Friday, August 21, 2020

How Does Galwan Valley Clash Influence The India-China Ties?

SOURCE:
https://myind.net/Home/viewArticle/how-does-galwan-valley-clash-influence-the-india-china-ties



Frederick the Great King of Prussia in the 18th century famously said 

He who defends everything defends nothing.” 

This is something Indian strategists need to consider since defending everywhere along an extremely long (~3,488 km) and undemarcated LAC is very hard especially in face of rising Chinese belligerence. India has to start developing options of making “probes/thrusts” where the enemy is weak and least expects it. This would be necessary as either during the current standoff or during a future standoff Chinese could simply refuse to withdraw. This would force India with two unappealing options: either accept the new fait accompli or use force to evict the Chinese troops.

















             A PARTIAL GLIMPSE OF PLA                          DEPLOYMENT IN AKSAICHIN 









How Does Galwan Valley Clash Influence The                            India-China Ties?


contributed by




Couple of weeks ago the border standoff between India & China exploded and we have had a brutal conflict at one of those places at the Galwan River Valley. As things stand today, we had official reports stating 20 Indian soldiers (including 1 Colonel) were killed. This was in addition to reports that many Chinese soldiers were also dead and/or injured in the same conflict.
The details of the conflict are still emerging and it is hard for us to analyze the happenings right away without the complete information. We however want to analyze why the conflict happened in the first place and how this was a disaster in the making for all these years.

Rules based engagement at the Line of Actual Control


India China relations witnessed an upswing from the visit of the then Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to Beijing in December of 1988. Many low hanging fruits were earmarked as Confidence Building Measures which were taken in due course of time. One such was the 1996 Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas. Article IV is of special interest to us. It began by saying that “With a view to preventing dangerous military activities along the line of actual control in the India-China border areas, the two sides agree as follows:”.

In where Clause (1) states Neither side shall open fire, cause bio-degradation, use hazardous chemicals, conduct blast operations or hunt with guns or explosives within two kilometers from the line of actual control. This prohibition shall not apply to routine firing activities in small arms firing ranges”.

So technically, it was right that the Indian soldiers did not open fire although they carried arms with them.

However, Clause (4) states “If the border personnel of the two sides come in a face-to-face situation due to differences on the alignment of the line of actual control or any other reason, they shall exercise self-restraint and take all necessary steps to avoid an escalation of the situation. Both sides shall also enter into immediate consultations through diplomatic and/or other available channels to review the situation and prevent any escalation of tension.”

Over the years, this imposition of self-restraint led to pushing, fisticuffs, etc.

This clause then was superseded by the 2005 and 2013 agreements in which the corresponding articles stated that if the two sides came to a face-to-face situation, both sidesshall exercise self-restraint and take all necessary steps to avoid an escalation of the situation”, adding that “Throughout the face-to-face situation, neither side shall use force or threaten to use force against the other”.


If you have been our regular listener, you will know that we have been saying often that the situation at the LAC is always vulnerable to be misused / overlooked by an angry soldier. The peace maintained at the line was never going to be permanent. So, what happened on June 15th  is worth having one brief look.

On June 16th, there was an official Indian statement initially that 1 Commanding Officer and 2 jawans were killed in a violent face-off with the Chinese soldiers. Later in the night, there was an additional statement which said that there were 20 soldiers in total (including the 3 mentioned earlier in the day) who were killed in action. These statements also indicated that there were an unknown number of casualties on the Chinese side as well indicating a violent and brutal faceoff.

Be that as it may, 2 things that we had mentioned earlier continue to remain valid even now looking at all the satellite images. 1. No crossing of LAC by Chinese troops 2. Chinese didn’t bring 10K troops as claimed by some alarmists.

What was the official Indian reaction?


Now, it becomes imperative that we try to understand how PM Narendra Modi explained the whole situation to both the people and also to the other politicians in the All Party Meeting. He said that 20 of our brave soldiers had made the supreme sacrifice in Ladakh but also taught a lesson to those who dared to look towards our motherland and added that the sacrifice of soldiers wouldn’t go in vain. He also said Neither is anyone inside our territory nor is any of our post captured”. This ruffled a lot of feathers. Questions like if no one came inside our territory, why did our soldiers die? Are the satellite images lying that the Chinese are firmly established at Finger 4 when our claim line is at Finger 8 at Pangong Tso. When the Prime Minister is saying no one is in our territory, is he telling only the half truth about Galwan and hiding the facts about Pangong Tso? In a way, this was very unusual coming from the Prime Minister himself who is known to be very eloquent with his words. His statements actually raised more questions than answering especially at a time when national security was being discussed in minute detail.

The clarifications came the next day and surprisingly said that mischievous interpretation was given to remarks of the Prime Minister. In this clarification, it was reiterated that the PM’s remarks were focused on the events of June 15th at Galwan.

PM’s statement will be dissected more and more simply because three days prior to that the MEA had released a statement about Minister Jaishankar’ s phone call with Foreign Minister of China Wang Yi. The statement, while making a reference to the de-escalation and disengagement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC), elaborated how the Chinese had walked back on their words. The statement continued, While there was some progress, the Chinese side sought to erect a structure in Galwan valley on our side of the LAC. While this became a source of dispute, the Chinese side took premeditated and planned action that was directly responsible for the resulting violence and casualties. It reflected an intent to change the facts on ground in violation of all our agreements to not change the status quo.”

How Did the Chinese Respond?


A few days later, the Chinese issued a statement saying that the Indians provoked the clash. The spokesperson said “India’s border troops under the guise of darkness, trespassed into China’s territory and provoked the incident. China’s troops had to take necessary measures to strengthen their response and their management of the border areas.” He also added, “In the evening of June 15, India’s frontline troops went against the agreement reached at the Commander-level meeting, crossed the LAC and sabotaged the tents Chinese side set up.”

How to make sense of all the varied reports of clashes?


