PROFILE : Pakistan army's General Qamar Javed Bajwa

SOURCE:
http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/profile-pakistan-armys-general-qamar-javed-bajwa/ar-AAkOKUE?ocid=iehp#image=1




               Pakistan’s New Army Chief

                  – PSYCHO Analysis

 

 

 

 

 

                                 TWO  OF  'FOUR' PARTS

 

Linked To

   

[A] PART ONE

 http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/11/pakistans-new-army-chief-psycho-analysis_43.html

 

[B] PART TWO

http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/11/profile-pakistan-armys-general-qamar.html

[C]  PART THREE
http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/12/pakistans-new-army-chief-general-bajwa.html

[d]  PART FOUR
http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/12/can-pak-army-chief-change-his-stripes.html 

                              PROFILE 

 

 Pakistan army's General Qamar Javed Bajwa

 

 

 

 

General Raheel Sharif is due to step down has stepped down  as Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff  when his three-year term expired on November 29.

In his place, Lieutenant-General Qamar Javed Bajwa has been 
appointed in a rather smooth transition in accordance with the constitution.

The change of guard is being seen as an unusually amicable one given that  Pakistan's military has played a prominent role in the country's politics since its independence in 1947, staging three coups.

Bajwa's appointment also comes at a crucial time when relations between India and Pakistan are tense along the Kashmir border. 

In Pakistan, under the constitution, the prime minister is head of the country's executive, but the army controls domestic security affairs, the spy agency [the Directorate-General for Inter-Services Intelligence, better known as ISI] and the defence and foreign policies.


READ MORE: US must challenge Pakistan's duplicity on Afghanistan


The announcement on Saturday by Nawaz Sharif, the Pakistan prime minister, is being described by analysts as an act that places Pakistan's civil-military relationship on a firm footing.
"General Bajwa, whom I have met a few times, is someone who will not interfere a lot in the civilian government matters," Lieutenant-General (retd) Talat Masood, a defence analyst, told Al Jazeera.

"He will indeed give his advice on certain things but will not dominate the political scene, which will prove to be very helpful in terms of relationship with the government."


Bajwa was chosen over at least three contenders:  Lieutenant-General Zubair Hayat,  the army's chief of general staff, who was previously responsible for the security of the country's nuclear programme; Lieutenant-General Ishfaq Nadeem, the commander of II Corps, Multan, who was viewed by many as the favourite for the job; and Lieutenant-General Javed Iqbal Ramday,  Bahawalpur Corps Commander.


Bajwa's current designation is Inspector General (Training and Evaluation) at the general headquarters (GHQ) of the Pakistan army, a position Raheel also held before he became the chief of army staff.


Bajwa was the general officer in command (GoC) of X Corps, Rawalpindi, the army's largest, which is responsible for the area along the  Line of Control (LoC) the de facto border dividing Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir,  has extensive experience in handling affairs in the region and the northern areas.

With cross-border shelling along the LoC that began in September showing no sign of ebbing, Bajwa's military colleagues told Al Jazeera there is a likelihood that he would try to arrange a ceasefire between the two sides.


READ MORE: Pakistan information minister removed over news report


Lieutenant-Colonel (retd) Muhammad Irfan, who served with Bajwa in 1984 in the Northern Light Infantry (NLI) unit, which has the primary ground operations responsibility of protecting the northern areas of Pakistan, said Bajwa will "fight back with full force if the attacks from the other side of the border do not stop".


"India is the one attacking our soldiers, killing civilians too, at the LoC. [Indians] are taking the heat, not us. So if India does not agree to the conditions of a ceasefire or ceasefire at all, I think Bajwa is someone who will take rapid action against it."

In 2007, Bajwa served with a UN mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo as a brigade commander alongside Bikram Singh, an Indian general who was also there as a division commander before going on to become his country's army chief.

Ranjeet Rai, an Indian defence expert, has been quoted by the New Indian Express daily as saying:

"[Bajwa] takes over when a mortar war is going on between India and Pakistan along the international border and along the LoC.

