Bakhmut from the eastern side. Insider reports that an AFU roadblock was destroyed in the – XUA-фото войны". 4 August 2022. Archived from the original on 4 August 2022. Retrieved 4 August 2022.
34. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 14". The Institute for the Study of War. 14 August 2022. Archived from the original on 25 August 2022. Retrieved 15 August 2022.
35. ^ Bickerton, James (30 September 2022). "Russian Wagner commander killed in Ukraine's Donbas". Newsweek. Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 1 October 2022.
36. ^ Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Yermak, Natalia; Hicks, Tyler (26 September 2022). "Two Cities, Two Armies: Pivot Points in the Fight in Ukraine's East". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 1 October 2022.
37. ^ "В Бахмуті палає найстаріший палац культури, пошкоджена будівля ДСНС та немає води. Наслідки обстрілів на 8 вересня (ФОТО, ВІДЕО)". Вільне радіо. 8 September 2022. Archived from the original on 21 September 2022. Retrieved 18 September 2022.
38. ^ "У Бахмуті під завалами будинку знайшли тіло загиблого". Українська правда (in Ukrainian). Archived from the original on 20 September 2022. Retrieved 18 September 2022.
39. ^ Суспільне (15 September 2022). "З-під завалів зруйнованого будинку в Бахмуті рятувальники витягнули чоловіка. Рятувальні роботи продовжуються". Суспільне | Новини. Суспільне. Archived from the original on 20 September 2022. Retrieved 18 September 2022.
40. ^ "Ukraine battles Russian advance in key town of Bakhmut". Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 10 October 2022.
41. ^ "Russian troops moving closer to the eastern Ukrainian town of Bakhmut, UK says". Reuters. 10 October 2022. Archived from the original on 13 October 2022. Retrieved 10 October 2022.
42. ^ "Fighter of 128th brigade Mykhailo Pokydchenko killed in Opytne area. PHOTO". Censor.NET. 6 December 2016. Retrieved 14 January 2019.
43. ^ "A Fierce Ukrainian Mechanized Brigade Is Routing Russian Mercenaries In One Symbolic Eastern Town". Forbes. 25 October 2022.
44. ^ "Journalist Yuriy Butusov tells Radio NV about Russian gains and losses at Bakhmut". Radio NV. 2 December 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
45. ^ "Ukraine says Wagner group suffered some 140 casualties in a day".
46. ^ "In Ukraine, Bakhmut Becomes a Bloody Vortex for 2 Militaries". The New York Times. 27 November 2022. Retrieved 28 November 2022.
47. ^ Jump up to:^a b "WWI near Bakhmut, Ukraine waits for long-range shells, new Russian strikes expected. What happened on the front line on November 28?". The Insider. 29 November 2022. Retrieved 1 December 2022.
48. ^ "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 29". ISW. Russian milbloggers reiterated claims that Russian forces advanced southwest of Bakhmut, taking Andriivka, Ozarianivka, and Zelenopillia (13km south of Bakhmut)
49. ^ "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 29". ISW. A Russian milblogger also claimed that Russian forces made progress in Opytne (4km south of Bakhmut) and began a ground attack on Klishchiivka (7km southwest of Bakhmut) on November 29
50. ^ https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-29, Wagner forces captured Kurdyumivka (13km southwest of Bakhmut)
51. ^ "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, NOVEMBER 29". ISW. Russian forces continued to make limited gains around Bakhmut amid reports of heavy fighting in the area on November 29. Geolocated footage posted on November 29 shows that Russian forces advanced on the southeastern outskirts of Bakhmut.
52. ^ "Invasion Day 278 – Summary". MilitaryLand. 28 November 2022.
53. ^ "Bakhmut 'has reputation as most bloody, cruel and brutal part of front'". Yahoo News. 3 December 2022. Retrieved 4 December 2022.
54. ^ Gibbons-Neff, Thomas; Yermak, Natalia; Hicks, Tyler (27 November 2022). "In Ukraine, Bakhmut Becomes a Bloody Vortex for 2 Militaries". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
55. ^ "Senior Defense Official and Senior Military Official Hold a Background Briefing". U.S. Department of Defense. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
56. ^ Altman, Howard (29 November 2022). "Ukraine Situation Report: The Bloody Battle For Bakhmut". The Drive. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
57. ^ Ellyatt, Holly. "Trenches, mud and death: One Ukrainian battlefield looks like something out of World War I". CNBC. Retrieved 2 December 2022.
58. ^ "Iran is preparing to send additional weapons including ballistic missiles to Russia to use in Ukraine, western officials say | CNN Politics". CNN. November 2022.