For India it would not be acceptable to have the loss of territorial jurisdiction or make concessions in claim lines. As a democracy, audience cost makes it more difficult for India to agree to a negotiated settlement that can be even remotely interpreted as ‘concessionary’. Already, Prime Minister Modi’s assertion that there are no outsiders on Indian Territory nor any border post has been captured by foreign forces has been interpreted as an instance of Modi’s willingness to pay a political price to avoid further escalation.
This interpretation can be contested. A careful examination of the timeline of events and detailed media accounts of the Galwan clash (read reports from Shiv Aroor and Manu Pubby report) indicate that India may have crossed over to the Chinese side of the LAC, and Modi’s statement might have been intended towards giving China a face-saver and ensuring de-escalation at LAC.
He Xiangqi, deputy director general of boundary and ocean affairs, said that China did not suffer heavy casualties in the deadly brawl and has also chosen not to reveal the number thinking that a comparison could stir up hostility.
She told diplomats who had met her “Exact casualties were not publicized as China did not want the media to play it up. Now was the time for both sides to find ways to de-escalate the situation and restore stability. Comparisons may trigger antagonism on both sides, which is not helpful”.

Military & Strategic Angle


What has been the trajectory of strained India-China relations influenced by the border issue?


Starting from the 1950’s relations between India and China have remained strained due to deep mistrust of each other including the wounds of the 1962 war. There had been a slow but steady warming in the ties between India and China for the past few decades since the historic visit of then PM Rajiv Gandhi to Beijing in December 1988. Multiple different CBM’s (Confidence Building Measures) in 1988, 1993, 1996, 2005 & 2013, combined with cooperation on common issues like climate change, more diplomatic engagement, increase in bilateral trade etc. injected more positivity in the relationship. While this didn’t bring the relationship back to the level of the “Hindi Cheeni Bhai Bhai” heyday of the early 1950’s it was at a much better state than in the tumultuous 1960s. This border skirmish has now virtually extinguished any remote possibility of full rapprochement between these two Asian giants for now.

The CBM’s were instituted to maintain what was referred to as “peace and tranquility” at the border which was very violently breached on the evening of June 15, 2020. As we had said just a few weeks ago (in our last podcast Episode 26 India China standoff) that “The current agreements to manage the border don’t seem to be working when they were drawn up years ago. A new modus vivendi will have to be reached otherwise these events will keep happening”.

One doesn’t know that Chinese side has fully grasped the full enormity of these bloody border clashes as seen by the piece in Global Times where Chinese experts have forecasted a “soft landing” for India-China relations. While the Chinese state media puts out bizarre op-eds very frequently this has to be ranked as one of the biggest headscratchers from the Chinese state-run media in quite some time.

What is the history of Chinese behavior during times of internal crises in the past?


Historically China has always upped the pressure on its neighbors during times of internal crisis. One has to remember that the 1962 India-China war after the disastrous Great Leap Forward and the 1979 Vietnam-China war came after the tumultuous Cultural Revolution. The state run media curiously after the 2020 skirmish has tried to downplay the incident. This has led some to believe that this is more for projecting power vis a vis its neighbors with whom China shares an adversarial relationship. The assumption here is that this doesn’t seem to be for domestic consumption (to distract them from the pandemic crisis) as otherwise there would have been a flurry of over the top vitriol being published against India across multiple state run media organizations.

How do the Chinese deal with disputes with their neighbors? Is there a Method of Operation?


The Chinese M.O (Method of Operation) has been to ratchet up the pressure to enormous levels on the adversary where he thinks that China will crush them. The goal is to create doubt in the enemy’s mind about their own capabilities while over projecting Chinese capabilities simultaneously. The end goal is to create a “fear psychosis” in the enemy’s mind who would then think that the only recourse is to give up some “concessions” to maintain peace with China.
Tanvi Madan Senior fellow at Brookings Institution wrote “In 1967, as Chinese and Indian troops skirmished in Sikkim, Deputy Prime Minister Morarji Desai was asked on American TV about Beijing’s behaviour. He said, “They are mainly angry… that we are not submitting to their pressures and their bullying… They would like us to fall in line with their strategy… of dominating Asia and, ultimately, the world, as I see it.

For the Chinese, what are the possible motivations for the current standoff?


Saurav Jha (Chief Editor of Delhi Defence Review) argues that the ongoing intrusions are a result of a belief that this is the appropriate time for China to secure its Himalayan flank. Owing to the PLAGF’s (People Liberation Army Ground Force) recent modernization, even as the IA is still in the process of the same, and the near completion of border works on the Tibetan Plateau even as India’s own infrastructure development is still a work in progress, the Chinese would be forgiven for concluding that they hold certain advantages over India. Advantages that may get eroded over the next decade as China’s own internal situation deteriorates and India recovers from the pandemic-induced shock.  So, the Chinese strategy is simply to consolidate its own offensive potential across the Himalayas while denying the same to the Indian side as far as possible.”

He further adds that 

However, the PLAGF’s ‘activism’ ultimately

 stems from China’s perception that a pandemic-

ridden 2020 is the best time for it to buy another

 ‘thirty years of peace’ to quote Mao Zedong’s

 justification for the 1962 war which happened in

 the midst of the disastrous ‘Great Leap

 Forward’.”

China would want to ask part of any de-escalation step to extract a commitment from India to stop work on its border infrastructure work to thus retain its long held “first mover’s” advantage in terms of infrastructure connecting to the LAC. China would like to not give up control in areas where they have intruded into while forcing India to accept the fait accompli. India on the other hand is sticking to the assertion that “status quo ante” of April 2020 has to be returned to end this standoff at the border.

China built a highway through Aksai China in the mid 1950’s (currently known as G219) to develop better access between Tibet and Xinjiang. The goal during the late 1950’s and during the 1962 war was to push Indian forces well to the west of the G219 highway. This was to prevent India from ever interdicting Chinese movement along the G219 highway. During the 1962 war they occupied strategic heights in Ladakh overlooking the G219 highway. Some are speculating that with the increasing ranges and accuracy of artillery and ever-increasing set of surveillance tools, China might be wanting to push India even further to the west.

Future Ramifications of this clash


What are the geopolitical ramifications of this standoff, going forward?



India now faces her biggest strategic and security challenge in many decades. This is way bigger of a crisis than the Uri or Pulwama crisis with Pakistan.

