Bloomberg—Bloomberg via Getty ImagesKevin Rudd, foreign minister of Australia, speaks during the 65th annual United Nations General Assembly at the UN in New York, U.S., on Saturday, Sept. 25, 2010. The General Debate portion of the General Assembly runs until Sept. 29. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images
The UN is still important, but it needs to be reformed for a new age
In an age of a fracturing political support for the European Union, the re-birth of American isolationism, the growing international political confidence on the parts of both Russia and China, the daily threat of violent jihadism and a chronically weak global economy, deep questions have arisen about the long-term durability of what we continue to blithely refer to as the “post-war global order.” The uncomfortable truth is that many of the assumptions underpinning the current order are under profound challenge. Geopolitically, U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia relations are more unstable than they have been in a quarter of a century, even as Russia-China relations have rarely been closer.
Geoeconomically, despite the Chinese economic slowdown, China remains on track to surpass the U.S. as the biggest economy in the world sometime next decade—the first time since the reign of Britain’s King George III that a non-western, non-democratic, non-English speaking country has occupied this position.
Meanwhile the dynamics of globalization, driven by finance and technology, are compounding in speed, intensity and complexity. On the one hand, this is generating greater demand for effective global governance, in areas such as finance, terrorism and climate change. But on the other we are confronted by a new range of counter-globalization forces, from those who aren’t benefiting from globalization, expressed as rampant nationalism, protectionism and xenophobia. Politicians like Donald Trump, Nigel Farage, and Marine Le Pen are just the most notable of several such manifestations around the world. This is turn is producing a crisis of the nation state itself, caught in a new no-man’s land between this combination of centripetal and centrifugal forces being generated by the “globalization of everything,” with the state itself rendered increasingly powerless. The resulting political alienation of the citizenry has, in turn, been compounded by nearly a decade of poor global growth, high unemployment and even worse, chronically high youth unemployment, both in the developed and developing worlds. People now see their states are increasingly useless in dealing with their real problems. All this is before a further quantum disruption arises from the next generation of technological change, in particular in the mass application of artificial intelligence, and the emergence of “jobs-free” growth across a growing number of industries. We have barely begun to calculate the full domestic and international impact of this profound economic change. We will need to recalibrate the idea of a viable “social contract,” both within and between states, if we are to maximize the prospects of poverty alleviation, greater equality and long-term political stability. Finally there is our collective date with demographic destiny. Global population is projected to increase by one third by mid-century, and in parts of the world that are already the least politically stable, and most economically vulnerable. And all this in an employment-starved world, sowing the seeds for a new wave of political extremism, religious fundamentalism and the mass movements of peoples seeking better and more secure lives elsewhere. Most challenging of all, this extraordinary cocktail of strategic, political, economic, social and technological change is unfolding all at once. Neither our national, nor our international institutions are capable of the effective action necessary to deal with these challenges. In fact, as the demand for effective global governance becomes stronger, the actual supply of such governance has rarely been weaker. So what can be done? We cannot wave a magic wand and expect the state of great power relations to suddenly improve. Nor can we simply release pious statements railing expecting governments to resist the politically seductive, albeit economically destructive, temptation of the new protectionism, re-open the arteries of global trade and rebuild global growth. Even less can we call a halt to technological innovation, not least because of the remarkable good it also delivers humankind. But what we can do is act to improve the effectiveness of the creaking institutions of global governance that we do have at our disposal, because these are the very mechanisms that are available to us to sustain a working global order, a rules-based system and through them respond to the major challenges of our time. Principal among these is the United Nations, now 70 years old, the core of what remains of the multilateral system. Its in danger of drifting into global irrelevance. But despite the deep skepticism that now surrounds the institution’s effectiveness, the UN still matters, and matters more than we think, because it remains the formal corner stone on which much of the current global order rests—whether we happen to be conscious of that reality, or not. In fact, it’s because the UN has become such a comfortable part of the international furniture, we tend to take it for granted, and we’ve allowed it to drift. While the UN is not broken, it is in real trouble, as states increasingly bypass it when looking for solutions to major global problems. But if through a combination of political indifference and benign neglect, the international community does allow the UN to slowly “die the death of a thousand cuts,” we would rapidly become aware of the gaping hole it would leave in the current order, as states began reverting to the sort of unilateral, aggressively bilateral, or Darwinist behaviors we thought we had consigned to an earlier age. Its therefore worth recalling what the UN uniquely offers the international community, and why it is worth defending and strengthening for the future:
An agreed Charter containing global norms and procedures which could never be renegotiated in the current age;
An entrenched principle of multilateralism, based on the sovereign equality of states, that provides a global decision-making process, that benefits smaller and middle powers who collectively make up more than 90% of the international community;
A source of unchallenged global legitimacy;
A unique claim to universality;
A vast system of international law, norms and dispute resolution mechanisms and procedures, covering domains from terrorism to telecommunications.