ADDITIONAL  INFORMATION

2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine
Part of the Russo-Ukrainian War
hide Overview General Timeline  Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Control of cities Foreign fighters Information war Legality Map Order of battle Peace negotiations Proposed no-fly zone Reparations Women Prelude Reactions Disinformation  Ukraine bioweapons conspiracy theory Ukraine and weapons of mass destruction 2021 Russia–United States summit 2021 Black Sea incident 2021–2022 Belarus–European Union border crisis "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" Crimea Platform Zapad 2021 Ukraine cyberattacks Union Resolve 2022 Evacuation of the Donetsk PR and Luhansk PR Mobilization in Donetsk PR and Luhansk PR "Address concerning the events in Ukraine" "On conducting a special military operation" Background Dissolution of the Soviet Union Annexation of Crimea  reactions War in Donbas  2022 timeline Minsk agreements humanitarian situation international recognition of the Donetsk PR and Luhansk PR Putinism  Foundations of Geopolitics Novorossiya Rashism Russian irredentism Russian imperialism Foreign relations Russia–Ukraine Belarus–Ukraine Belarus–Russia Russia–United States Ukraine–NATO  enlargement of NATO eastward expansion controversy in Russia open door policy
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• This page was last edited on 5 December 2022, at 18:54 (UTC

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 5, 2022

 

ASSESSMENT

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN, DECEMBER 5,2022

Layne Philipson, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Mason Clark

December 5, 3:00 pm ET 

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, December 5. ISW will resume regular updates on December 6. This report discusses today’s wave of Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and the likely Ukrainian UAV strikes against Russian strategic air bases on December 5.

Russian forces conducted another wave of missile strikes targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure on December 5. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported on December 5 that Russian forces conducted missile strikes targeting Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odesa, Vinnetysia, and Zaporizhia Oblasts.[1]  The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 of over 70 missiles launched.[2] Deputy Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Kyrylo Tymoshenko Kyrylo Tymoshenko stated that the Russian strikes damaged a power supply line in Sumy Oblast.[3] ISW previously assessed on December 2 that while Ukrainian and Western-provided air defenses are further reducing Russia’s dwindling supply of precision munitions, the small percentage of Russian strikes getting through Ukraine’s air defenses are nevertheless having significant effects on Ukrainian critical infrastructure.[4]

Ukrainian forces likely conducted strikes on two Russian strategic airbases on December 5, inflicting light damage while demonstrating Ukraine’s ability to strike Russian rear areas and possibly disrupt Russia’s campaign of strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure. The Russian Ministry of Defense and several mil bloggers reported that Ukrainian forces used UAVs to strike the Engels-2 airbase in Saratov Oblast (approximately 315 miles from Ukrainian territory) and the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast (approximately 285 miles from Ukrainian territory).[5] Both airbases house elements of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet, which Russia has employed to strike Ukraine throughout the war. Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak tweeted that the Kremlin should have known that “if something is launched into other countries’ airspace, sooner or later unknown flying objects will return to departure point.” Still, Ukrainian authorities have not formally claimed responsibility for the strikes as of publication.[6] Russian sources claimed that a Ukrainian drone struck aircraft at the Engels-2 Airbase in Saratov Oblast, Russia, damaging strategic bombers and missile carriers.[7] Russian sources also claimed that a Ukrainian drone destroyed a Russian fuel truck at the Dyagilevo Air Base in Ryazan Oblast, Russia.[8] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that the strike intentionally targeted Russian long-range aircraft.[9] Ukrainian forces likely sought to disrupt Russian strikes against Ukrainian critical infrastructure and demonstrate Ukraine’s ability to target Russian strategic assets.

Anger over the Russian military’s inability to prevent the Ukrainian strikes on Russian strategic airbases over 280 miles from Ukrainian positions outweighed praise for the latest round of strikes against Ukraine within the Russian mil blogger community. Russian mil bloggers criticized Russian officials for failing to anticipate and prevent the drone strikes at the Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases on December 5.[10] Select mil bloggers noted that Russian military officials have not adequately protected the airbases, with some suggesting that Russian officials did not adequately defend the bases despite knowing that they were clear targets for Ukrainian strikes.[11] Several prominent Russian mil bloggers claimed that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups must have launched the strike against the Engels-2 air base from inside Russian territory, asserting either that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups are active inside Russia or – if the UAVs were launched from Ukrainian territory – that Moscow is under threat from Ukrainian territory.[12]

Russian mil bloggers also called on Russian military officials to authorize significant retaliation strikes against Ukraine and intensify counter-terrorism measures within Russian territory.[13] The mil blogger community complained that Russian military officials do not consider their suggestions and ignore open-source intelligence (OSINT) and that, had Russian officials taken milbloggers’ warnings into account, the two strikes on Russian military bases would have likely been prevented.[14] Select mil bloggers suggested that the strikes on Engels-2 and Dyagilevo Air Bases threaten Russia’s legitimacy as a nuclear power as the strikes damaged aircraft capable of carrying multiple nuclear weapons.[15]