Harsh Pant (director of studies, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi) wrote “Tragedies such as the one India has had to endure this week often lead to a clarity of vision, a vision that was clouded by the misplaced sense of our ability to manage China.”

China would have tried to coerce India to accept Chinese superiority and to not challenge China all along the border. The deaths of soldiers in the process of the skirmish at the border will harden opinion about China among both strategists and the common people. Now the China “doves” in New Delhi are going to be overruled by the China hawks post this incident. Again, Harsh Pant writes New Delhi will now be even freer to make policy choices, both strategic and economic, which will have a strong anti-China orientation. There will be costs for India. But China’s actions have ensured that today India is ready to bear those costs”. Not many have had illusions about the Chinese challenge faced by India since quite a few decades but there was no clear consensus on how to address it as the solutions were varied. This incident should remove some of the ambiguity towards China that various Indian administrations have held over the past few decades of strong engagement coupled with some sort of balancing. As the West, India too has found out that closer economic cooperation has not moderated Chinese behavior but it has rather emboldened Chinese bullying since they developed strong economic interdependence with the rest of the world.

Historically India has been skeptical of taking any steps to push back against China for the fear of upsetting Beijing. This has not resulted in reciprocal concessions by China towards India for this so called “good behavior” by India. This has now probably caused Beijing to assume that putting pressure on India “makes them bend to our will”. India now has no option but to stand firm and resolute at the border as capitulating now will only invite more salami slicing from the emboldened Chinese. India will have to shed the inhibitions of history where discussion on many sensitive topics was avoided for the fear of angering China. India will have to pick and choose the right moments to put pressure back on China on issues like Taiwan, Tibet, and Hong Kong which are an absolute no-go for China.

This clash would mean that Wuhan/Chennai type informal summits meet a quiet burial. After the burst of enthusiasm post Wuhan summit there was hope that this would lead to more progress on thorny issues between the two nations. However post Chennai summit last year which we had covered in Episode 22 on Indian Rising podcast we had mentioned that a lack of tangible outcomes means that the significance of these summits is fast decaying at an exponential rate. The oft used term of “managing the relationship” i.e. how to manage the relations despite the various differences on boundary, trade, etc. would now hold little relevance as China has managed to needle India without taking cognizance of her red lines. The mantra of cooperation with competition with China now sounds hollow post the events of June 15th. Now, there will have to be a shift towards more competition vs cooperation.

How will this standoff impact India’s relations with its like-minded partners?


This clash has likely clinched the participation of Australia in the annual MALABAR naval exercises done between the navies of USA, India and Japan. We had argued in the past that this was a “lever” that New Delhi was reluctant to pull for the time being and that it would be pulled if relations with China nosedived in the future. A military angle to the QUAD is possible but would remain unlikely as the QUAD would be more of a naval concept while India’s primary challenge with China remains a land boundary one. The expectation is that India will grow closer to the USA even more and one could see the 3rd foundational military cooperation agreement BECA being signed in near future after signing of LEMOA in 2016 and COMCASA in 2018. Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for geospatial cooperation will help India in getting information from the USA to keep a close eye on Chinese military (and also Pakistan) to stay better informed of future incursions like the present standoff. India would look to increase defense cooperation with the USA pursuing several other opportunities also except an outright “NATO type military alliance” which is highly unlikely.

What are the lessons to learn from all these standoffs (past and present)?


On the military front looking back in 20/20 hindsight we believe that we missed something crucial from the summer of 2017. This red flag back then was not the well-known Doklam standoff at India-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction. But it was at the stone throwing incident at the now well-known Pangong Tso in August 2017. While everyone’s attention was in Doklam, in a standoff on the banks of the Pangong Tso Chinese and Indian troops pelted stones at each other which resulted in multiple injuries on both sides. This showed the propensity of the Chinese to now engage in some serious physical violence which was not common during the prior standoffs at the LAC. Fast forward to today they seemed to have upped their brutality by now graduating using wired clubs.

What are the military ramifications of this standoff, going forward?


Going forward the danger remains that during the current or future standoffs it could involve shots being fired in anger. This would then result in a 1967 Nathu La type skirmish if not outright full scale war like 1962. The pressure on both sides (given the proliferation of 24x7 news channels and social media) would be enormous to give back in kind and not seem to be backing down. This can easily lead to a cycle of uncontrollable escalation where both sides try to climb the escalation ladder with the conflict becoming much wider.

We think that the events of June 15 2020 can possibly be viewed as a Kongka incident of the modern times. On 21 October 1959 nine CRPF personnel were killed in a clash with the PLA. This event hardened Indian opinion against China and led to a chain of events which led to the 1962 India-China war. Now India of today is very different as many have attested to over the past few weeks and even years. Please note that the point I am trying to make is not that India is going to be routed in a war like 1962The point I am trying to make here that (possibly) we are on an unavoidable path to a bigger military clash between India and China down the road in just a few years.


What kind of a bilateral relationship do we foresee? Are there any historical comparisons?


The geopolitical tug of war ongoing right now between the USA and China is often referred to as being a “Thucydides Trap”. Thucydides Trap broadly refers to series of events when one rising great power threatens to displace another one leading to a conflict. We all might be talking about Thucydides trap between China and USA but it just might be that India building up border infrastructure triggers a proverbial Thucydides trap conflict between India and China (instead of US/China which can still occur in the future by the way).

Now with respect to China, India can hold its ground in a short military conflict and give China a “bloody nose” if China resorts to any military misadventure at the border. However it is of course not at the same level as China economically or militarily. Here we don’t wish to make any grandiose comparisons of India being a great power at the same level as China.

