THE LANDS UKRAINE MUST LIBERATE

 SOURCE : 

 (   ) THE LANDS UKRAINE MUST LIBERATE :    https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/lands-ukraine-must-liberate

(   )     https://twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1741492798438744337/photo/1

          The Lands Ukraine Must Liberate

    Frederick W. Kagan, George Barros, Noel Mikkelsen, and Daniel Mealie

December 31, 2023

A Ukraine strong enough to deter and defeat any future Russian aggression with an economy strong enough to prosper without large amounts of foreign aid is the only outcome of Russia’s war that the United States and the West should accept. Trusting Russian promises of good behavior would be foolish. Leaving Ukraine’s economy badly damaged would create a long-term and large drain on Western finances. Discussions about pressing Ukraine to trade land the Russians now occupy for a ceasefire or armistice have garnered attention recently, based on rumors of Kremlin interest in negotiations of some sort.[1] These discussions have thus far largely focused on the supposed intransigence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky who, it is argued, must be pressed to accept that Ukraine must cede some of its territory. That argument ignores the question that should be central to any such discussion: what are the concrete military, economic, and financial consequences that these territorial sacrifices would have for Ukraine’s long-term security and economic viability or for the future financial burden they would impose on the supporters of an independent Ukraine? The serious evaluation of this question shows that there are real military and economic reasons for Ukraine to try to liberate all of the territory Russia now occupies and that, in any event, the current lines cannot be the basis for any settlement remotely acceptable to Ukraine or the West.

Russia Will Not Abandon Its Maximalist Aims Now or in the Future

Russian President Vladimir Putin and many Kremlin officials have driven deep into the Russian political consciousness the ideas that Ukraine has no independent identity and no basis to continue to exist as an independent state; that any Ukrainian government not totally subservient to Moscow is a pawn of the West and a threat to Russia; that Ukrainian opponents of Russian rule are Nazis intent on conducting genocide against Russians in Ukraine; and that Russia has a legal, moral, and religious obligation to extirpate these supposed threats and restore Ukraine to its rightful place as a historically Russian land.[2] Putin has made these arguments part of his 2024 presidential election platform.[3] Russian administrators are inserting them in curricula throughout Russia and occupied Ukraine.[4] Kremlin mouthpieces speak to the Russian domestic audience with one voice along these lines.[5] Putin is training Russians to commit themselves to the task of subjugating Ukraine, and that training will neither stop nor vanish following some negotiated ceasefire. It will, in fact, shape the thoughts and likely policies of Putin’s successors for years or decades.

The task facing Ukraine and the West, therefore, is to be prepared after the end of this conflict to confront a Russia still determined to achieve its original aims, likely fortified in that determination by a desire to avenge its failures in the course of this war. The damage that the current war is doing to Russia’s military helps to reduce the risks of Russia renewing war quickly, but that effect is temporary and its duration depends in large part on how committed Putin is to rebuilding Russia’s military capabilities rapidly. The Russia-Ukraine frontier will thus be a frontier of potentially imminent conflict for the indefinite future, unfortunately. Peace can only be sustained at an acceptable price if that frontier is defensible by the kinds of forces Ukraine can sustain over the long term.

The Forces Required to Defend Ukraine Depend on Ukraine’s Borders

Military requirements to defend a state depend on many factors including the likely strength and capability of the adversary, the length and configuration of the borders to be held, and the amount of depth the borders provide—that is, the degree to which the defender can temporarily give ground in the face of an attack. Ukraine and the West have little control after the fighting stops over the size and strength of the Russian military, which all current indications suggest will be much greater in a few years than it was in February 2022 by every measure.[6] They can control the other two factors, however, by committing to or refraining from trying to liberate additional Russian-occupied territory.

The amount of depth provided by any given border configuration is far more important than limited changes in the length of the lines in determining the military requirements of the defense and the cost of money, equipment, and social sacrifice needed to hold them. The more the defender must hold the initial line of defense at all costs the more he must maintain large and fully combat-capable forces near that initial line at all times. Sustaining a large, fully-equipped, fight-tonight-trained military is exorbitantly expensive and requires keeping a high proportion of the defender’s population in the military even during peacetime. Keeping many people mobilized all the time imposes a double cost on the state—it must pay each individual for their service, on the one hand, and it loses the contributions of that individual to the economy on the other.

A far more economical approach to defense is to hold a line with smaller forces intended not to defend but rather to delay the attacker’s advance to buy time for reserves of personnel and equipment to be called up and sent forward. Those reserves can then stop and reverse the initial attack, winning back any ground that has been temporarily lost. Reserves are far less expensive than mobilized troops—the defender pays the cost of calling them up and training them to begin with and of some refresher training after their initial service period is done, but they otherwise live normal lives contributing to the economy and raising families.

