NO
























1 Sunil Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0: A Foreign and Strategic Policy for India in the Twenty First Century (New Delhi: 2012), http://osf.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/NonAlignment-2.0-A-foreign-and-strategic-policy-for-India-in-the-twenty-first-century.pdf.
2 This broadly follows Barry Posen’s definition, though Posen leaves out economic tools. See Barry Posen, Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany Between the World Wars (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1984), 13.
3 Such special relationships also can be classified as alliances. See Stephen M. Walt, Origins of Alliances (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1990), 12–13. Glenn Snyder, on the other hand, only considers formal, treaty-based defense pacts alliances. See Glenn H. Snyder, Alliance Politics (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 1997), 4. See also Devin Hagerty, “Are We Present at the Creation?: Alliance Theory and the Indo-U.S. Strategic Convergence,” in US-Indian Strategic Cooperation into the 21st Century: More Than Words, eds. Sumit Ganguly, Brian Shoup, and Andrew Scobell (New York: Routledge, 2006), 11–37.
4 “Interview With Narendra Modi,” CNN, Fareed Zakaria GPS, September 21, 2014, http://edition.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1409/21/fzgps.01.html.
5 World Bank, “[Indian and Pakistani] GDP (Current U.S.$),” 2016, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD?locations=IN-PK.
6 Sumit Ganguly points out this was true even in the 1950s. See Sumit Ganguly, “Indian Security Policy,” in The Routledge Handbook of Security Studies, eds. Myriam Dunn Cavelty and Victor Mauer, (New York: Routledge, 2010), 280.
7 See International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2017 (London: International Institute of Strategic Studies, 2017), https://www.iiss.org/en/publications/military%20balance/issues/the-military-balance-2017-b47b.
8 Ibid.
9 Sixteenth Lok Sabha, Standing Committee on Defense (2015–2016), Seventh Report, Lok Sabha Secretariat, April 23, 2015, http://164.100.47.193/lsscommittee/Defence/16_Defence_15.pdf.
10 Evan Feigenbaum, “Is Coercion the New Normal in China’s Economic Statecraft?” Macro Polo, July 25, 2017, https://macropolo.org/coercion-new-normal-chinas-economic-statecraft/.
11 Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0, iii.
12 India has contracted to purchase new artillery from the United States that is better suited for mountain warfare, which should ease the situation once these assets are deployed in the next few years. “Army to Get New Artillery Guns This Weekend, First Since Bofors Scandal in the 1980s,” Hindustan Times, May 18, 2017, http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/army-to-get-new-artillery-guns-this-weekend-first-since-1980s-bofors-scandal/story-gZnWH6mwIBN30Yx1agoJjJ.html.
13 Sudhi Ranjan Sen, “Indian Army’s Ammunition Stock Will Exhaust After 10 Days of War: CAG Report,” India Today, July 21, 2017, http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indian-army-ammunition-war-supply-shortfall-cag-report/1/1008042.html.
14 “Shortage of Over 9,000 Officers in Indian Army, Navy: MOS Defence,” Hindustan Times, April 11, 2017, http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/shortage-of-over-9-000-officers-in-indian-army-navy-mos-defence/story-mYlcDSBbh0QUcgphmo1p6N.html.
15 For a fuller analysis of some of these issues, see Rajesh Rajagopalan, “India’s Unrealized Power,” in Strategic Asia, 2015-16: The Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific, eds. Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills (Washington, DC: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2015), 162–89.
16 PricewaterhouseCoopers, The World in 2050: Will the Shift in Global Economic Power Continue, February 2015, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/issues/the-economy/assets/world-in-2050-february-2015.pdf.
17 Shyam J. Kamath, “Foreign Aid and India: Financing the Leviathan State,” Cato Institute Policy Analysis No. 170, May 6, 1992, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/foreign-aid-india-financing-leviathan-state; Also see Chidanand Rajghatta, “India Top Recipient of US Economic Aid,” Times of India, July 16, 2015, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/India-top-recipient-of-US-economic-aid/articleshow/48093123.cms.
18 Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0, 32–33.
19 Snyder, Alliance Politics, 181–86.
20 World Bank, “GDP Ranking,” July 1, 2017, https://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog/GDP-ranking-table.
21 Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, SIPRI Military Expenditure Database, 2016 http://www.sipri.org/research/armaments/milex/milex_database.
22 C. Raja Mohan, “India and the Balance of Power,” Foreign Affairs 85, no. 4 (July-August 2006), 29, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2006-07-01/india-and-balance-power.
23 Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0, para 137.