However, looking at this from the Chinese side the construction by India of 61 strategic border roads by end of 2022 would be disconcerting. This diminishing “first mover” advantage (of border infrastructure) would now compel the Chinese in creating a standoff now vs doing this later when their advantage would have eroded. Chinese in spite of being a significant power has shown from time to time to have some baffling insecurities and paranoia about its adversaries/neighbors. So, a rising Indian threat in the anxious minds of the Chinese could prompt her to take steps to “put India in her place” like they feel they did during the 1962 war. This all combined with what Beijing considers a “muscular foreign policy” from the incumbent administration in New Delhi would have forced them (in their minds) to act now before it was too late in the future. We all might be talking about Thucydides trap in relation to it being between China and USA but it just might be that India building up border infrastructure (and also a rising power in other domains) possibly triggers a Thucydides trap conflict between India and China.
Frederick the Great King of Prussia in the 18th century famously said He who defends everything defends nothing.” This is something Indian strategists need to consider since defending everywhere along an extremely long (~3,488 km) and undemarcated LAC is very hard especially in face of rising Chinese belligerence. India has to start developing options of making “probes/thrusts” where the enemy is weak and least expects it. This would be necessary as either during the current standoff or during a future standoff Chinese could simply refuse to withdraw. This would force India with two unappealing options: either accept the new fait accompli or use force to evict the Chinese troops.
COAS (Chief of Army Staff) M. Naravane recently as per a report directed the troops to tighten patrolling of all the 65 points on the LAC. At the LOC with Pakistan, India has troops right at the border itself. With LAC troops remain at some depth from the LAC and then patrol up to the claim lines. A thought will have to be given to occupy some or all the strategic points along the LAC next summer to prevent such Chinese incursions in the future (maybe as early as next summer if possible). This is bound to annoy China so this will have to be a very carefully planned operation where all the counter Chinese moves will have to be “war gamed” for. This could be like Operation Meghdoot in 1984 where India outraced Pakistan to occupy the strategically important Siachen glacier.

Calls for reversing trade imbalance



Global Times in an op-ed said that “India should curb ‘boycott China’ voices after border clash. Blindly associating border issues with investments and trade is illogical. Both sides need to cherish precious development opportunities amid #COVID19 uncertainty.”

Government has initiated steps to bar Chinese companies from using equipment made by Chinese vendors Huawei and ZTE going forward.

Given Chinese retaliation over the past few years against whole host countries: South Korea, Australia, Norway etc. one can expect that any strong steps to curb or even possibly ban Chinese imports is going to trigger a backlash against Indian companies and products in China. China has never been shy to display its displeasure with even some of its biggest trading partners and India is sure to be no exception here.

The growing trade deficit also remains one of biggest challenges in the relationship. India has lobbied vigorously for greater access for Indian goods in Chinese markets with very little success. All this while Chinese imports have surged to India ballooning the deficit to record levels. The Modi government for all its success in speeding up border infrastructure has not been able to tackle this problem of burgeoning trade deficits. For e.g. India’s trade deficit with China which stood at $31B in 2013 rose over 80+% to $56.77B in 2019. The good news that after topping off at $58B in 2018 it has slightly declined to $56.77B last year.


Epilogue:


India would seriously need to introspect as it has reached a now-or-never situation to challenge China with respect to border skirmishes both in short and long terms. The only way this will be possible is by India growing at a quicker pace consistently over the next few decades. And for this the participation of the people needs to be active and they need to realize that you cannot defeat China within a short duration but need to play a longer game of strengthening yourself and weakening the opposition. People also need to realize that once you grow bigger enough, you can challenge the adversary and eventually defeat it.

We have been saying for some time that India’s two primary challenges are 1) China & 2) Pakistan.

Pakistan does occupy a disproportionate amount 

of imagination in the minds of Indian citizens and 

also on some of the night time 9pm news 

programs. But the larger strategic challenge has

 always been China all along which has

 unfortunately worsened over the past few

 decades. For the comparison in the challenges

 that both of India’s adversaries: Pakistan and

 China pose we would like to hark back to

 something we said on the podcast around the end 

of 2018.  Pakistan is like the annoying rash that

 suddenly flares up from time to time. But it is

 manageable and can be kept in control most of

 the time. This rash might bother you a lot of times

 but it is not going to kill you. China on the other

 hand is like the slow-moving cancer that will

 stealthily spread throughout your body and

 slowly eat you from inside making you weak. By

 the time you react to it could possibly be too late

 and if you don’t take preventive measures early on

 it is sure to kill you in the end unlike that

 annoying rash.

Even though there have been several rounds of talks for de-escalation between both sides, Chinese have been ramping up their deployment on their side of the border. This means that the standoff will last a very long time most likely longer than the 73-day Doklam standoff in 2017. This standoff could last well into the late summer/early fall as de-escalation from such a huge military buildup will take time especially when trust factor is low. This standoff could possibly follow the template of the 1986-87 Sumdorong Chu standoff (in Arunachal Pradesh) which lasted approximately for a whole year. However, one has to note that the China of 1987 under Deng Xiaoping was more of a “bide your time and hide your strength” which is not the case today under Xi Jinping which is looking to flex its muscles. Xi Jinping will not want to be seen blinking first in this standoff with India where India is standing firm at the border right now. If China is perceived (internally within CCP) to be backing down, then it will provide more ammunition to Xi’s critics who are already not happy with his handling of the pandemic crisis.


Note: This was originally discussed on Episode 27 of the India Rising podcast (@indiarisingmk) hosted by Mohal Joshi (@MohalJoshi) & Kishor Narayan (@veggiediplomat). (Below are links to the episode)
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REFERENCES:


Thursday, August 20, 2020

Has the Wind Changed? PLA Hawks General DAI Xu and General QIAO Liang Release Odd Articles

SOURCE:
https://gnews.org/257994/?s=09






Has the Wind Changed? PLA Hawks General DAI Xu and General QIAO Liang Release Odd Articles





Miles’ comments on this article: In this article, QIAO Liang, a co-author of Unrestricted Warfare, expresses his insights on the essence of Sino-US Relations for the past decade. He has done so in the mildest possible tones to ensure his safety and not run the risk of being arrested and murdered.
Essentially, we know that as one of the authors of Unrestricted Warfare and a general in the PLA, QIAO Liang could only express himself in a vague manner and give an understated statement from his point of view.
In fact, he has made it clear that the core essence of the Sino-US Relationship, is that the CCP has been challenging America across the board. The CCP has committed theft, implemented the 3-F plan of weakening America to the point where it collapses and dies, has waged biological warfare, intends to invade Taiwan, to completely annex Hong Kong and merge it into the Chinese mainland. The CCP has been challenging the US economically, allying with African and Middle Eastern countries, rapidly threatening the US geopolitically. For the past decade, the CCP challenged the US across the board in economics, technology, and intellectual property.
He is familiar with strategy, reality, technology, economics, military, and geopolitics. As a senior military officer, he understands Sino-US Relations intimately. Yet, the CCP is unable to win the war against America. Nobody can dispute the fact that the CCP is collapsing and perishing.
Introduction
DAI Xu and QIAO Liang, two hawkish Chinese generals have both recently published articles on the Sino-US conflict, both agreeing on the same key opinion: based on the current balance of power, China is by no means a match for the US. Their showing of the white feather is somewhat a reflection of the thinking at the decision-making level. Under the current international situation, the crazy wolf warrior mentality will merely bring China endless disasters. The only way out for China is peace, not war…
2020, Four Unexpected Things
and Ten New Understandings About The United States