The land itself, of course, also contributes to the economy. In Ukraine’s case it often does so directly through agriculture and mining, but different frontline configurations can cede more or less of Ukraine’s industrial and other economic potential to Russia—weakening the Ukrainian economy and ability to sustain its military and strengthening Russia’s.

The January 2022 Lines Are Far Easier to Defend Efficiently than the December 2023 Lines

Ukraine’s borders and the line of contact between Ukraine and Russia before the full-scale invasion of 2022 were long—about 3,120 kilometers—but included large areas offering considerable defensive depth, especially in the northeast. Ukraine will always need to defend its northern border, opposite Belarus and then Russia, very close to the border itself on a west-to-east line extending from the Polish border to around Chernihiv. Kyiv is only about 100 kilometers from the border, and essential ground lines of communication run through Rivne and Lutsk at about the same distance. Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city, is even closer to the international border and affords no depth at all. The Russian occupation in 2014 of eastern Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and Crimea brought several other important Ukrainian cities under permanent threat. Mariupol was almost right on the line of contact in 2022.

 

In January 2022, Kherson and Melitopol were respectively about 90 and 115 kilometers away from Russian control. Their physical situation offers a better prospect for a more efficient defense, however. Kherson lies across the Dnipro River from Crimea, on the one hand, affording the Ukrainians in principle opportunities to fall back to the river line if necessary in the face of renewed Russian attack from there. Melitopol benefits from no such natural defenses, but Russian forces attacking from Crimea must cross several bridges to get to the Ukrainian mainland (a factor from which Kherson also benefits), creating chokepoints that could be used to slow the Russian advance and buy time for Ukrainian reserves to arrive. (That this did not happen in 2022 reflects the fact that, contrary to Russian claims, Ukraine was not preparing for a war with Russia before the full-scale Russian invasion. A future Ukrainian military surely will. Ukraine had fewer armed forces in these areas in 2022 because it had concentrated its best forces in the east opposite occupied Donbas. A future Ukrainian military will likely concentrate differently.)

 

Northeastern Ukraine offers even more depth. It is among the most fertile lands anywhere in the world but also sparsely populated, especially near the international border:

 

The terrain provides ample opportunity for delaying actions behind which reserves can mobilize to defend more heavily populated settlements in the rear and prepare to regain ground lost in an initial renewed, Russian assault.

The task of defending these long lines, even with the areas providing strategic depth, is daunting. The future Ukrainian military will have to be much larger and much better trained and equipped than it was in 2022. But it is far less daunting than the challenge Ukraine would face in having to defend the current lines if the conflict were frozen today. We will consider below the reduction in requirements that come from regaining the internationally recognized borders.

Freezing the Lines Unfreezes the Forces

Russian forces on the line of contact today are making marginal gains at a high cost in lives and materiel. A future Russian attempted invasion following a protracted period of reconstitution would not present the Russians with the same challenges.

The current Ukrainian and Russian deployments along the line are shaped by the ongoing active fighting, constraining Russian forces’ ability to optimize their deployments across the theater.[7] Russian forces are concentrated in areas they are focused on trying to seize at the moment, such as Avdiivka. Both sides have pulled artillery, air defense, aviation, and other scarce but vital systems as far out of range of the other’s strike capabilities as possible. Both sides have generally learned the hard way to avoid massing large quantities of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and other such weapons of war because doing so usually leads to their rapid destruction by massed artillery, drone, or air attack.[8] The ongoing fighting is consuming Russian forces generated just about as rapidly as Russia puts them into the field.

 

Should an armistice be established, however, few of the conditions shaping the deployments of these forces would hold anymore. New Russian forces would not be consumed by fighting after a ceasefire. The Russians would no longer be forced to mass in particular areas where they are currently attacking but would instead be able to rearrange their forces to optimize for other factors. They would be able to mass artillery, air defense, electronic warfare, and engineering capabilities, specifically bridging equipment, and other supplies in fortified defensive positions near the front line—something they cannot do now as Ukrainian forces attack any concentrations within range of their weapons systems when they see them. The Russians would be able to prepare, train, equip, and deploy reserves in echelons throughout southern and eastern Ukraine to reinforce and support future operations and to improve the road and rail infrastructure needed to move them rapidly around. They could optimize, in other words, for a short-notice attack at times and places of their choosing in ways that the ongoing combat now precludes.