"Now, he has two options: He can either stop terrorism or control the mortar firing from Pakistan or will he continue the old army chief's policies.

"He will definitely carry General Sharif's legacy forward and the decisions he has taken to fight terrorism in the country. He is indeed a firm opponent of extremism and terrorism."


Pakistan's Dawn newspaper reported that Bajwa may prove even more forceful in the fight against armed groups than Raheel Sharif, who is credited with launching Operation Zarb-e-Azb in an effort to wipe out the groups and their bases in the North Waziristan.

Cleary, Bajwa will have his plate full, from the tension with India and the violence in Afghanistan to growing links between homegrown armed groups and the implications of a Donald Trump presidency.

"There will be some minor differences here and there" between what Bajwa has done so far and will do as the chief of army staff, Masood, the defence analyst, told Al Jazeera.

"However, we all know he has a very brilliant record of service."

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan’s New Army Chief – PSYCHO Analysis

SOURCE:
http://www.eurasiareview.com/28112016-pakistans-new-army-chief-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29

              Pakistan’s New Army Chief

                – PSYCHO Analysis

 

                                      ONE OF  'FOUR' PARTS

Linked To

[A] PART ONE

 http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/11/pakistans-new-army-chief-psycho-analysis_43.html

 

[B] PART TWO

http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/11/profile-pakistan-armys-general-qamar.html

[C]  PART THREE
http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/12/pakistans-new-army-chief-general-bajwa.html

[d]  PART FOUR
http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2016/12/can-pak-army-chief-change-his-stripes.html

 

 

 

 

 

Pakistan's Lieutenant General Qamar Javed Bajwa. Photo by Qamar Hafeez, Wikipedia Commons.

 

                                     By
                Vishakha Amitabh Hoskote


November 28, 2016

 

For once, there seems to be a peaceful transition in the Pakistan Army with General Raheel Sharif relinquishing command on 29th November. (The issue of transition was written in an earlier analysis,  here and here).


Lieutenant General Qamar Javed Bajwa is slated to take over; obviously the media is rife with stories and conjectures as to what propelled the General’s appointment superceding three senior officers. That it is Pakistan we speak of, gives added curry flavor; Pakistan has had a long history of military dictatorships and it is a well known fact that the Chief of Army is potentially more powerful than any civilian government occasionally in power. With the world’s sixth largest standing army in troop strength, Pakistan has been the media’s favorite child, what with impediments to civilian and democratic supremacy, nuclear proliferation, its connivance in Afghanistan and the spread of global terrorism, and its entire history of sucking American funds to use them against its bete-noire, India, making it a widely covered ‘banana republic’.

The facts and what we can make out of them: What do we know of General Bajwa?

The General officer is from the 1980 batch of the Pakistan Military Academy, commissioned in to the Baloch Regiment, which has produced three former Chiefs. His predecessors have been Generals Yahya Khan (Chief, Martial Law Administrator and President), Aslam Beg and Ashfaq Pervez Kayani. Though in itself it may mean little, but the fact of having a Baloch connect may mean something given the problems which have resurfaced in that frontier province of late.

For people familiar with the nuances of ‘qaumi’ (or sectarian, race or culture based) units in the sub-continental armies, it should be self explanatory. For those not familiar with the term, ‘qaumi’ units comprise of troops from a particular sect or clan, usually considered martial in nature. The term can be attributed to the way the British recruited for their armies, and these considerations worked in their favor in order to control clan based ambitions and/or rebellious traits. The system of recruitment continues to flourish even today, and an officer from a ‘qaumi’ unit would have immense say over the opinions of the elders (who would also have served under him) and therefore over the broad view in the community. Whether that is a reason for the rise of General Bajwa is debatable, but quite possibly a substantial reason behind the decision.