A unique capacity for collective action on threats to international peace and security, ranging from sanctions to authorised armed intervention.
A capacity for collective action on sustainable development, from poverty to climate;
A capacity to act rapidly and at scale to natural, or man-made, humanitarian disasters;
A unique global convening power to deal with new global challenges as they arise;
A capacity for the UN, through the Secretary General, to take initiatives on its own account, to deal with intractable global problems.
These do not of themselves solve the deep problems now confronting the global order. But if properly harnessed, they represent a mechanism for doing so, drawing afresh on this extraordinary list of institutional strengths. And this in turn will require the next secretary-general to implement far-reaching reforms to radically improve the efficiency and effectiveness of the UN, to convince member states that, properly empowered, the UN can make a measurable difference in solving the great global problems for which purpose it was established in the first place. The Hon Kevin Rudd, a former Prime Minister of Australia, president of the Asia Society Policy Instiute in New York, Chair of the International Commission on Multilateralism, and author of
'Vinod Gandhi' via IESM_Group<iesm_group@googlegroups.com>
10:39 AM (3 hours ago)
to yahoogroups, yahoogroups, REPORT, Inderjit, Fauji, Ravindra, Exservicemen, Exservicemen, Anil
Dear Members
IESM has been taking up the issues, which concern welfare of ESM, strongly with Govt. OROP is one of the main issues. IESM had started RHS and agitation at JM for approval of OROP which was passed by Govt in their budgets in Feb 14 by UPA Govt and then in July 14 by NDA Govt. NDA Govt finally released OROP on 7 Nov 15 but it was truncated OROP and is not as per approved definition of OROP.IESM continued with the agitation at JM to press for full OROP. It is very important to note that Govt had never issued any clarification as to why did Govt not release full OROP. Only Govt can answer this question. ESM will ask this question in assembly elections in Punjab, Uttar Khand and UP and then in next general elections in 2019. Govt will have to give a reply to get ESM votes.
However on the suggestion of Defence Minister that Govt cannot be forced to remove anomalies in OROP with the gun of agitation pointing at head of the Govt. IESM in consultation with ESM decided to temporarily suspend RHS on 29 Apr 16 to confirm that ESM do not want confrontation with Govt and would be happy to create a congenial atmosphere for talks. ESM are disappointed with the Govt because Govt is refusing to engage JM with talks even after suspension of RHS.
It is noteworthy that the BJP Govt won with clear majority in General elections in May 2014 because of swing created by ESM vote in favor of BJP. ESM reserve their right of franchise and vote for a party which will solve ESM problems and will fulfill the promises given to ESM and public.
Jumlas will not be accepted now.
Some ESM have got together and have decided to register a political party in the name of FOUJI JANATA PARTY. This is only to ensure that fouji vote and their family vote is united under one umbrella and is used to create a pressure gp to demand welfare from the political parties.
No one can deny independence of franchise and IESM is first to ensure that every ESM is free to align with any party and vote as per his choice/conscience. The underlying principle here must be that ESM vote must benefit ESM family and should not be used for personal aggrandizement. However effort to unite ESM vote under one umbrella will continue.