No Space to Trade

Ukraine would need to defend right at the current lines in the event that Russia invades again following a period of reconstitution. Too many large population, industrial, and vital defensive centers are too close to the current lines for Ukraine to be able to trade space for time. Major urban areas with total pre-war populations of over five million (a bit over 11% of Ukraine’s total pre-war population) are within 160 kilometers (100 miles) of the current front lines. They include the vital population and industrial cities of Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro; Odesa and Mykolaiv, which are Ukraine’s sole remaining ports and essential to Ukraine’s ability to export its grain and other goods; and the cities of Slovyansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostyantynivka that are both populous and form Ukraine’s major eastern defensive bastion. Kharkiv remains a mere 32 kilometers from the Russian border but is now also threatened by Russian lines about 110 kilometers to the east and southeast.

A Ukrainian military seeking to deter or defeat a future Russian attack that begins on these lines will have to be fully manned and equipped and fight-tonight trained even in peacetime, as it will have no margin for error in almost any direction.

In a future invasion, Russian forces seeking to take Kherson, Mykolaiv, or Odesa will have to cross the Dnipro River—and do so without the benefit of the bridges they used in 2022. Those attacking further east or toward Kharkiv or Kyiv will confront prepared Ukrainian defensive fortifications. The Russians will, thus, face daunting challenges of their own, to be sure.

However, the aggressor benefits from many advantages in war. The Russians will be able to concentrate their own forces as close to the border as they like, along with all the air defense systems, bridging and other engineering equipment, artillery, ammunition, and other supplies they would need for a short-notice attack as noted above. The Ukrainians will not be able to attack those concentrations without breaking the ceasefire. The Russians can keep a sizable portion of their own troops in a constant (and expensive) state of mobilization and readiness if they choose, and Putin has shown a great degree of willingness to burn money (and lose Russian lives) in pursuit of his objectives. The Russians are currently challenged to sustain their mobilized military and the large losses it is taking in Ukraine while also attempting to mobilize their defense industrial base.[9] They can alleviate much of that pressure once the fighting stops, however, because they will no longer be taking losses, on the one hand, and will also be able to meter their defense industrial requirements at their own pace to be prepared for a renewed attack at a time of their choosing.

The Russians can also keep many of their assault forces in reserve, dispersed in training areas throughout Russia, bringing them to war readiness only at the intended moment of attack—at least, they will be able to do so if they can resolve the failures in their pre-2022 and current mobilization and training systems as they have set out to do.[10] The second approach would, of course, give Ukraine warning and the opportunity to mobilize its own reservists. But it would have to mobilize its reserves every time the Russians did in this configuration of the lines because it cannot afford to cede its frontline positions temporarily while mobilizing reserves to regain lost ground. That situation would give the Russians enormous control over the cost of money and social tension of deterring and defending against a Russian attack. The lines as they are now, in either case, would leave it to Putin and his successors to determine the financial and social cost Ukraine and its Western backers must bear for Ukraine’s continued survival, and that cost would likely be very high.

Crimea

 

The costs and challenges of Ukraine’s defense vary dramatically if Crimea returns to Ukraine or remains in Russia’s hands. The January 2022 lines considered above assume that Russia retains Crimea. If Ukraine liberates the peninsula along with Russian-occupied lines in the south, however, then the imminent threat to Kherson, Mykolaiv, and Odesa vanishes and the threat to Melitopol is dramatically reduced. Mariupol remains the only major front-line city in the south in this case, dramatically reducing the area of limited defensive depth and requiring high levels of prepared and partially- or fully-mobilized Ukrainian forces to defend. The liberation of Crimea also largely obviates the threat of Russian amphibious operations against the southwestern Ukrainian coast, as well as the Russian missile threat to ships attempting to transit the western Black Sea. Unfounded discussions of Russia’s “historic right” to Crimea, which Russia itself recognized as part of an independent Ukraine in 1994, obscure the high military and financial cost Ukraine and its backers will have to pay for as long as Russia occupies the peninsula.

Donbas

 

Ukraine’s liberation of pre-February 2022 occupied Donbas would not dramatically change the defensive military requirements for Ukraine, since Donetsk City and Luhansk City are so close to the Russian border themselves as to offer no meaningful defensive depth. It would, however, have enormous economic implications for Ukraine, which will be considered here only briefly. Donbas is one of Ukraine’s historic economic heartlands, home to Ukraine’s ore extraction and metallurgical industry. The 2014 line of control resulting from Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine actually divided that industry, separating mines from processing facilities and splitting the rail lines connecting them all. Ukraine did not feel anything like the full economic pain of that division, however, because by tacit agreement Moscow and Kyiv allowed the Ukrainian oligarch who controlled the region to continue to operate on both sides of the line of control.[11] That oligarch no longer controls these industrial assets, and it is almost impossible to imagine that a ceasefire that restored the January 2022 lines would include restoring Ukraine’s ability to benefit economically from its part of the entire industrial enterprise.[12] Accepting Russia’s permanent acquisition of eastern Donbas thus deprives Ukraine of considerable revenues, weakening its economy and increasing its economic and financial dependence on the West.