Professionally, the General has been put through the paces at the Canadian Forces Command and Staff College, Toronto, at the Naval Post Graduate University, California and at the National Defence University, Islamabad. These are courses at different levels of army hierarchy marking out their proficiency to command troops. The gamut of courses would not be considered top-of-the-line, for instance one of the other contenders is from the Royal College of Defence Studies or RCDS, UK. However they do give him the requisite qualifications for the job and yet, make him slightly more pliable.

The General has served as a Brigade Commander in the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Congo, MONUC/ MONUSCO. He has been the Commandant of the Infantry School at Quetta, a training establishment. He has been the Force Commander of Northern Areas which include the territories of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (PoK) and Gilgit- Baltistan, illegally annexed by Pakistan from India in 1947. He has commanded the Pakistan 10 Corps, deployed along the Line of Control with India, usually considered most important considering Pakistan’s obsession with the K word. Prior to his appointment as Chief, the General was heading the Training and Evaluation Directorate at General Headquarters Rawalpindi. In all, he seems to have an equitable mix of operational and training commands. Again he may carry a chip on his shoulder which is useful to be exploited to the advantage of the political establishment.


Three officers have been superceded namely Lieutenant General Ishfaq Nadeem who commanded the Multan based 2 (Strike) Corps or the Army Reserve South, Lieutenant General Javed Ramday who commanded the Bahawalpur based 31 Corps and Lieutenant General Zubair Hayat, also a former 31 Corps Commander, Director General of the Strategic Plans Division and lately Chief of General Staff. To the credit of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s political acumen, he has simultaneously announced the appointment of Zubair Hayat as the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee; the four star General post is considered as the link between the government and the armed forces, but is also a notch lower than the all powerful Army Chief in Pakistan.


General Bajwa seems to be an apolitical officer, which is difficult to believe in the feudal system of Pakistan. He is from the Punjabi Muslim stock which is almost a mandatory requirement to see upper echelons of power in the country. From all accounts, he is a strong proponent of the army not intruding in to civilian space, which is another metaphor for ‘playing safe’. To that end, it makes good political sense for an already embattled Nawaz Sharif to appoint him as a safer option and hopefully a more pliant one.

What prompted the appointment and what we can expect from the new Chief

In the Pakistani narrative, only two tenets remain permanent.

First, its ability to keep the US on its right side, and

Second, its relentless pursuit of Kashmir and India’s downfall.

These tenets have formulated both its domestic as well as its foreign policy. It really does not matter whether a civilian or military government rules, what matters is that these two guiding principles are adhered to; without either, the state of Pakistan would succumb to internal dissension or to economic breakdown.


If that be the precursor, the General heading the army would indeed be imprudent to ignore both these facets. In the recent past a number of accusations relating to Pakistan’s nexus with terror outfits have been made, notably in the US. This is threatening to the notion of Pakistan continuing to extract funds based on fallacy and may spell the beginning of its economic breakdown. Hence it was of utmost importance to project to the world that a lawful system based on civilian control was in place and is the basis of any decision. The decision to not grant an extension to General Raheel Sharif, and thereafter appoint an innocuous General as Chief, meets this requirement beautifully. After all, perception management has been taught in the Pakistani military establishment since 1949!


Nawaz Sharif would also have to look in to the internal political dimensions to retain his tenuous hold on power. The Balochi antecedents of the General help him to keep a lid on Baloch insurgency and opinion. The fact that he is a Punjabi Muslim helps. In order to keep the military on board it certainly makes sense to have a pliable Chief of Army.


With all these factors in mind, the appointment of Chief seems to be very well orchestrated. Along with that comes the question of what the General’s own views portend. As mentioned earlier, he has expressed the need to keep army from intruding in to civilian space. As per reports in the Pakistani media, he has also remarked on terror being a greater threat than India. Both these statements are as politically correct as can be. There has been growing clamour for Pakistan to adhere to democracy and institute measures for the supremacy of civilian control over its military establishment. Links to the terror machinery across the globe having been immutably affiliated to Pakistan, it has been stridently demanded that the country take punitive action against the perpetrators of terror operating from its soil. So a Chief of Army making just these two policy oriented acknowledgements might well be too politically correct to be true.


