The Ukraine War 2022:
How rotten is the Russian army?
The power of the modern Russian army was supposed to show the world that President Vladimir Putin had restored the greatness of his country after the humiliations of the collapse of the USSR. Instead, little progress and heavy losses in Ukraine exposed Russia’s deep flaws. For those threatened by Putin’s aggression, the weakening of the army is a relief. Unfortunately, this also leaves the nuclear-armed power with a desire for revenge.
So far, the invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for the Russian military. According to the British government, about 15,000 soldiers were killed in two months of fighting. At least 1,600 armored vehicles, dozens of aircraft and the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet were destroyed. The assault on Kyiv, the capital, was a chaotic failure.
Leon Trotsky wrote that “the army is nothing but an element of society and suffers from all its ailments, especially when the temperature rises.” In the coming weeks, the fighting in eastern and southern Ukraine will determine not only the course of the war but also how the Russian military manages to salvage its reputation and that of the society it represents.
Leon Trotsky wrote that “the army is nothing but an element of society and suffers from all its ailments, especially when the temperature rises.”
The Russian army shows a high degree of rot. The defense budget, which has a purchasing power of more than $250 billion, is three times that of Britain or France, but much of it is wasted or stolen. Putin and his top leadership kept the invasion plans hidden from senior officers, indicative of overwhelming distrust. The soldiers, dissatisfied and eating expired rations, abandoned their vehicles. The units committed torture, rape, and murder, but ended up receiving honors from the Kremlin. Russia has failed to gain control of the skies or combine air power with tanks, artillery, and infantry.
Steeped in corruption, unable to develop initiative or learn from mistakes, their frustrated generals abandoned advanced military doctrine and turned to destroying cities and terrorizing civilians.
Highly motivated Ukrainian forces took advantage of all these Russian failures. Though outnumbered and less heavily armed, they resisted the invading army by delegating decision-making to small, adaptable local units armed with the latest information. Even if the Russian campaign under a single command succeeds in the Donbas, it is largely due to its mass. The claim that it is an advanced modern force is as convincing as the image of a tank turret rusting in the middle of a Ukrainian village.
Putin and his top leadership kept the invasion plans hidden from senior officers, indicative of overwhelming distrust.
For Putin, this is a crushing setback. Partly because, although he controls a powerful propaganda machine with which to silence his critics, the loss of prestige threatens his position in the country. And, above all, the use of military force is essential in his strategy to make Russia matter in the world.
Russia may be very big, but it is a medium-sized state that still wants to be a superpower. It is between Bangladesh and Mexico in terms of population; the economy between Brazil and South Korea; and, by share of world exports, between Taiwan and Switzerland. While he enjoys some sympathy in non-aligned countries such as South Africa and India, his soft power is waning…and this is happening very quickly after the manifestations of incompetence and brutality in Ukraine.
Steeped in corruption, disillusioned Russian generals are destroying cities and terrorizing civilians.
To bridge the gap between strength and ambition—and counter what he sees as US interference—Putin has repeatedly turned to the only area in which Russia can still lay claim to world-class power: military might. Over the past 14 years, he has invaded Georgia and Ukraine (twice) and fought in Syria. His mercenaries have been stationed in Libya, the Central African Republic, Sudan, and now Ukraine. Putin is a global bully obsessed with his country’s shortcomings. This contrasts with China, which also harbors ambitions but has so far been able to get things done using its growing economic and diplomatic weight.
Humiliation in Ukraine weakens Russia’s latest claim to superpower status. The war may drag on; and while this is happening, Russia will not be able to conduct major operations anywhere else. Equipment, ammunition, and troops are quickly running out. It will take years to bring Russian forces back to full strength and train them to avoid the mistakes they made in Ukraine. If sanctions remain because Putin is still in power, it will take even longer.
Russian missiles are equipped with Western components. The flight of smart and open-minded Russians will hurt the economy. At the same time, the less Russia is able to project military power, the less it will be able to destroy the rest of the world.
Russia may be very big, but it is a medium-sized state that still wants to be a superpower.
It will be well received. However, the invasion of Ukraine provides less comforting lessons. On the one hand, it shows that by continuing this strategy, Putin is willing to take risks that for many (including many Russians) do not make sense. A further decline in Russian power could lead to even more senseless aggression.
Ukraine is also demonstrating that if Russian forces do not win on the battlefield, they will resort to atrocities in future wars. The weaker Russian army could have been even more brutal. For those facing Russian aggression around the world, this is a terrifying prospect.
Ukraine is also demonstrating that if Russian forces do not win on the battlefield, they will resort to atrocities in future wars. Ultimately, weakness could lead Russia to the last area in which it remains the undisputed superpower: chemical, biological and nuclear weapons. Since the beginning of this war, Putin and his government have never ceased to brandish the threat of using weapons of mass destruction. Putin is rational in the sense that he wants his regime to survive, so there is little chance that they will be used. However, there is no doubt that as the Russian military runs out of conventional options, so does the lure of escalation.
The message to the rest of the world is that Putin’s military opportunism in Ukraine must be seen as a failure by his own officers and strategists, who will be in a position to try to soften his next stubborn plan. The stalemate in Donbas will only provoke the next fight, which could turn out to be even more dangerous than the current one.
However, even if Putin is defeated, he will remain dangerous. NATO’s message is that it needs to modernize its forward battle groups. The basic idea is that a Russian attempt to take over some of, say, the Baltic states may initially be successful, but provoke a larger war that NATO will ultimately win. This defense runs the risk of miscalculation and escalation, more dangerous than ever if Russian conventional forces are weak. It is better to have a large forward force from the very beginning, which Russia will find it difficult to defeat. The best way to protect yourself from Putin and his rotten army is to talk him out of the war.
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