Conclusion

The most advantageous lines Ukraine could hold militarily and economically are its internationally recognized 1991 boundaries. Any discussion of recognizing changes to those borders as concessions to try to persuade Russia to stop its unprovoked and illegal invasion must reckon with the heavy blow such concessions would make against core principles of international law banning wars of conquest, ethnic cleansing, crimes against humanity, and many other moral and ethical principles that are central to a peaceful world. But discussions of such concessions are already underway, and so we have examined the concrete and pragmatic problems surrounding their implementation.

Freezing the Russian war in Ukraine on anything like the current lines enormously advantages Russia and increases the risks and costs to Ukraine and the West of deterring, let alone defeating, a future Russian attempt to fulfill Putin’s aims by force. The current lines are not a sensible starting point for negotiations with Russia even if Putin were serious about negotiating a ceasefire on those lines. They are, rather, the necessary starting point for the continued liberation of strategically- and economically vital Ukrainian lands, without which the objective of a free, independent, and secure Ukraine able to defend and pay for itself is likely impossible.

 

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References

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/opinion/ukraine-military-aid.html; https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/23/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine-war...

[2] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[3] https://isw.pub/UkrWar120823; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120923

[4] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[5] https://ria dot ru/20231228/svo-1918691314.html; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/426; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/421; https://telegra dot ph/Intervyu-oficialnogo-predstavitelya-MID-Rossii-MVZaharovoj-francuzskomu-informagentstvu-AFP-12-09; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[6] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russia%E2%80%99s-military-... ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120323 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar120223

[7] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine%E2%80%99s-operatio...

[8] https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-ass...

[9] https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/politics/russia-troop-losses-us-intellige... ; https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/12/us/politics/russia-intelligence-asses... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign...

[10] https://isw.pub/UkrWar100623 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar100523 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar122323 ; https://isw.pub/UkrWar121923 ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ; https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign... ;

[11] https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/eastern-europe/ukraine/2... ; https://meduza dot io/feature/2016/03/25/hozyain-donbassa

[12] ; https://globalarbitrationreview.com/article/ukraines-richest-man-brings-... ; https://tass dot ru/ekonomika/17023511

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 Ukraine Project

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Ukraine Raion Demographics DEC 2023 Borders (2).png

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MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT :

 SOURCE :

  (    ) MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE AND HOW TO WIN IN IT :    https://infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalContent/ZALUZHNYI_FULL_VERSION.pdf

UDC 355 

MODERN POSITIONAL WARFARE & HOW TO WIN IN IT

                                                          Valerii Zaluzhnyi

                    Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 

Having launched the large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the Russian federation provoked the beginning of an unprecedented global security crisis, the largest since the end of the Second World War. Russian great-power chauvinism multiplied by sick imperial ambitions gradually turns the military conflict it began in the centre of Europe into an armed confrontation between democratic and authoritarian political regimes with the prospect of its spread to other regions of the planet with similar geopolitical models (Israel and the Gaza Strip, South and North Koreas, Taiwan and China, etc.). The insufficient effectiveness of the existing global political regulatory mechanisms, primarily the UN and the OSCE, leaves Ukraine no choice but to restore its territorial integrity after the large-scale armed aggression within the internationally recognized borders of 1991, exclusively by military force, in which its Armed Forces (AF) play a decisive role.

 Having entered the war with a stronger enemy, which has a lot of weapons and a much greater mobilization capabilities, Ukraine was not only able to stop it, but also to conduct a successful counteroffensive in 2022 and stave the enemy off along many axes. The people of Ukraine have demonstrated their willingness not in words, but in deeds to lay down their soul and body for their freedom. However, due to many subjective and objective reasons, the war at the present stage is gradually moving to a positional form, a way out of which in the historical retrospect has always been difficult for both the Armed Forces and the state as a whole. At the same time, the prolongation of a war, as a rule, in most cases, is beneficial to one of the parties to the conflict. In our particular case, it is the Russian federation, as it gives it the opportunity to reconstitute and build up its military power. Therefore, the issues of understanding the causes of such a situation, finding possible ways out of it and changing the nature and course of this war in favor of Ukraine are of particular relevance in modern conditions.

 An analysis of the current situation in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the state Defence Forces are placed shows that in order to find a way out of the positional form of warfare, it is necessary to:  (a) gain air superiority; (b) breach mine barriers in depth; (c)  increase the effectiveness of counter-battery;  (d) create and train the necessary reserves; (e) build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities. Therefore, the determination of the reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form and the search for possible ways out of this situation should obviously be carried out according to these main components. It should be noted that the above-mentioned components in no way level the role and place of missiles and ammunition, artillery systems, missile systems, electronic warfare, other types of weapons and equipment provided by partners. They only complement them in the context of increasing the capabilities of the Defence Forces through new technological solutions and innovative approaches on a way out of the positional crisis on the line of contact. Let's consider these reasons in more detail.