Again reverting to the raison-detre of the Pakistani state, its territorial dispute with India, General Bajwa is not going to make any meaningful departure from the cause. To keep the Indian behemoth bleeding, Pakistan has no alternative but to continue its strategy of ‘a thousand cuts’; hence, export of terror will not change as an instrument of state policy. Add to that the dimension of an increasingly radicalized Islam. Pakistan will continue to protect terror outfits operating from its soil and it will also keep on paying lip service to the ‘war against terror’. It would take an erudite intelligentsia across the globe to recognize intentions and institute rational and cognitive steps to stop that.


And while the General may seem relatively meek at the moment, it would be prudent to remember the appointment of General Pervez Musharraf. History might repeat itself at some time in the near future.

TOPICS: India  Military  Pakistan  Politics    South Asia

About the Author

Vishakha Amitabh Hoskote

Vishakha Amitabh Hoskote is a Communication Professional, Research Scholar and a Defence Enthusiast. With an MA, MPHIL in International Relations, Political Science and Development Communications, Ms Hoskote regularly writes for Eurasia Review on subjects of geopolitical importance

 

DEMONETIZATION : “Yeh Modi kucch bhi kar sakta hai”

SOURCE:
 CURTSEY
http://swarajyamag.com/politics/understanding-narendra-modis-shock-and-awe-pursuit-of-economic-nationalism






          Yeh Modi Kucch Bhi Kar Sakta Hai
                                     By
                        Shashi Shekar 
                                                                                                             November 27 Nov, 2016

Snapshot

                                                

Narendra Modi’s shock and awe announcement of demonetization was essentially him acting on the aspirations of a billion to overwhelm and overcome the million mutinies against his government on a litany of issues.

 

 

The Narendra Modi led NDA government in New Delhi marks the half-way milestone in its five year term this week. The Modi government hits the half way mark at a time when India is still reeling from the shock and awe effect of demonetization. It would be in order to look back at the political roller-coaster of expectations over the past two and half years from the Modi government to put the current moment in perspective.


The historic mandate of the 2014 general elections that saw for the first time in Indian democracy a non-Congress single party attaining a simple majority in the Lok Sabha. The mood back in 2014 when Narendra Modi took office as Prime Minister was one of sky high expectations meeting the realities of Indian democracy. Writing back then in a column, I had remarked how the bar on expectations for Mr. Modi was set so high that he had to play out his five year term like a Test match while a restless citizenry expected T-20 pace of performance:

The scale and complexity of India leaves Narendra Modi no choice but to play out his governance agenda Test Cricket style for the next five years hoping for a long innings for his flagship ideas delivered through stable, patient partnerships with key constituencies. But he will also have no choice but to simultaneously manage expectations T-20 style every single day for this young nation is impatient for change.

The game of raising the bar on expectations played out even more harshly through much of 2015 with the eighteen month milestone seeing incessant outrage in Op-Ed columns and TV studios on issue after issue with the Modi government seemingly on the receiving end. Writing back then in one more column on the first year and half of the Modi government in November of 2015 I had wondered aloud if Narendra Modi could overwhelm the “million mutinies” against his government by acting on behalf of a “billion aspirations”. Expanding further on this theme of a “million mutinies” versus a “billion aspirations” in the same column I had pointed out how India was a unique experiment in democracy given the scale and complexity of its socio-economic diversity.

The Indian Population in 1964 when the Nehru era came to an end was 487 million. When Indira Gandhi’s era came to an end in 1984 the Indian Population was 764 million. By 1991 when Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated the Indian Population hovered around 886 million. Take a moment to let this sink – Narendra Modi is India’s first Prime Minister with a majority in Parliament since we become the world’s first Billion People Democracy.

Writing further I had argued that

This is the first time the world has had a taste of a Billion Indians led by a Strong Indian Prime Minister at the helm of the world’s largest democracy with a stable majority in Parliament. The idea of Modi’s India of a Billion has several unsettled from the entrenched elite in Delhi to the power brokers across the globe. The Million Mutinies against Modi are thus a pre-emptive strike to stifle the rise of a Billion Aspirations in Modi’s India.