Key inflections in ongoing military operations on December 5:

• Russian forces continued to defend their positions along the Svatove-Kreminna line against Ukrainian attacks.[16]

• Russian forces continued to make incremental gains around Bakhmut but have not yet surrounded the city, and conducted offensive operations in the Avdiivka-Donetsk City area. Ukrainian sources claimed that small Russian assault groups of 15-20 personnel are attempting to penetrate Ukrainian lines.[17]

• Russian occupation officials continued the forceful transfer of Ukrainian children from occupied territories in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts to Russia under the guise that the children require special medical care.[18]

• Russian forces shelled more than 20 settlements on the right (west) bank of the Dnipro River and continued to strike Kherson City.[19]

• Russian senator Andrey Kleshas of the ruling United Russia party proposed the Kremlin restrict the ability of Russians who fled the country to avoid mobilization to secure work upon returning to Russia.[20]

• Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Russian military, in concert with the Russian Internal Ministry, is taking steps to launch an electronic database by February 2023 to document the personal details of all servicemen and restrict their movement even when out of uniform.[21]

Control-of-terrain maps for December 5:

 

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References

[1] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UnEgx5urC3QKgw8osd...; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/12/05/u-povitryanyh-sylah-rozpovily-zvidky-rosiyany-zdijsnyuyut-pusky-raket/; https://www.facebook.com/npcukrenergo/posts/517196487115848; https://t.me/vrogov/6360; https://t.me/zoda_gov_ua/15228

[2] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UnEgx5urC3QKgw8osd...

[3] https://t.me/tymoshenko_kyrylo/2964

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign....

[5] https://suspilne dot media/331704-u-rosii-na-odnomu-z-aerodromiv-upav-bezpilotnik-na-insomu-zagorivsa-benzovoz-zmi/; https://t.me/mod_russia/22378; https://ria dot ru/20221205/vzryv-1836326992.html; https://t.me/mod_russia/22378.

[6] https://twitter.com/Podolyak_M/status/1599696436257357824?s=20&t=vtjNXZc....

[7] https://suspilne dot media/331704-u-rosii-na-odnomu-z-aerodromiv-upav-bezpilotnik-na-insomu-zagorivsa-benzovoz-zmi/; https://t.me/mod_russia/22378

[8] https://ria dot ru/20221205/vzryv-1836326992.html; https://t.me/mod_russia/22378

[9] https://t.me/mod_russia/22378

[10] https://t.me/notes_veterans/6924

[11] https://t.me/milinfolive/94004; https://t.me/voenacher/34882; https://t.me/grey_zone/16045; https://t.me/voenacher/34882; https://t.me/dva_majors/6464

[12] https://t.me/readovkanews/48232; https://t.me/grey_zone/16042

[13] https://t.me/readovkanews/48232; https://t.me/notes_veterans/6924; https://t.me/rlz_the_kraken/54763

[14] https://t.me/vladlentatarsky/17844; https://t.me/notes_veterans/6924

[15] https://t.me/milinfolive/94006; https://t.me/milinfolive/94006

[16] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rARi5agWknZfgpCW5M...

[17] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rARi5agWknZfgpCW5M... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rARi5agWknZfgpCW5M... https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02UnEgx5urC3QKgw8osd...; https://armyinform dot com.ua/2022/12/05/vorog-ne-polyshaye-sproby-zahopyty-bahmut-prote-nashi-syly-oborony-dayut-gidnu-vidsich-sergij-cherevatyj/; https://t.me/rybar/41725

[18] https://t.me/glava_lnr_info/547

[19] https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/pfbid02rARi5agWknZfgpCW5M...

[20] https://t.me/readovkanews/48225; https://meduza.io/news/2022/12/05/senator-klishas-predlozhil-vvesti-ogra....

[21] https://gur dot gov.ua/content/v-rf-vvodiat-totalnyi-kontrol-viiskovozoboviazanykh-obmezhuiuchy-ikhni-hromadianski-prava.html; https://sprotyv dot mod dot gov.ua/2022/12/05/rf-planuye-novu-hvylyu-mobilizacziyi-dlya-czogo-stvoryuyut-speczialnyj-reyestr/.

 Attachments: 

Ukraine Project

DraftUkraineCOTDecember05,2022.png

Kharkiv Battle Map Draft December 05,2022.png

Donetsk Battle Map Draft December 05,2022.png

Kherson-Mykolaiv Battle Map Draft December 05,2022.png