The organizers of FJP have requested Maj Gen Satbir Singh and leaders of agitation at JM to help them in unifying the ESM vote bank under one umbrella to ensure that it is used for benefit of ESM. Maj Gen Satbir Singh has consented to guide FJP at this crucial time. Maj Gen Satbir Singh has issued a clarification that he personally will not seek any favors from any party and will not contest election till full approval of OROP. His clarification is pasted below.
It is very unfortunate that some ESM and some ESM groups, instead of appreciating/joining unity efforts of FJP, have started a campaign against unity move. The reasons are not difficult to understand. These desperate ESM and ESM groups/have already aligned with some political party and hence are opposing the unity move. These desperate groups are only looking for their personal aggrandizement and hence misleading the ESM. These groups have also started a vilification campaign against Maj Gen Satbir Singh and organizers of JM. Some of the mails published in Sanjha Morcha blog and some of the mails/statements of other individual ESM/gps are part of this vilification campaign against JM agitation and its organizers. ESM are requested to remain vigilant and befitting reply to these self centered ESM and ESM gps.
Environment would have noticed that IESM/UFESMJM has never issued any statement against any individual ESM, ESM gp or any other ESM party.
In view of above background following clarification is
issued by IESM.
This is with reference to a news item appearing in Jalandhar and statement appearing in a blog called "Sanjha Mocha' regarding establishing a political party called FAUJI JANTA PARTY (FJP). The aim of the FJP is to unite ESM vote bank and use ESM vote bank for welfare of ESM. For this purpose FJP may contest the forthcoming Punjab, Uttar Khand and Uttar Pradesh elections in 2017 by fielding suitable ESM with proven track record and proven honesty. This exercise could be carried out in conjunction with main line pol parties and other like minded groups.
Some ESM and ESM groups are issuing statements against IESM and JM agitation implying involvement of JM and its leaders in politics and political process. These statements are baseless and are completely denied by IESM.
This is to categorically and unequivocally deny any such involvement of IESM and members of the governing body of IESM in any political activity. In this respect clarification issued by Maj Gen Satbir Singh Chairman IESM, Advisor UFESM JM and Advisor FJP is given below
CLARIFICATION
17 Aug 2016
Dear Friends,
1. I find that rumours are being spread that IESM is going political and the funds donated for the OROP Protest Movement will be used for political purposes.
2. I wish to reiterate, emphasise and confirm the following:-
(a) IESM is not rpt not going political. However, some members of the Defence Fraternity have formed a Political Party by the Name Fauji Janta Party (FJP) to restore the Izzat and Status of the Soldiers and play its rightful role in the governance of the Nation.
(b) No funds donated for the OROP Movement will be spent on any Political Activity.
(c) I or any member of the Governing Body of IESM will not fight the Political Election till the OROP Movement is in progress.
(d) The members of the Defence Fraternity who have formed the FJP have however requested me to guide them in their efforts. I have informed them that I would be available for any advice when asked for.
3. This is for your information and further circulation to the members of Defene Fraternity.
With regards,
Yours Sincerely,
Maj Gen Satbir Singh, SM (Retd) Chairman Indian Ex-Servicemen Movement (IESM) Mobile: 9312404269, 01244110570Email:satbirsm@gmail.com
Regards
Gp Capt VK Gandhi VSM Gen Sec IESM
OROP is our right. Dilution in OROP will NOT be accepted.
DHOLAVIRA COULD HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY A TSUNAMI -- NIO
NIO finds Dholavira ‘treasure’
By
Nida Sayed
READ ALSO
[ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dholavira ]
Aug 30, 2016.
PANAJI: In a major find through a project undertaken by the Goa-based National Institute of Oceanography (NIO), scientists have excavated the ancient submerged site of the Harappan port town of Dholavira which reveals to the world India's maritime history.Located in Gujarat, Dholavira was the largest port-town of the Harappan civilization that flourished for about 1,500 years. Researchers have been perplexed about why the civilization came to an abrupt end. Archaeological excavations indicate that the township comprised of the castle, the middle town and the lower town.