 Reasons for the transition of hostilities to the positional form. 

    As for gaining air superiority. 

Modern art of war involves gaining air superiority to successfully conduct large-scale ground operations. This is reflected both in the doctrines of NATO armed forces and in the governing documents of the armed forces of the Russian federation. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the war with 120 tactical aircraft, out of which only 40 were considered to be technically suitable for utilization, and 33 medium and short-range anti-aircraft missile battalions, of which only 18 had fully serviceable equipment. Due to the material and logistical assistance of the Partner Nations, Ukraine has strengthened its aviation and air defence system. In particular, fighter and attack aircraft, as well as Soviet-made helicopters, were received. The number of anti-aircraft missile systems was significantly increased mainly due to Western-made assets, in particular, "Martlet", "Starstreak", "Javelin", "Piorun", "Mistral", "Stinger", "Grom" man-portable air-defence systems, "Gepard" self-propelled anti-aircraft guns, "Skynex" air defence gun systems, "Avenger", "Stormer", "Patriot", "Hawk", "IRIS-T", "NASAMS", "SAMP-T", "Crotale-NG" air defence systems. Due to this, since the beginning of the large-scale armed aggression, the Russian federation has lost a number of aircraft that roughly corresponds to the number of aircraft of one air army, and helicopters – about 13 regiments (brigades) of army aviation. In addition, the losses of enemy air defence systems of various types already exceed 550 pieces. Despite such losses, today the enemy continues to maintain significant air superiority, which complicates the advance of our troops and is one of the key factors that transforms the nature of hostilities into a positional form.

 According to various assessments, at the end of 2023, the enemy may augment the number of aircraft by building new attack aviation squadrons, so special attention should be paid to this circumstance. But, despite the significant quantitative and qualitative superiority of the enemy in aviation and air defence, it cannot convert it into complete dominance in the air due to the successful work of our elements of direct air defence cover of troops, which constantly increase the number of the engaged enemy air attack weapons. This leads to the fact that the enemy does not feel calm in the skies of Ukraine, his aviation tries not to enter the kill zone of our anti-aircraft defences and utilizes air assets mainly from long ranges, which significantly reduces their effectiveness. Instead, the enemy's unmanned aerial vehicles come to the forefront, which have taken over a significant part of the tasks of manned aviation in terms of aerial reconnaissance and air strikes.

 As for mine barriers breaching in depth.

 The next prerequisite that transforms the nature of current hostilities into a positional form is the widespread use of mine barriers by both the enemy and our troops. Let's consider the situation with the capabilities to breach such barriers by our troops. 

As of February 24, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had a limited capabilities package designed for breaching mine barriers. There were technically outdated pieces of equipment in service. Due to Western partners in the course of hostilities, it was possible to slightly augment the capabilities of engineer units (elements) on breaching using such assets as M58 MICLIC, Wicent 1, NM189 Ingeniorpanservogn, but given the unprecedented scale of these barriers, even such capabilities are objectively lacking. 

Today, the enemy mine barriers along particularly important axes have a high density and reach a depth of 15-20 km. Their cover is conducted by reconnaissance UAVs, which effectively detect our obstacle-clearing detachments (teams) and target fire at them. In case of successful mine barriers breaching, the enemy quickly restores minefields in these areas by such engineering system of remote mine-laying as "Zemledeliye". At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are no less effective in using mine barriers and reconnaissance and fire complexes to detect and destroy the enemy`s engineer equipment for demining. 

                                                          https://youtu.be/iiM4HEsxLUI

Ukrainian artillery destroyed the Zemledeliye mine laying

This condition leads to the fact that the offensive operations of both parties occur with significant difficulties and large losses of materiel and personnel.

 As for counter-battery.

 In the Russian-Ukrainian war, as in the wars of the past, the role of missile forces and artillery in fires remains quite significant, and depending on the conditions, axes and areas of operations varies from 60 to 80% of the total volume of tasks executed. The success of the troops' operations directly depends on the effectiveness of strikes and fire, so the "hunt" for the enemy's fire is a priority for both parties. Counter-battery is becoming an important component of the armed confrontation. And despite the statements of some so-called "military analysts", various publications, including in the russian media, regarding the gradual weakening of russia, we have no right to belittle the importance and capabilities of russian weapons, its ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance) and countermeasures, the ability of the military-industrial complex of the aggressor state to supply the troops with a significant number of both outdated and modern weapons and equipment. We must realistically assess threats, analyse experience, and draw conclusions. 