DAI Xu, Professor, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University of PLA China
   
                                         Author: DAI Xu
2020 has been a tough year in terms of the Sino-US relations, and this tough situation is likely to continue for several years, or even longer, since there’s no solution to this issue yet. With regard to Sino-US relations, the Chinese people have come to some findings that they didn’t expect before:   
                      
First: The US has such a big hatred for China
Trump does not hold any good impressions about China, describing China as a “trade terrorist”, a “global economic aggressor”, a “liar” and a “thief”, and even a “rule breaker”. This is something the Chinese people didn’t expect at all. The US government has activated all of its propaganda machines to demonize China to the greatest extend worldwide, turning China into an “unforgivable” “trade hooligan” and pushing the propaganda of “China Threat Theory” to new heights.
Second: The US government is very ruthless and pushy, allowing little time for negotiations, which is beyond the expectations of most Chinese officials and experts.
Traditionally, China and The US has had a very close trade relationship that was said to be almost inseparable. It was considered highly unlikely that The US would be so tough, imposing stacked tariff increases of 30 billion, 50 billion and then 200 billion. This has never happened in the history of the US or in world trade. Why on earth would they do this? Although the Trump administration has “good reasons”, the Chinese people still don’t understand it, because this trade model has been around for more than a decade and is not a short-term operation, unless the Americans are extremely angry and have gone “crazy”.
Third: Not a single country has stood out expressing sympathy and support for China.
Many countries are opposed to the US government’s trade policy, but no country has come forward to establish a unified anti-US alliance together with the biggest victim, China. China has provided assistance to so many countries, benefiting them in so many ways, but at this critical moment, none of them has taken any unified action with China.
Fourth: A united domestic front has actually formed in the United States.
Although the Republicans and Democrats disagree on increasing taxes globally, they hold bipartisan views on the trade war with China. It turns out that no one in the US congress speaks out on behalf of China; the two parties of the US are surprisingly unanimous on a major trade policy, which really hurts all Chinese people.
In response to the above four unexpected aspects, China needs to re-evaluate our understanding of the US. If we don’t adjust our understanding of the US from an ideological perspective, we will inevitably deviate from our strategy and tactics, and may even make serious mistakes.。
The first understanding: Don’t think of Imperial America as a “paper tiger”. It‘s a “real tiger”, that kills people.
Don’t think of American politicians as gentlemen. They are not philanthropists. They are extremely loyal to their country and voters. They are not easily bought. They are only loyal to their voters. They will do everything to satisfy their voters.
The second understanding: Don’t count on it that Imperial America will always make mistakes. Imperial America has a perfect correction mechanism, making it impossible to implement “political correctness”“ forever.
All presidents have their own governing ideas and methods, but their principles remain the same. One of the significant characteristics of Imperial America is that once a national strategy goes wrong, a new government will make a 180-degree change to it without hesitation, changing their policies faster than flipping a page in a book.
The third understanding: Imperial America does not attach great importance to ideology and values. They only value economic and trade interests.
The key goal of American Imperialism is foreign trade. So don’t take too much advantage of the Americans, especially do not pursue trade surplus blindly. When you’re making millions, make sure to be at their service, share the profits, and don’t pocket it all alone!
The fourth understanding: Don’t knock on their door and make a loud announcement that “I shall surpass you, replace you and be the world’s number one”.
Even if you are ambitious and capable of doing so, you should disguise it and keep a low profile. The American Imperialists are particularly worried about themselves being replaced and the Japanese have a better understanding of this. That’s why Japan is low-key, quietly making a fortune.
The fifth understanding: Imperial America doesn’t care if it is offending others, as it has many allies, but it will never sacrifice its own interests to please allies.
Therefore, do not flatter the American Imperialists or its allies. Its allies only have close bonds with the American Imperialists. They will never be truly friendly to you; business is business, especially do not play the buddy-buddy card.
The sixth understanding: We need to admit that the Imperial America is the world’s “number one”, although it’s hard to accept it emotionally. But feelings can’t replace facts.
Imperial America controls far more resources than we do. We can “overtake on a corner”, but it’s temporary. We still need to catch up on a “straight road”. Imperial America controls high technology. We are only in digestion and absorption of their technology. Do not tout “digestion and absorption” as “innovation”. It won’t fudge the American Imperialists, but you will mislead yourselves.
The seventh understanding: Do not mention “sharing information” to Imperial America.
Imperial America pays special attention to protecting Intellectual Property. If you always show off the outcome from “sharing technologies”, they will consider you as “thieves”. Do not talk to them about the “Internet economy” either. It’ll be like teaching your grandmother to suck eggs. The internet you’re using was invented by Imperial America. You’re building a house on someone else’s foundation, so don’t claim the ownership of the property. One won’t die being low-key, but bragging scares people.
The eighth understanding: Imperial America is a master in playing strategic games. Do not let them do this to you.
Once Imperial America considers you as their “enemy”, you’re in big trouble. They “will never stop until their goal is reached”. As with their fight against terrorism, once they decide that you are a threat, they will continue to fight against you using all their resources, with generations of presidents working on the same national strategy.
The ninth understanding: Don’t count on American elections to change their national strategy.
The core strategy of Imperial America never changes. “Make America Great Again” isn’t just Trump’s personal idea. Rather, it reflects America’s national ideology. Imperial America’s electoral system allows adjustments to the strategy, but their national interests decide that they are in seek of hegemony. Therefore, you should never expect the US to back down or withdraw from the international stage. Don’t be fooled by Trump’s “quitting the group”.
The tenth understanding: Don’t be so naive as to think you’re in battle only with Imperial America itself.
All actions taken by the American Imperialists have a “butterfly effect”. Since Imperial America has an enormous strategic alliance, they represent a universal value. As long as they initiate an action, other forces in the world will follow suit. Some countries may be reluctant or unwilling, but eventually, they will jump on the bandwagon. Remember: the 30 billion in tariffs imposed on you will bring an effect of 60 billion, 90 billion, or more. This is where Imperial America is truly powerful.  We must be rational instead of angry, and fight wisely.    