Dholavira is the oldest known site in the world which could have been hit by the tsunami, experts at the NIO said. As per their latest findings, there is indication of marine sediments possibly transported to the site by an extreme oceanic incident, which they attribute to the tsunami.
A team of palaeo-climatologists, marine archaeologists and geophysicists from NIO surveyed an unexcavated area of the lower town using ground penetrating radar (GPR).
What lay beneath the surface were remains of construction from the civilization that were buried under a layer of 2.5 to 3.5 meter thick homogenous soil.
After systematically collecting the soil samples and examining the same, the scientists found fossils of foraminifera, that is, microscopic organisms that build calcareous shells and live only in seawater.
The presence of these shells in the soil strongly suggests an episodic deposition of marine sediments in the area. "The deposition of such a component from seawater into the soil could have occurred due to forceful movement caused by an extreme oceanic event, like the tsunami," said director, NIO, Dr S W A Naqvi.
One of the most intriguing features of Dholavira is the presence of a 14-18 meters thick wall at the site.
Sharing his thoughts about the same, chief scientist, Dr Rajiv Nigam who led the research said, "Most Harappan walls have fortification but nowhere have any walls been constructed with such thickness. This indicates that ancient Indians were aware of protection measures against the tsunami or storms surges. Harappans were thus pioneers in coastal disaster management. Most importantly, results of this study opens the possibility that Dholavira, at least in part, could have been destroyed by such a tsunami,"This begs the question as to why the people of Dholavira would choose to build a civilization around such a vulnerable area. "Dholavira was an economically strategic location. So they built the city despite being prone to storms and protected it with a thick wall," added Nigam.
Dholavira was well connected to the ocean 5,000 years ago but it's not anymore owing to shifts due to tectonic movement.
Further research will enable NIO to date the calcareous shells and determine when the tsunami may have taken place.
"We would like to pursue this project and are currently awaiting funds from the central government," said Nigam.
For more research, close grid survey of the site is required for which NIO has applied to the Union ministry of art and culture. The budget for the same is Rs 35 lakhs. NIO doesn't have a mandate for excavation as the authority for the same is only under the archaeological survey of India (ASI). They are optimistic that the ASIwill go ahead with the excavation.
"HIJRAH" IS 'JEHAD' by means of mass migration without 'VISA' with a political intent
NO MUSLIM COUNTRY WILL EVER ACCEPT "HIJRAHS" . THE VERY ACT OF ADMITTING "HIJRAHS" WILL BE DEEMED AS AN AN UNISLAMIC ACT "HIJRAHS" CAN ONLY ENTER IN A NON MUSLIM COUNTRY, ONLY THEN IT WILL BE A 'JEHAD'
Approximately 104,460 asylum seekers arrived in Germany during the month of August, setting a new record. That makes 413,535 registered refugees and migrants coming to Germany in 2015 so far. The country expects a total of around 800,000 people to seek asylum in Germany this year. And that’s just Germany. The entire continent of Europe is being inundated with refugees at a rate unprecedented in world history. This is no longer just a “refugee crisis.”
This is a hijrah. Hijrah, or jihad by emigration, is, according to Islamic tradition, the migration or journey of Muhammad and his followers from Mecca to Yathrib, later renamed by him to Medina, in the year 622 CE. It was after the hijrah that Muhammad for the first time became not just a preacher of religious ideas, but a political and military leader. That was what occasioned his new “revelations” exhorting his followers to commit violence against unbelievers. Significantly, the Islamic calendar counts the hijrah, not Muhammad’s birth or the occasion of his first “revelation,” as the beginning of Islam, implying that Islam is not fully itself without a political and military component. To emigrate in the cause of Allah – that is, to move to a new land in order to bring Islam there, is considered in Islam to be a highly meritorious act. “And whoever emigrates for the cause of Allah will find on the earth many locations and abundance,” says the Qur’an. “And whoever leaves his home as an emigrant to Allah and His Messenger and then death overtakes him, his reward has already become incumbent upon Allah. And Allah is ever Forgiving and Merciful.” (4:100) The exalted status of such emigrants led a British jihad group that won notoriety (and a shutdown by the government) a few years ago for celebrating 9/11 to call itself Al-Muhajiroun: The Emigrants. And now a hijrah of a much greater magnitude is upon us. Evidence that this is a hijrah, not simply a humanitarian crisis, came last February, but was little noted at the time and almost immediately forgotten. The Islamic State published a document entitled, “Libya: The Strategic Gateway for the Islamic State.” Gateway into Europe, that is: the document exhorted Muslims to go to Libya and cross from there as refugees into Europe. This document tells would-be jihadis that weapons from Gaddafi’s arsenal are plentiful and easy to obtain in Libya – and that the country “has a long coast and looks upon the southern Crusader states, which can be reached with ease by even a rudimentary boat.”