And had posed the question

What is Narendra Modi to do in the face of these Million Mutinies?

India’s destiny cannot be allowed to be hijacked by an elite that finds itself cut out and marginalised after decades of patronage by the Nehruvian State. It is high time the silent Indian Majority speaks up and sends a message to the vocal elite Minority that Modi’s India is moving on, with you or without you and in spite of you.

A year on in November of 2016 it would seem that is exactly what Narendra Modi has done with demonetization. From those Op-Ed pundits who asked where are the “big bang reforms” to the TV studio talking heads who were worked up about “dissent”, Narendra Modi’s shock and awe announcement of demonetization was essentially him acting on the aspirations of a billion to overwhelm and overcome the million mutinies against his government on a litany of issues. Little wonder that the popular sentiment in favour of demonetization continues to be firmly strong with the Prime Minister’s personal popularity remaining undiminished despite the continuing hiccups in implementation and the uneven pace of recovery from demonetization.


While it may take us a while to fully fathom the scope and depth of the impact of demonetization, one thing is clear, Narendra Modi’s “shock and awe” pursuit of economic nationalism has taken the wind off the sails of the political opposition while it has an anxious Lutyens elite in a panic attack in what else may come next.


Commentator Pratap Bhanu Mehta in a recent column in the Indian Express wondered if this was going to be a “state of permanent revolution”. He may very well be right for if it came down to making a political choice between the “million mutinies” aimed at derailing his term in office and the “billion aspirations”, Narendra Modi has left us in no doubt which way his economic nationalism would lean.


Perhaps words that best captured what tumult lay ahead came in a Facebook post by author and journalist Rashmi Bansal on comments she heard at a wedding she had recently attended:



      “Yeh Modi kucch bhi kar sakta hai”

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

DEMONETIZATION : Subramanian Swamy - How demonetization has affected corrupt of India

SOURCE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D3LBIt7Sfw




Subramanian Swamy - How demonetization           has affected corrupt of India  


Mr Subramaniam Swamy, on 14 November 2016, during his address to The Foreign Correspondents Club, Hongkong, gives a clear insight into corruption, demonetisation, black money, the steps required to prevent its regeneration and how the 1 Trillion USD lying in foreign banks can be brought back into India. He advocates abolition of Income Tax, transparency & simplicity. Worth watching the video till the very end, especially the question & answer session, which definitely indicates the way ahead for India!

               [  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4D3LBIt7Sfw ]

               

Veterans Remembrance Day - Vijay Divas Indo-Pakistan War 1971

 Veterans Remembrance Day : Vijay Divas                  Indo-Pakistan War 1971

To commemorate the Vijay Divas Indo-Pakistan War 1971 as the Veterans Remembrance Day, the IESM, Panchkula Branch has invited a well known, and highly regarded security/defence analyst and senior journalist Dr. Manoj Kumar Joshi, Distinguished Fellow and Head, National Security Programme, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi to deliver a lecture on “Evolution of India’s Defence Policy under Pandit Nehru” at Panchkula on Saturday, December 10, 2016 at 1100 H. Dr. Joshi had authored numerous articles, research papers, and three well researched books, two of them on Kashmir.

 

A digital invite along with the route chart to the Atm Auditorium where the lecture would be held is attached. This auditorium is about 1 Km ahead of the HQ Western Command, Shakti Dwar on the Chandigarh – Shimla Highway just short and immediately to the right of the T Junction on Road Zirakpur – Shimla.