The Taiwan Issue is Fundamentally a Sino-US Issue
Maj. Gen. QIAO Liang, considered by the public as a representative of the hawks of the People’s Liberation Army, co-authored the book Unrestricted Warfare with retired Air Force Senior Colonel WANG Xiangsui, now a professor of Beihang University.
Major General QIAO Liang, a Chinese military commentator and a professor at PLA National Defense University, believes that China shouldn’t think of the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to take back Taiwan by force. In the current situation, the use of force will be too costly, and it is not a top priority either. The focus should be on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
QIAO Liang told the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong in an interview yesterday (4th) that China’s ultimate goal isn’t the cross-strait reunification, but rather the rejuvenation of the nation, enabling the 1.4 billion Chinese people to live a prosperous life.
QIAO Liang didn’t think that taking back Taiwan would lead to the rejuvenation of the nation, so Beijing shouldn’t make it a priority. If Beijing wanted to take back Taiwan by force, it would need to use all its resources and forces. QIAO Liang said, “You should not put all eggs in one basket. The risk is too high.”
On the same day, QIAO Liang also posted on WeChat that from the perspective of online public opinion, many Chinese people are still used to or prefer to consider or talk about the issue in a general or broad fashion. He said, “This impulsive way of decision making based on determination or confidence (more of a spur-of-the-moment) without regard for self or external constraints is misconstrued as patriotism, which is actually harmful to the country.”
QIAO Liang wrote, “It is true that the United States is busy dealing with the pandemic and its military force has been reduced. It does seem that this opened a temporary window of opportunity for us to resolve the Taiwan issue by force, but unless the United States doesn’t recover from the subsequent pandemic situation, just grasping a tactical window is not enough to solve the strategic dilemma we’re to face in the future.”
QIAO Liang believes that according to US military concepts, once a war in the Taiwan Strait breaks out, the US military isn’t likely to engage in war against China directly, but they will form an alliance with Western countries to impose blockades and sanctions on China, particularly using its sea and air superiority to cut off China’s maritime lifeline, blocking China from importing resources needed for the manufacturing industry or exporting commodities. At the same time, they will cut off China’s capital chain through the two major financial centers of New York and London. He has also mentioned that the Chinese economy and the RMB are not free from the constrains of the US dollar yet.
China is currently in the midst of “millennium rejuvenation with precious opportunities, about to become strong and about to succeed”, and thus, “since it is currently facing the millennium rejuvenation and about to succeed, is taking back Taiwan a top priority for now?”
QIAO Liang said, “The Taiwan Issue, no matter how emphasized by us as China’s internal affairs, is still essentially a Sino-US issue.” He thinks that the Taiwan Issue won’t be resolved completely before China and the United States arm-wrestle it out.
QIAO Liang reminded us that once war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, all funds would be evacuated, and all enterprises would be closed. He said, “How much investment for economic stimulus and human resources for social management will an island need from us, where all people lose their jobs? …… How high will the price be and what will it cost us? Wouldn’t the price and the cost hamper or even put an end to the great rejuvenation?
Translated by VOG’s WenFan, Tina, and BigMama