Immediately after receiving Western missile and artillery weapons, the Armed Forces of Ukraine gained a significant superiority and significant success in counter-battery. Thus, precision guided munition e.g. Excalibur (155 mm shell) proved to be quite effective in the fight against self-propelled artillery and counter-battery radars. However, over time, their capabilities have significantly decreased, since the targeting system (using GPS) is very sensitive to the influence of enemy electronic warfare, which leads to a loss of precision of ammunition. 

The enemy quickly learned to apply new tactics: dispersal (by guns); fire from the maximum range; use of new electronic warfare assets (the“Pole 21” electronic countermeasure system), etc. Also, the enemy quite widely and effectively began to use the Lancet loitering munition with target “illumination”, the Orlan, Zala UAVs and others for counter-battery, countering which is quite difficult.

 In order to maintain and increase the duel superiority, the russians, through the use of outdated artillery systems (D-1, D-20, etc.), significantly increased the artillery density and its ability to massively use conventional ammunition. The enemy has also increased the production and intensity of the use of 122 mm Krasnopol precision guided munition, which is aimed at targets by target illumination with a rangefinder from ground-based observation posts. 

As a countermeasure to the enemy, we were forced to utilize rocket artillery systems e.g. "HIMARS" to defeat his artillery. However, a significant part of the existing set of missiles was utilized for hitting these targets (artillery, MLRS, etc.). Currently, we have managed to achieve a notional parity with the numerically prevailing enemy artillery due to a smaller number of higher-quality (accurate) fires. 

As for creation and preparation of the necessary reserves.

 Compared to Ukraine, the russian federation has almost three times more mobilization human resources. Having failed to succeed in the initial period of the war, the enemy began a partial mobilization by the composition of the armed forces of peacetime in September 2022, which continues to date. But he fails to take advantage of the mobilization of human resources to create a significant superiority in the combat strength of task forces directly fighting against Ukraine.

 The main reasons for this state are political, organizational and motivational in nature. Thus, on the eve of the presidential election, the president of the russian federation, putin, is afraid to conduct a general mobilization in connection with the possible risks of growing social tension in the state and turning it into a political crisis. The enemy has limited capabilities to train mobilized citizens and provide them with the necessary weapons and equipment. Due to significant losses of personnel, the civilian population of the russian federation seeks to evade conscription and participation in hostilities.

 At the same time, it should be taken into account that despite the fact that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is constantly working to improve the procedure for creating and preparing reserves, some issues remain problematic. In particular, we have limited capabilities to train reserves on our own territory, since the enemy has the ability to launch missile and air strikes on training centres and training grounds. The prolonged nature of the war, limited opportunities for the rotation of soldiers on the line of contact, gaps in legislation that seem to legally evade mobilization, significantly reduce the motivation of citizens to serve with the military. We are aware of these issues, we see ways to solve them and are constantly working on it. Thus, this leads to the lack of Ukraine's ability to achieve superiority over the enemy in reserves by increasing their number.

 As for electronic warfare. 

Even before the events of 2014, the military and political leadership of the russian federation paid considerable attention to the development of electronic warfare. An illustrative example of this is the creation in 2009 of a separate branch of the armed forces of the russian federation – the electronic warfare troops. In addition, as part of the russian armed forces, a powerful air component of electronic warfare has been created, which ensures the effective employment of troops (forces) and high-precision weapons. The enemy adopted about 60 types of modern electronic warfare equipment, which have better characteristics, high mobility, increased security, short set-up and tear-down time, the introduction of new technical solutions, automation tools, special software, etc. Almost the entire fleet of obsolete equipment has been updated. 

The main advantages of russian electronic warfare equipment also include the establishment of serial production of the so-called "trench electronic warfare" ("Silok", "Piton", "Harpoon", "Piroed", "Strizh", "Lisochok"), which the tactical level of the russian troops is saturated with. Despite the fact that since the beginning of large-scale armed aggression, the enemy has lost a significant part of this equipment, today it continues to maintain a significant electronic warfare superiority. Along the Kupyansk and Bakhmut axes, the enemy actually established a layered electronic warfare system, the elements of which constantly change their location. 

As for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, by 2022, such modern electronic warfare assets with UAVs such as "Bukovel-AD", "Enclave", "Khmara", "Nota" were adopted, which later proved themselves well in combat. But despite this, at the beginning of the war, about 65% of jamming stations types in units (elements) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were produced by the former Soviet Union, and there were only 25 new ones. 

Given the limited capabilities of the domestic defence-industrial complex, the build-up of EW capabilities was carried out at the expense of international military material and logistical assistance, by obtaining systems (assets) of detection and electronic warfare against UAVs, anti-drone guns, tactical mobile direction-finding systems, EW systems with on-board radar stations, etc. 