The Islamic State did not have in mind just a few jihadis crossing from Libya: it also emerged last February that the jihadis planned to flood Europe with as many as 500,000 refugees. Now the number is shooting well beyond that in Germany alone. Of course, not all of these refugees are Islamic jihadis. Not all are even Muslims, although most are. However, no effort whatsoever is being made to determine the refugees’ adherence to Sharia and desire to bring it to their new land. Any such effort would be “Islamophobic.” Yet there are already hints that the Islamic State is putting its plan into effect: jihadis have already been found among the refugees trying to enter Europe. There will be many more such discoveries. Eight hundred thousand Muslim refugees in one year alone. This will transform Germany, and Europe, forever, overtaxing the welfare economies of its wealthiest nations and altering the cultural landscape beyond recognition. Yet the serious public discussion that needs to be had about this crisis is shouted down by the usual nonsense: the Washington Post Wednesday published an inflammatory and irresponsible piece likening those concerned about this massive Muslim influx into Europe to 1930s Nazis ready to incinerate Jews by the millions. Hollywood star Emma Thompson accused British authorities of racism for not taking in more refugees – as if British authorities haven’t already done enough to destroy their nation. And so it goes. If you don’t accept the brave new world that is sure to bring more jihad and more Sharia to Europe, you’re a Nazi and a racist. Meanwhile, no one is bothering even to ask, much less answer, one central question: why is it incumbent upon Europe have to absorb all these refugees? Why not Saudi Arabia or the other Muslim countries that are oil-rich and have plenty of space? The answer is unspoken because non-Muslim authorities refuse to believe it and Muslims don’t want it stated or known: these refugees have to go to Europe because this is a hijrah.
This is also Europe’s death knell
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Large scale mass migrations become invasions and this actually appears to be a hijrah as he describes it .........
It appears the policies of the liberal socialist leaders in Europe and the US do not want to keep these lands from being overrun. Why???
I couldn't figure out why other Arab countries (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman, etc.) weren't taking in refugees, so I started digging.
Hijrah is jihad by emigration. It means moving to a new land in order to bring Islam there and is considered in Islam to be a holy and revered action. "And whoever emigrates for the cause of Allah will find on the earth many locations and abundance, and whoever leaves his home as an emigrant to Allah and His Messenger and then death overtakes him, his reward has already become incumbent upon Allah." (4:100) So if a Muslim dies in the process, that's essentially the same as being a suicide bomber, his reward is automatic. This explains the great eagerness to undertake such a perilous journey.
Muhammad and his followers emigrated from Mecca to Yathrib/Medina in 622 CE. It was there that he became a military leader & still uneducated.
This is where all the commands to commit violence against unbelievers originate from. It's important to note that the Islamic calendar marks this as the beginning of Islam.
This current massive hijrah was announced last January although fewpaid the announcement much attention.
A supporter (or member) of ISIS uploaded a document in Arabic that urged Muslims to get to Libya for its proximity to southern Europe and for the important tactical value of its illegal immigration circuits to facilitate infiltration of European cities ("It has a long coast and looks upon the southern Crusader states, which can be reached with ease by even a rudimentary boat").
In February, transcripts of telephone intercepts published in Italy said ISIS was threatening to send 500,000 migrants as a "psychological weapon" against Europe . The Italian Minister for the Interior, Angelino Alfano, said at the time, "If the militias of the Caliphate advance faster than the decisions of the international community how can we put out the fire in Libya and stem the migration flows?