24 Srinath Raghavan, War and Peace in Modern India: A Strategic History of the Nehru Years(New Delhi: Permanent Black, 2010), 279–80.
25 John F. Burns, “India’s New Defense Chief Sees Chinese Military Threat,” New York Times, May 5, 1998, http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/05/world/india-s-new-defense-chief-sees-chinese-military-threat.html?mcubz=1.
26 Darren J. Lim and Zack Cooper, “Reassessing Hedging: The Logic of Alignment in East Asia,” Security Studies 24, no. 4 (2015), 698, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09636412.2015.1103130?journalCode=fsst20.
27 Ashley J. Tellis, Nonalignment Redux: The Perils of Old Wine in New Skins (Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2012), 48, http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/07/10/nonalignment-redux-perils-of-old-wine-in-new-skins-pub-48675.
28 Rajagopalan, “India’s Unrealized Power.”
29 World Bank, Global Economic Prospects, January 2016: Spillovers Amid Weak Growth (Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016) 4.
30 Tellis, Nonalignment Redux, 49–51.
31 Rajagopalan, “India’s Unrealized Power.”
32 Rajat Pandit, “Army Reworks War Doctrine for Pakistan, China,” Times of India, December 30, 2009, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Army-reworks-war-doctrine-for-Pakistan-China/articleshow/5392683.cms.
33 Bharat Karnad, “Silly ‘Two-Front War’ Scenario and Related IAF’s Rafale Push at Expense of SU-30,” Security Wise (blog), March 24, 2016, https://bharatkarnad.com/2016/03/24/silly-two-front-war-scenario-and-related-iafs-rafale-push/.
34 Rajya Sabha, Session 225, “Discussion on Workings of the Ministry of Defence,” May 8, 2012; “NSA Ajit Doval: India Must Prepare for a Two-Front War,” Hindustan Times, November 25, 2014, http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/nsa-ajit-doval-india-must-prepare-for-a-two-front-war/story-eUqDoKnVYmBRCaZUHlRauL.html.
35 Sharon Chen, “India Should Play Bigger Role in South China Sea, Says Singapore,” Livemint, March 19, 2015, http://www.livemint.com/Politics/5byvMqe44BUoCauncMigBM/India-should-play-bigger-role-in-South-China-Sea-says-Singa.html; Walter C. Ladwig, “Delhi’s Pacific Ambition: Naval Power, “Look East,” and India’s Emerging Influence in the Asia-Pacific,” Asian Security 5, no. 2 (2009), 94–95.
36 Amitav Acharya, “India’s ‘Look East’ Policy,” in The Oxford Handbook of Indian Foreign Policy, edited by David Malone, C. Raja Mohan, and Srinath Raghavan (New Delhi: 2015).
37 Lavina Lee, “India as a Nation of Consequence in Asia: The Potential and Limitations of India’s ‘Act East’ Policy,” Journal of East Asian Affairs 29, no. 2 (Fall/Winter 2015), 67–104.
38 Barry Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy (Ithaca, New York: Cornell University Press, 2014).
39 This is a general proposition regarding great powers and their potential competitors, which is applied here to a regional context.
40 Davide Fiammenghi, “The Security Curve and the Structure of International Politics: A Neorealist Synthesis,” International Security 35, no. 4 (Spring 2011), 126–54, https://www.jstor.org/stable/41289682.
41 International Institute of Strategic Studies, The Military Balance 2017.
42 PricewaterhouseCoopers, The World in 2050.
43 These figures account for purchasing power parity (in 2014 U.S. dollars).
44 Communist Party of India, “CPI Programme,” para 5.12, http://www.communistparty.in/p/party-programme.html; also see Communist Party of India (Marxist), “21st Congress: Political Resolution,” April 19, 2015, para 2.38-2.40, http://www.cpim.org/documents/21st-congress-political-resolution.
45 Walt, Origins of Alliances, 19–21; Snyder, Alliance Politics, 158–61.
46 Randall L. Schweller, “Bandwagoning for Profit: Bringing the Revisionist State Back In,” International Security 19, no. 1 (Summer 1994), 72–107, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2539149.
47 David C. Kang, “Getting Asia Wrong: The Need for New Analytical Frameworks,” International Security 27, no. 4 (Spring 2003), 57–85, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016228803321951090.
48 Snyder, Alliance Politics, 2.
49 Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0, 14.
50 Andrew Small, for example, argues that China now sees Pakistan as important also in its rise as a global power, though this does not appear to have displaced the traditional logic of the relationship. Andrew Small, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015).
51 Ashley J. Tellis, “The China-Pakistan Nuclear ‘Deal’: Separating Fact from Fiction,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, July 16, 2010, http://carnegieendowment.org/files/china_pak_nuke1.pdf.