To date, the capabilities to counter enemy high-precision weapons (guided missiles, UAVs) are being increased by deploying the "Pokrova" nationwide EW system with the possibility of replacing the satellite radio navigation field ("spoofing"), suppressing satellite radio navigation along the entire line of contact and in most parts of Ukraine. The development and implementation of elements of situational awareness systems into command and control processes is also under way: "Graphite" - for automated transmission and display of data about the flight of small UAVs; "Quartz" - for collecting, processing, displaying data and managing radio-electronic assets. At this time, we have practically achieved a parity in the EW tasks performance, which significantly complicates the possibility of achieving superiority by both the armed forces of the russian federation and Ukraine, when employing weapons and troops in general. 

Thus, relying on the strategic superiority in military, economic, human, natural resource and scientific potential and relatively appropriate conditions for its implementation, the occupying armed forces are still not able to fully implement the plans of the russian general staff. At the same time, it should be noted that despite this, countermeasure to the achievement of military-political objectives by the aggressor state comes at a high cost for Ukraine and its Armed Forces. The above is especially acute in the current course of counteroffensive actions in the summer-autumn period. Thus, de facto, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other components of the Security and Defence Forces involved in repelling armed aggression, practically along the entire line of contact between the parties and in the border areas with the russian federation, faced the need to overcome the military parity problem. First of all, its existence is stipulated by the reasons related to parity in the air, minefields, counter-battery and electronic warfare, and the creation of reserves.

 Ways to overcome the positional nature of hostilities.

 The need to avoid the transition to a positional form of hostilities, such as the "trench war" of 1914-1918, necessitates the search for new and non-trivial approaches to breaking the military parity with the enemy. The main idea of the way out of the current situation can be presented illustratively in the picture. 

The main ways to overcome the positional nature of hostilities, which began to manifest itself on the contact line in the summer of 2023, should be considered as follows.

 As for gaining air superiority:

•        simultaneous en-masse use of cheap unmanned aerial target simulators and attack UAVs in a single combat formation in order to overload the enemy's air defence system, mislead the enemy about the number of real targets in the raid and expose elements of the enemy's air defence system; 

•        hunting down enemy UAVs with the help of our own hunter drones with trap nets on board in order to directly eliminate a destructive threat of materiel and personnel on the battlefield by kamikaze drones;

•        use of radiation simulators of the medium-range anti-aircraft missile system to target illumination stations in close proximity to the contact line in order to reduce the effectiveness of the use of glide guided bombs against our troops when assuming offensive (due to the fact that carrier aircraft will launch guided bombs from the maximum possible ranges) and reduce the manned aviation intensity due to the pilots' refusal to conduct sorties; 

•        blinding of thermal imaging reconnaissance equipment and UAVs targeting with stroboscopes at night in order to complicate (prevent) strikes on the positions of troops (pieces of weapons and equipment) at night using UAVs equipped with thermal imaging equipment; 

•        en-masse use of electronic warfare assets (small and portable jamming transmitters, anti-drone guns, etc.) along the contact line of the parties to counter enemy UAVs in order to increase the ground forces protection from enemy UAVs.

 As for counter-battery:

•     building up local GPS fields to improve the operation of precision guided munition navigation tools;

•        increasing the share of tasks on counter-battery, which are solved by reconnaissance and fire complexes based on kamikaze drones; 

•       use of counter-battery assets in combination with measures to mislead the enemy; 

•      increasing the capabilities of artillery reconnaissance equipment provided within the framework of international materiel and logistical assistance, through the use of non-standard settings.

 As for mine barriers breaching in depth:

•        use of LiDAR scanning sensors to obtain situational information on breaching on the ground; the “Rosy” smoke protection systems to conceal the activities of obstacle-clearing detachments (teams) from enemy ISR and fires; damaged equipment (without crews), which retained its manoeuvre capabilities;

•        use of jet engines of decommissioned aircraft, water monitors (water cannons) or industrial water monitors, cluster artillery munition for breaching mine barriers that are installed without being dug in the ground; 

•       use of a mini tunnel excavator with a drill, Rapid Burrowing Robot (RBR), empty hoses for the injection of gaseous or liquid explosives, missiles with a fuel-air explosive for breaching mine barriers; 

•        use of anti-drone guns to counter enemy reconnaissance UAVs, which will increase the level of obstacle-clearing detachments (teams) concealment while breaching mine barriers.