We are at risk of an exodus without precedent.
Also in February, the Turkish intelligence service warned police that up to 3,000 trained jihadists were seeking to cross into Turkey from Syria and Iraq and then travel through Bulgaria and Hungary into western Europe. From Syria , to Hungary & then into the rest of Europe.
Sound familiar?
In May, a Libyan government adviser warned that Islamic State operatives were being" smuggled to Europe in migrant boats."
ISIS is profiting from the human trafficking trade, forcing boat owners to hand over their profits or be killed.
Some ISIS operatives are already sheltered in safe houses in the south of the Europe . Groups of men, 17 to 25, from Palestine and Syria, cross into Bulgaria and from there move into the rest of the EU. A former Al Qaeda double agent told the BBC that he knew of two Egyptian brothers who reached Italy from Libya, accompanied by men who were "deeply religious and fluent in Italian and French."
Go watch the videos of those "refugees" again. How many of the "refugees" are 17-25 year old men? Of military age?
If that doesn't convince you, we already know terrorists are coming through with the waves of refugees: a week ago five men were arrested attempting to cross the Bulgarian-Macedonian border with Islamic State propaganda, specific Jihadists prayers, and decapitation videos on their phones.
They had been posing as refugees. UK Independence Party leader Nigel Farage warned: "I fear we face a direct threat to our civilization if we allow large numbers of people from that war torn region into Europe."
Other Muslim countries are not "taking in" these "refugees" because this is a hijrah into Europe . This is no humanitarian crisis. It is an invasion. Its goal is to transform Europe: over tax its economies, tear down its wealthiest nations, re-draw the demographics and, of course, the culture. And our government wants to start letting them into our Country? Are we all Forest Gumps? Is this worth sending on?
Game for the throne : More instability expected in Afghanistan By Lt Gen P. C. Katoch
Updated:Sep 2, 2016
In April-June 2012, ‘Democracy International’ surveyed 176 Members of the Afghan Parliament (121 from Lower House and 55 from Upper House) seeking their views on elections, electoral laws and governance. Most agreed that electoral reforms were necessary to strengthen the country's electoral system and improve the government’s legitimacy. Majority of them wanted change of electoral laws and electoral system, introduction of safeguards for appointment of electoral commissioners, plus confirmed women representation in Parliament. Political stability may be defined as a set of characteristic which allow the state exercise its authority, prominent ones being: lack of violence within the polity; absence of threatening changes to the core political structure; sufficient capacity by the state to control its polity, and; absence of deficient state functionality to meet its political responsibilities and a reasonable degree of regularity in the political behavior of a polity. Any changes to these patterns will serve as a catalyst to instigate instability in the nation.
In the case of Afghanistan, a survey conducted by National Centre for Policy Research based in Kabul in 2011 had opined that political instability in Afghanistan was related to: unemployment and poverty; social fragmentation; return of migrants; poppy crops and trafficking; lack of rule of law; civil society and political parties; trust and legitimacy of government; Islamic radicalism and Taliban control in some areas; weak justice; ‘Great Power Games’, and intervention of neighboring countries as more fundamental dimensions of external causes of political instability – maximum from Pakistan.
Much water has flown under the bridge since then. Take the external factor of intervention by Pakistan, assessed in 2011 by 43 percent of those surveyed as the highest among neighboring countries that would have gone up exponentially today with: Afghan clerics publicly calling for jihad against Pakistan; evidence of Pakistani involvement in frequent terror attacks in Afghanistan; Afghan President Ashraf Ghani repeatedly pointing the finger at Pakistan including for the recent terror attack on American University of Afghanistan in Kabul; former Afghan National Directorate of Security Chief, Rahmatullah Nabil releasing classified documents about Pakistan support to Afghan militant groups, specifically Haqqani network; July 2016 report by UN Assistance Mission Afghanistan (UNAMA) stating Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-i-Mohammed (JeM) are operating in Afghanistan, and Afghanistan officially telling Pakistan that Hafiz Saeed, former LeT chief is directing ISIS operations in Afghanistan.