52 Pranab Dhal Samanta, “China Attended Meet to Oppose UNSC Expansion,” Indian Express, October 23, 2008, http://archive.indianexpress.com/news/china-attended-meet-to-oppose-unsc-expansion/376755/.
53 Indrani Bagchi, “India Must Sign NPT for NSG Membership, China Asserts,” Times of India, May 19, 2016, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/India-must-sign-NPT-for-NSG-membership-China-asserts/articleshow/52350169.cms; Varghese K. George, “Hidden Vetoes Must Go, India Tells UN,” Hindu, April 16, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/chinas-masood-azhar-move-hidden-vetoes-must-go-india-tells-un/article8481119.ece.
54 Shyam Saran, “A Lopsided Strategic Partnership,” Business Standard, April 14, 2016, http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/shyam-saran-a-lopsided-strategic-partnership-116041400917_1.html.
55 See, for example, Dennis C. Blair, “A Strong Foundation but Weak Blueprint for National Security,” in Strategic Asia 2015-16: Foundations of National Power in the Asia-Pacific, eds. Ashley J. Tellis, Alison Szalwinski, and Michael Wills (Washington, DC: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2015), 225–58; also see Michael Beckley, “China’s Century? Why America’s Edge will Endure,” International Security 36, no. 3 (Winter 2011–2012), 41­–78.
56 Barry Posen, “Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of U.S. Hegemony,” International Security 28, no. 1 (Summer 2003), 5–46.
57 “How Does China’s First Aircraft Carrier Stack Up?” Center for Strategic and International Studies ChinaPower Project, https://chinapower.csis.org/aircraft-carrier/.
58 Stephen Biddle and Ivan Oelrich, “Future Warfare in the Western Pacific: Chinese Anti-Access/Area-Denial, U.S. AirSea Battle, and the Command of the Commons in East Asia,” International Security 41, no. 1 (Summer 2016), 7–48.
59 Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, OECD Economic Surveys: United States 2016, June 2016, http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/economics/oecd-economic-surveys-united-states-2016_eco_surveys-usa-2016-en.
60 Beckley, “China’s Century?”
61 Ashley J. Tellis, “Protecting American Primacy in the Indo-Pacific: Hearings Before the Armed Services Comm.,” 115th Cong. (2017) (testimony of Ashley J. Tellis, April 25, 2017), https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Tellis_04-25-17.pdf.
62 John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, “The Case for Offshore Balancing: A Superior U.S. Grand Strategy,” Foreign Affairs (July-August 2016),https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-13/case-offshore-balancing, 81.
63 See White House, Office of the Press Secretary, U.S.-India Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region, January 25, 2015, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/01/25/us-india-joint-strategic-vision-asia-pacific-and-indian-ocean-region; also see White House, Office of the Press Secretary, United States and India: Prosperity Through Partnership, June 26, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/06/26/united-states-and-india-prosperity-through-partnership.
64 Mearsheimer and Walt, “The Case for Offshore Balancing.”
65 Kevin Liptak, “Trump Salutes NATO With Vow of Strong Support,” CNN, February 7, 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/06/politics/trump-nato-centcom/; “Tillerson Reiterates US Support for Japan and South Korea,” DW.com, March 16, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/tillerson-reiterates-us-support-for-japan-and-south-korea/a-37957324.
66 White House, Office of the Press Secretary, U.S.-India Joint Vision for the Asia-Pacific and Indian Ocean Region; also see White House, Office of the Press Secretary, United States and India: Prosperity Through Partnership.
67 Steve George and Huizhong Wu, “US, India and Japan Begin Naval Exercises, as China Looks On,” CNN, July 12, 2017, http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/11/asia/india-japan-us-malabar-exercises/index.html; also see Franz-Stefan Gady, “India Clears Purchase of 4 More Sub-Killer Planes,” Diplomat, July 7, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/07/india-clears-purchase-of-4-more-sub-killer-planes/.
68 Hagerty traces this evolution back several decades to 1979. Hagerty, “Are We Present at the Creation?,” 16–17.
69 See recent opinion polls from these two publications: Rory Medcalf, India Poll 2013, Lowy Institute for International Policy and the Australia-India Institute, 2013, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/india-poll-2013; Simon Jackman and Gordon Flake eds., The Asian Research Network: Survey on America’s Role in the Indo-Pacific, United States Studies Center at the University of Sydney and the Perth USAsia Center (Sydney: United States Studies Center, May 2017), http://perthusasia.edu.au/america-asia-pacific.
71 Khilnani et al, Nonalignment 2.0, para. 132.