 As for creating own reserves and combating enemy ones:

•         introduction of the "Oberih" Unified State Register of draftees, persons liable for military service and reservists into the activities of the command and control bodies; 

•       attracting more citizens of Ukraine to the military reserve;

•       creation of an automated control system and accounting of training of Ukrainian citizens for military service and national resistance;

•        expanding the list of categories of Ukrainian citizens with whom training for military service and national resistance is conducted;

•         introduction of combat internship practice; 

As for electronic warfare:

•        introduction into the command and control processes of elements of the "Pokrova", "Graphite",   "Quartz" situational awareness systems, as well as data exchange gained from Defence Forces ISR    assets (systems);

•       increasing the capabilities to monitor the current electronic situation in the areas of combat    operations through the use of the capabilities of Partner Nations. In particular, we need to provide the  possibility of expanded access to data from air, sea and space assets of signal intelligence;

•      increasing the capabilities for conducting electronic warfare from UAVs during assault operations by   combined arms elements;

•      organization and conduct of counter-EW measures to detect, recognize, isolate and defeat the sources of electronic radiation of the enemy; 

•      search for opportunities to increase the production of electronic warfare systems with the "Bukovel-  AD" UAVs on the territory of Ukraine and abroad;

•    streamlining the use of "trench electronic warfare", which comes to the forces from volunteer   organizations, in order to exclude cases of suppression of their own UAVs ("friendly fire");

•      improvement of existing and development of new domestic EW systems, taking into account the  prospect of conducting "electromagnetic warfare" throughout the "electromagnetic spectrum", which    covers a much wider frequency range (from γ-radiation to terahertz radiation).

 Command and control.

 Improving the effectiveness of command and control is essential in the process of implementing the proposed ways out of positional warfare. This can be done through the widespread use of modern information technology in the command and control system, which will ensure: the formation of a single information environment; creation of conditions for information superiority; effective coordination of the activities of subordinate troops (forces). As a result, this will allow to get ahead of the enemy in matters of situational awareness and make decisions faster and, in general, ensure the achievement of a goal of an operation in terms of positional warfare. The key components that will influence the achievement of superiority in situational awareness are the processes of organizing communications, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. 

Logistics Support.

 One of the determining factors that significantly impacts the success of the implementation of the proposed ways to change the nature of the war and achieve goals is the rational organization of logistics support for the state Defence Forces.

 Repelling the full-scale armed aggression of the enemy, conducting defensive and counteroffensive operations require a huge number of resources: human, mobilization, financial, materiel, etc. At the same time, the experience of the russian-Ukrainian war testifies to the actualization of almost forgotten concepts, for example, such as the accumulation of stocks of missiles and ammunition, and other logistics assets. After the end of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact states, this concept lost its relevance, but today it has become important both for the enemy and for our state. 

The russian armed forces spend a large number of missiles and ammunition, but it should be recognized that some preparations for the war were done, so russia at this time retains and is able to maintain a superiority in weapons and equipment, missiles and ammunition for a considerable time, while the capabilities of the military industry are increasing, despite the introduction by the world's leading countries of unprecedented sanctions against the aggressor state. 

The Armed Forces of Ukraine are provided with extensive materiel and logistical assistance by Partner Nations, however, given the increased intensity of average daily missiles and ammunition consumption, it is not possible to accumulate these funds in the required volumes since large armed forces are deployed, so all logistics assets provided within the framework of material and logistical assistance are distributed among forces according to the priority principle. Partner Nations and NATO member countries are currently dramatically increasing the production capacity of weapons and ammunition, but this process is quite long. According to various assessments, it takes at least a year to deploy large-scale production of weapons and equipment, missiles and ammunition, and other logistics assets, and in some types – two years. 

To continue the effective destruction of enemy warehouses, disruption of supply chains and an increasing trucking distance for ammunition and other logistics assets, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to adopt missiles with an increased range, preferably of their own production. 

The main ways to improve the efficiency of logistics support are: development and capacity building of the Ukrainian defence industry; creation and development of an asymmetric arsenal of weapons and equipment in Ukraine; creation, production and deployment of new weapons. At the same time, when planning and organizing logistics support, it is necessary to take into account the enemy's ability of fire effects on the mobile and stationary components of logistics support assets of troops (forces).

 Key takeaways. 

The transition of the war to a positional form leads to its prolongation and carries significant risks for both the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the state as a whole. In addition, it is beneficial to the enemy, who is trying in every possible way to reconstitute and increase its military power.

 To get out of the positional form at the current stage of warfare, first of all, it is necessary to: gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery and electronic warfare; create and prepare the necessary reserves. It should be taken into account that the widespread use of information technology in military affairs and the rational organization of logistics support play a significant role in finding a way out of the positional form of warfare. The need to avoid transitioning from a positional form to a manoeuvrable one necessitates searching for new and non-trivial approaches to break military parity with the enemy