 

The lecture is open to all including civilians. Ladies are most welcome. Do mark December 10 on your calendar for attending this lecture of great interest. We look to your interaction with the speaker as also the Panchkula IESM team. Kindly be seated by 1045 H. With regards,

 

Brig Kiran Krishan

Convener, IESM, Panchkula

Mobile: 9876116898

 

Invite V D 2016 Obverse.jpg449 KB Save to OneDrive - Personal   Cancel Download Pending... 449 KB

Invite V D 2016 Reverse.jpg627 KB Save to OneDrive - Personal   Cancel Download Pending... 627 KB

Route 2016.jpg69 KB Save to OneDrive - Personal   Cancel Download Pending... 69 KB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Modi's One Bold Step -DEMONETIZATION & WAIT NEXT FOR BENAMI PROPERTY

Modi's One Bold Step -DEMONETIZATION & WAIT TILL 30 DECEMBER FOR  BENAMI PROPERTY

 

PAKI NUKES : NUCLEAR ESTABLISHMENTS OF PAKISTAN

SOURCE :
GOOGLE EARTH




                              TO VIEW
THE PAKI  NUKE ESTABLISHMENTS  
                                    &
        NUMEROUS NUKE MISSILE SITES

[A] DOWN LOAD GOOGLE EARTH ( IT IS FREE )



 [B] CLICK ANY ONE OF THE URLs BELOW


http://groups.google.com/a/googleproductforums.com/group/gec-sports-hobbies/msg/6560577898ceec76

  
                                                                        OR


https://productforums.google.com/forum/#!topic/gec-sports-hobbies/lJxNwLAw7T0;context-place=topicsearchin/gec/sulaimandaud



 (a)  A GOLF CLUBS IN PAKISTAN WINDOW WILL OPEN UP

  (b)  CLICK THE DOWNLOAD ICON

       
  (c)  A BLANK WINDOW WILL OPEN, LOOK AT THE BOTTOM OF THE   WINDOW & CLICK  OPEN  ICON


  ( d) NUKE ANNOTATED  GOOGLE MAP WILL OPEN


       (e)   MOTHER FO NUKE STOCK PILEs  SITE OF SITES OF  NUKES DONT FORGET TO VISIT

"KIRANA HILL, SARGODHA"






  [ C ]  VISIT  NUKE LOCATIONs ONE AT A TIME

  [D] ENLARGE THE AREA WITH THE FACILITY PROVIDED IN THE GOOGLE EARTH. IN MANY PLACES YOU MAY GET  RESOLUTION  ONE METER & AT OTHERS REASONABLE RESOLUTION TO FIGURE OUT THE TARGET AREA depending upon the date of imagery & resolution capability of the satelite

 [E] LOOK ON THE  TOP RIGHT  CORNER OF GOOGLE MAP WINDOW, WILL FIND A ROW OF ICONS. USE TIME SLIDER & SUNLIGHT SLIDER TO PLAY AROUND FOR THE  DATE OF IMAGERY TO DETERMINE THE PROGRESS  OF DEVELOPMENT TARGET AREA& SUNLIGHT  ICON TO USE REFRACTION OF LIGHT FOR CLEARER RESOLUTION'


  PLEASE DONT FORGET TO ENDORSE YOUR COMMENTS IN THIS BLOG


[A] SCREEN SHOT KIRANA HILLS SARGODHA

[B]  KHUSHAB NUKE COMPLEX

 [C] AREA MIANWALI NUKES COMPLEX

 IMAGE WITH  DARK (NO) SUNLIGHT

 IMAGE WITH SUNLIGHT

URANIUM EXTRACTION PLANT, KALA SHAH KAKU

M-11 MISSILE STORAGE & FIRING SILOS GUJRANWALA

more sites &  firing nuke missiles silos will follow








 

Countering China: India’s Uncertain Response – Analysis

SOURCE:http://www.eurasiareview.com/23112016-countering-china-indias-uncertain-response-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29


                         Countering China:
                India’s Uncertain Response – Analysis
                                                           By
                                            Harry Roberts*

India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi with China's President Xi Jinping. Photo Credit: Narendra Modi, Wikipedia Commons.