Wednesday, August 19, 2020

INDIA’S PANGONG PICKLE: NEW DELHI’S OPTIONS AFTER ITS CLASH WITH CHINA



COMMENTARY

INDIA’S PANGONG PICKLE: NEW DELHI’S OPTIONS AFTER ITS CLASH WITH CHINA





Tuesday, August 18, 2020



In early May, “fist fights and stone-pelting” broke out between Chinese and Indian troops at two separate sites along their disputed border. India and China are no strangers to border incidents ­— even prolonged standoffs — so the skirmishes were newsworthy but not especially noteworthy.
By the end of the month, Indian and Chinese media had focused attention on several points along the Indian territory of Ladakh in the western sector of the disputed border, known as the Line of Actual Control. In this sector, that official name for the boundary is a misnomer: There is no agreement on where any “line” is, nor is there a clear mutual delineation of the territory under “actual control” of either party. By the end of the month, this episode involved a level of military activity that was at least comparable to a multi-month standoff at Doklam near the Bhutan-India-China trijunction in 2017. Despite the regularity of Sino-Indian border standoffs, there had not been a fatality or shot fired on the border since 1975. This was in part because India and China agreed to confidence-building measures in 19931996, and 2013 in an effort to prevent the use of force — especially deadly force — in the border dispute.
That record of nonfatal confrontation collapsed on June 15 when simmering tensions boiled over and Indian and Chinese forces engaged in a brutal brawl in the Galwan Valley. Involving stones and nail-studded clubs but no firearms, this clash claimed the lives of at least 20 Indian soldiers — including a commanding officer — and an unknown number of People’s Liberation Army (PLA) forces. It was the bloodiest confrontation on the Sino-Indian frontier in over half a century.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi now faces a daunting strategic predicament. Having already seized several tactically important positions, China is not going to just pack up and go home. Yet India’s military options to compel a Chinese retreat are poor, forcing Modi to weigh the dangers of escalation against the certainty of strategic humiliation if India does nothing to restore the status quo. Options between full-scale war and capitulation — such as limited attacks to expel Chinese forces or indirect military, diplomatic, and economic efforts to coerce withdrawal — carry their own substantial risks, including the very real possibility that they will not work. These already-difficult calculations take place in the context of a COVID-19 outbreak in India that is slowly churning through some of the country’s largest cities while devastating its economy. Modi’s position is unenviable as he considers his responses. His options range from bad, to worse, to truly ugly.
China’s Moves On the Border
India’s efforts at “quiet diplomacy,” its standard playbook during border standoffs with China, have thus far failed. While local military commanders reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to disengage on June 6, there was apparently still disagreement over whether China would have to abandon a position near what India calls Patrol Point 14, at a bend in the Galwan River from which China can observe Indian military movements.
While Indian troops were trying to remove the newly established Chinese position, tempers finally exploded on June 15, and forces that had been arrayed against each other for weeks at high altitude and under harsh conditions finally clashed. Although military disengagement talks continue, they appear stalled, with China apparently slow-rolling by continuing to blame India for the clash and using talks to schedule further talks, all the while gaining time to consolidate its defenses at a few tactically important positions.
Why is China risking a conflict with its nuclear-armed neighbor amidst a global pandemic? China has been remarkably opaque, so there are more hypotheses than answers. As Yun Sun and M. Taylor Fravel have observed, the pandemic may have heightened Chinese concerns about domestic political legitimacy and therefore sovereignty — not just with respect to India but elsewhere as well, such as Hong Kong. These concerns may have magnified Chinese leaders’ preexisting desire to arrest Indian road- and bridge-building on the frontier that might weaken China’s ability to defend disputed terrain. Beijing may additionally fear that New Delhi’s August 2019 decision to change the constitutional status of Kashmir and Ladakh was a precursor to additional Indian moves along the border, notably over the disputed region of Aksai Chin, that need to be deterred. China’s limited messaging — and its habit of lying — makes it hard to distinguish between whether China is motivated by fear of future Indian nibbling at Aksai Chin, a key plateau linking Tibet to the rest of China, or by opportunism, seeing a chance to gain territory on the cheap from an India distracted by economic and public health challenges. Or, perhaps, Beijing is simply trying to teach New Delhi a lesson that in Asia’s pecking order, China is number one.
What we do know is that the scope and swath of China’s recent incursions seems different this time. The Chinese military pressed not at one point as in the past, but at several tactically important pressure points with thousands of forces across hundreds of kilometers: at Pangong Lake, Hot Springs, Galwan Valley, and Depsang Plains. There are concerning reports that China may be opening, or preparing to open, fronts in Arunachal Pradesh in the eastern sector of the disputed border. The buildup seems orchestrated by senior PLA leaders, rather than the product of local commander freelancing, and in several places Indian officials believe China has pushed forces beyond points it previously claimed. Whether this is into “Indian territory” or not is hotly debated, but there is no doubt China is attempting to change the status quo through a series of faits accomplis. Shallow incursions in the Galwan Valley and on the Depsang Plains give China significant vantage points over — and the potential to cut off — India’s recently constructed all-weather motorway, the Darbuk-Shyok-Daulet Beg Oldi Road, along the Line of Actual Control, as well as critical feeder roads to the line itself. Elsewhere, China may be less concerned about interdicting Indian roads, and more interested in securing a buffer to protect National Highway 219, the key artery connecting Tibet with the rest of China. If China is worried about India unilaterally fortifying or settling the boundary, or paranoid about Indian Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent statements about reclaiming Aksai Chin, taking these points may help prevent that. Regardless, it is clear that the Chinese military came to play, and does not intend to go away quickly or easily.
India’s Options Going Forward: From Bad to Worse to Ugly
India was surprised by the scale of China’s incursions and was initially caught unprepared. It now faces the difficult challenge of trying to restore the status quo. Unfortunately, the best time to resist a fait accompli is before it is fully completed. As research by Dan Altman shows, if a fait accompli is not quickly resisted or reversed, it becomes more difficult to do so over time as the aggressor consolidates and fortifies its position, establishing a new normal. Of 59 land grabs around the world where the aggressor held territory at the end of a militarized international dispute, Altman finds 47 where the aggressor held that territory uninterrupted for the next 10 years. Those are enviable odds for China’s ability to retain its new real estate in the Himalayas.
With the PLA firmly ensconced at points further along Pangong Lake, Galwan Valley, and Depsang, and with time on China’s side, what are India’s options? First, it needs to stop the bleeding. The Indian Army has to deter Chinese forces from acquiring more territory, both at the current incursion points and at other potential points of vulnerability. This means adopting a robust defensive posture that denies any deeper incursions at the existing friction points. New Delhi should also identify any additional vulnerable points along its frontier with China, focus intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets on detecting potential Chinese threats to those points, and deploy forces to deny the PLA additional gains elsewhere. Simply put, India cannot afford additional fronts or any deeper penetration where it has already suffered losses.
This will be easier said than done. China has not seized positions willy nilly: In many locations it holds positions precisely because they are valuable and easier to defend than alternative claim lines. For India, stopping additional transgressions thus risks advertent escalation if it must meet Chinese penetrations head-on. There is also the growing risk of inadvertent escalation if tempers flare again — altitude and harsh conditions stress the short fuse forces may have in this area — or if there is an accident, for example involving helicopters operating in bad weather and difficult terrain, or between the speedboats that both countries deploy on Pangong Lake. Aidan Milliff correctly points out that the mountainous, high-altitude terrain in eastern Ladakh may inhibit fears of a large-scale war, but that same terrain creates “multiple windows of opportunity at the tactical level” that might provoke clashes, many of which could prove deadly. Although India’s military mobilization is now substantial, with both ground and air forces shifted to the theater and postured to deter further Chinese penetration, China has also amassed substantial forces in depth along with artillery and air power. Moreover, India has eliminated previous restrictions on the use of firearms at the border and granted “complete freedom of action” to military commanders to respond to “extraordinary situations” after the June 15 clash, and it should be assumed that China has done the same. All the ingredients for further loss of life persist, then, even if India’s sole goal is to stop further Chinese incursions.