Getting back to the political scene in Afghanistan, the aftermath of last Presidential election had witnessed considerable dissent and political turmoil. It was only because of the master of ceremonies, the USA, that a National Unity Government (NUG) was forged with Ashraf Ghani, a Pashtun, as President and Abdullah Abdullah, a Tajik, as the Chief Executive Officer (CEO). It is well known that the crux of ethnic rivalry in Afghanistan is symbolized by the struggle by Pashtuns to re-establish dominance, and Hazara, Tajik and Uzbek minorities seeking adequate representation in political power at the centre and autonomy of respective areas, with Taliban adding to the complexity compounded by external factors like Pakistan.
Talks with the Taliban itself are subject of debate in Afghanistan. Significantly, in his statement titled ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community’ to the Senate Armed Services Committee on 9 February 2017, James Clapper, Director National Intelligence had said, “The Kabul government will continue to face persistent hurdles to political stability in 2016, including eroding political cohesion, assertions of authority by local powerbrokers, recurring financial shortfalls, and countrywide, sustained attacks by the Taliban. Political cohesion will remain a challenge for Kabul as the National Unity Government will confront larger and more divisive issues later in 2016, including the implementation of election reforms, long-delayed parliamentary elections, and a potential change by a Loya Jirga that might fundamentally alter Afghanistan’s constitutional order”.
The implication of “potential change by a Loya Jirga (Grand Council) that might fundamentally alter Afghanistan’s constitutional order” as stated by James Clapper could be interpreted as the Loya Jirga preceded by parliamentary elections likely institutionalizing the CEO as the Prime Minister of Afghanistan and the Parliament hitherto largely ineffective with powers centralized with the President, would have a larger and effective role in ruling and administering Pakistan – possible change to Parliamentary democracy? As per Dr Davood Moradian, Director General, Afghan Institute of Strategic Studies, when US Secretary of State John Kerry brokered the agreement to form the National Unity Government in Afghanistan, the government was expected to implement a number of electoral and political reforms by September 2016, including organizing parliamentary elections and conveying the constitutional Loya Jirga, the grand assembly. According to Moradian, no meaningful step has been taken to honour these promises. Many are anxiously watching how Washington and the Afghan government will handle the looming September deadline; underlying causes and possible corrective measures “being overshadowed by Washington”. To top this, everything between Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah doesn’t appear to be all hunky dory.
The looming political crisis in Afghanistan could not have at a worse time. The assessment by James Clapper in February had said that the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Khorasan branch will probably remain a low-level threat to Afghan stability as well as to US and Western interests in the region during 2016, but the reverse appears happening with frequent terror attacks in Afghanistan, supported by Pakistan. Pakistan is also deliberately targeting Afghanistan’s ethnic harmony by orchestrating terrorist attacks and killing Hazaras; to polarize the Afghan society on lines of the Pashtun and the non-Pashtun. Without open discussions, countermeasures and accommodation, this is recipe for more instability. According to Dr Moradian, “Failure to manage ethnic politics is one of the drivers of socioeconomic underdevelopment, ethnic and civil wars, state collapse, ethnic cleansing and even genocide”. To compound the problems, the Taliban offensive and influence doesn’t appear to be abating either. Pakistan will continue to support anti-Afghan forces especially since it has China backing her with Chinese commercial interests in Afghanistan protected through Pakistani proxies. It is imperative for Afghanistan to arrive at a political agreement on the framework and principles of political power to govern Afghanistan, and implement it speedily.
(Lt Gen P. C. Katoch is veteran Indian Army. Comments and suggestions on the article can be sent on: editor@spsindia.in)
Despite all efforts of whitewashing the contribution of India to world civilization by the modern ‘western’ world, truth has its way of being unravelled.
Centuries of efforts have failed miserably to establish the Aryan invasion theory and Aryan migration theory and that has shattered other assumptions related to the of Indo-European languages. Stephen Oppenheimer has elegantly depicted the migration of human race from Africa to India and beyond in