November 23, 2016

China’s rise, and especially, its growing strategic footprint in the Indian Ocean region has provoked policymakers India to come up with appropriate policy approaches to counter its northern neighbour. However, India’s policy towards China so far can be best described as a somewhat confused and uncertain one. India in recent years has shown signs of cultivating closer ties with the US, moving away from its tradition of seeking strategic autonomy, it continues to remain cautious in potentially alienating China due to the importance of its bilateral economic relations with China. Some analysts have made much of India’s strengthened ties with the US, dominating the security architecture in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific regions. The US designated India as a “major defence partner” in June 2016 in the hope that India will play a key role in complementing its own strategic shift towards the region. A senior Obama administration official has said that this partnership will mean that India will be the only country outside Washington’s formal treaty allies that will gain access to almost 99 per cent of the latest American defence technologies.



Furthermore, there are trends that point towards growing US-India military cooperation. The signing of the Logistics and Supply Memorandum of Agreement with the USA in August 2016 is one such indicator. India now also carries out more joint exercises with the US than with any other nation, including the annual Malabar maritime exercise that in 2007 was broadened to include Japan, Australia and Singapore.

However, such developments can equally be viewed as a sign of India’s relative weakness vis-à-vis China rather than a pronounced long-term shift towards the US. While there are ambitious plans to enlarge the Indian Navy, including the building of three Aircraft Carriers fielding a combined 120-130 aircrafts, these will not be ready until at least 2030.
Until then, an alliance with the US can amplify India’s strategic impact in the region.



Interestingly, much of the hubbub over this bilateral defence cooperation has been coming from the US itself as part of its long-term effort at wooing India to align with the US ‘Pivot to Asia’. The US Department of Defense’s strategic guidance released in 2012, which set out its expected shift towards the Asia-Pacific, highlighted the importance of a strategic partnership with India to
“support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.”



With the US “Pivot” aimed at curtailing a rising China, India faces a conundrum as it has been forced to pick sides. By hitching its wagon to the US, India is aware of the possibility of provoking an adverse Chinese reaction.


India’s hesitant policy towards China is evident from its approach towards the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
While some commentators have attempted to depict India as hostile to the project, there is little actual evidence to support this.
India’s development of the Chahbahar Port in Iran, located just 72 kilometres from the Gwadar Port in Pakistan, is perhaps the only direct response and challenge to the Chinese project. However, while India may not be comfortable with the project, outright hostility would be anti-intuitive due to the tacit understanding that if CPEC turns out to be a true ‘game changer’ for Pakistan’s troubled economy it would bolster the civilian government in Islamabad thereby opening up possibilities of greater engagement with India. Improved economic regional integration would, in turn, benefit India’s national security as well.


It would then be wrong to view these developments as a ‘zero-sum’ game. Despite, at times, a jingoistic tabloid press in India, there are many influential people who advocate for deeper engagement with China. India’s former Petroleum Minister, Mani Shankar Aiyar, suggested that an envisaged gas pipeline from Iran to Pakistan should be extended to India and then onto China, thereby creating further interdependencies and avoiding competition. India’s former ambassador to Saudi Arabia, Oman and UAE, Talmiz Ahmed, has also said that “there is no need to fear the  One Belt, One Road  [ OBOR] – both the OBOR and China need India as a partner”.


Indeed, Narendra Modi’s government has shown a commitment to deeper engagement with China. During Modi’s visit to China in May 2015 trade agreements worth $22 billion were signed. Such deals indicate the confidence with which both party’s view the future of this relationship.



India response to China’s rise has so far been muddled and somewhat contradictory. While partnering with the US more closely is seen by some as a clear evidence of India picking sides, this seems more of a case of US courtship than the other way round. India, to a certain extent is free-riding on the US security architecture until it has augmented its own military strength.


 Currently, it is not in India’s interests to compete with China. Despite Indian economic growth and a Chinese slowdown, India is still far behind in terms of its ability to challenge China. Economic interdependence -trade between the two is valued at $70 billion – perhaps further explains India’s muted reactions regarding regional and international disputes involving China. Given Modi’s history of close interactions with the Chinese during his tenure as Gujarat’s Chief Minister, further engagement, barring any unexpected negative developments, can be expected.