If India is successful in preventing additional losses, in the medium to long term how can it attempt to restore the pre-May status quo? The problem with faits accomplis is that the defender’s options to reverse them once completed range from bad to worse to downright ugly. There are really only three options, all of which are difficult to achieve in practice.
The first option is to try to expel Chinese forces directly. This means amassing enough military power to successfully execute limited offensives at the points China now occupies and drive PLA forces back, in order to reestablish control of the lost territory or at least deny Chinese control thereof. This is a substantial amount of terrain stretching approximately 200 kilometers, from the Depsang Plains in the north past the Galwan Valley incursion, and beyond the Hot Springs transgression to Pangong Lake further south, where China has apparently seized several additional kilometers of lakefront property.
There are two problems with the direct expulsion option. First, time is on China’s side. The PLA is consolidating its new positions, making it more difficult for India to undertake limited coordinated offensives at any one point, let alone all of them. Second, the mountainous terrain likely benefits the defender — in this case Chinese troops who now occupy large portions of the disputed territory — because amassing enough forces and firepower to dislodge a fortified position with limited offensives may be nearly impossible now without significant escalation. India might have to open up a new front to put pressure on Chinese lines at more tactically vulnerable points or use artillery or airpower — or both — on or behind the Line of Actual Control for the first time in decades, inviting unpredictable responses from China.
The second option available to India is to indirectly expel Chinese forces by generating leverage at other points or in other domains, and trade for withdrawal. New Delhi could symmetrically seize equivalent, relatively undefended, territory on the “Chinese side” of the border and trade it in a negotiation, or punish China elsewhere through other means. Such asymmetric punishment might include actions in another theater (e.g., the South China Sea), economic pressure, or diplomatic moves that signal India’s increasing willingness to align with a broader coalition to contain an aggressive China.
Here, India’s options are again limited and unattractive. There are certainly places along the disputed border where India possesses local advantages, such as it showed in Chumar in 2014, and could theoretically seize land to trade away to restore the status quo ante. Unfortunately, India’s prospects for doing so now without the element of surprise are limited, as China will have likely anticipated such retaliation and improved its defenses in those areas, neutralizing many of India’s advantages. In the maritime domain, India’s navy certainly matches well with the PLA Navy in the Indian Ocean region, but its punitive options beyond that (e.g., in the South China Sea or western Pacific) are extremely limited. Furthermore, the track record of naval pressure achieving results on land is not inspiring and at best, as Julian Corbett observed long ago, “its effects must always be slow.”
India’s non-military options are also realistically limited. Economically, the two countries’ trade balance favors China, and India is dependent on China for key inputs in major sectors — such as active ingredients in pharmaceuticals or microchips in electronics — that are not easy to replace quickly. Even before the border crisis, India was seeking to curtail Chinese direct investment, which is fairly modest in scale though arguably disproportionately influential in certain areas such as India’s startup sector. India can also ban specific Chinese consumer goods and services, as it did on June 29 when it blocked nearly 60 mobile applications including TikTok, denying Chinese companies access to Indian users and data. However, in many areas these moves will prove more irksome or symbolic — and unenforceable — than coercive. Although India may attempt to reduce economic activity with China in the long term, its ability to do so in a timeframe that compels withdrawal from the heights of eastern Ladakh is limited. China is likely betting that any economic punishment will hurt India more than it hurts China, the world’s second-largest economy and one on which India depends for much of its vertical supply chain.
Diplomatically, India may seek to strengthen its alignment with the United States and/or the other members of the “Quad” of democratic powers in Asia, Australia and Japan. But, such moves were already afoot before the latest crisis, and any further alignment with the West faces speedbumps — such as India’s heavy dependence on Russian frontline military equipment — that will not suddenly disappear overnight. Most diplomatic moves are not likely to be painful enough to China to incentivize relinquishing valuable territory it now holds, and may merely reinforce Chinese hawks’ belief that India was always anti-China and merited preventive action as a result.
The third option is perhaps the ugliest, strategically and politically: India may have no choice but to accept China’s faits accomplis and anesthetize the domestic fallout by exploiting the ambiguity around the definition and non-delineation of the Line of Actual Control, claiming that it is not Indian territory, which of course depends on the definitions of “Indian,” “territory,” and frankly, “is.” There are hints that the Indian government is preparing itself and the domestic public to do just this, as Modi himself stated that no Chinese forces were on “Indian territory” after an all-party meeting on June 19. Subsequent clarifications only served to generate confusion. But faced with few military, diplomatic, or economic options to reverse Beijing’s faits accomplis, New Delhi may have no choice but to quietly accept them. The risk, of course, is that this approach may only further embolden China to be more aggressive toward India or seize additional territory. Even if ceding these particular points to China does not amount to a tactical loss for India on the ground, the broader impact of doing so could be quite costly.
In order to prevent future land grabs, India might have to mobilize a much larger force along the 2,000-plus mile border. Already, retired senior officers are talking of the need to turn the Line of Actual Control into something akin to the heavily militarized and fenced Line of Control that divides Indian- from Pakistani-administered Kashmir. Attempting something this ambitious would be challenging during good times, and virtually impossible in the midst of a pandemic forecast to cause a 4.5 percent contraction in the Indian economy this year — the worst economic crisis India has faced in a generation. A New Delhi distracted by border disputes with China cannot focus on the broader strategic competition with Beijing, gives Pakistan some breathing room, and weakens itself by diverting precious resources to defending inhospitable terrain in the hinterland. Quiet acceptance of the accumulated Chinese revisions of the territorial status quo could amount to one of India’s greatest geopolitical and strategic setbacks in decades.
Looking Ahead
India finds itself in a very difficult position vis-à-vis China on their disputed border. At some point, India will have to determine how it could have allowed China to surprise it and execute faits accomplis in multiple places, and what the strategic and operational warning signs were that it missed or failed to act upon. But, at the moment, its immediate challenge is to stop the bleeding, which in and of itself has all the ingredients for a tense and potentially long and escalatory standoff between Asia’s two nuclear-armed giants. Even if it can halt additional gains by the Chinese military, New Delhi may find it difficult to restore the status quo, since its options range from bad to worse to ugly. This is precisely why faits accomplis are so attractive to states, and why they are so important to reverse quickly, before they are completed and consolidated. In international politics, possession is not just nine-tenths of the law, it is the law.

Christopher Clary is an assistant professor of political science at the University at Albany, State University of New York and a nonresident fellow with the Stimson Center’s South Asia Program. Vipin Narang is an associate professor of political science and member of the Security Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a nonresident scholar in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.