SOURCE:
https://gnews.org/257994/?s=09
DAI Xu, Professor, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University of PLA China
https://gnews.org/257994/?s=09
Has the Wind Changed? PLA Hawks General DAI Xu and General QIAO Liang Release Odd Articles
Miles’ comments on this article: In this article, QIAO Liang, a co-author of Unrestricted Warfare, expresses his insights on the essence of Sino-US Relations for the past decade. He has done so in the mildest possible tones to ensure his safety and not run the risk of being arrested and murdered.
Essentially, we know that as one of the authors of Unrestricted Warfare and a general in the PLA, QIAO Liang could only express himself in a vague manner and give an understated statement from his point of view.
In fact, he has made it clear that the core essence of the Sino-US Relationship, is that the CCP has been challenging America across the board. The CCP has committed theft, implemented the 3-F plan of weakening America to the point where it collapses and dies, has waged biological warfare, intends to invade Taiwan, to completely annex Hong Kong and merge it into the Chinese mainland. The CCP has been challenging the US economically, allying with African and Middle Eastern countries, rapidly threatening the US geopolitically. For the past decade, the CCP challenged the US across the board in economics, technology, and intellectual property.
He is familiar with strategy, reality, technology, economics, military, and geopolitics. As a senior military officer, he understands Sino-US Relations intimately. Yet, the CCP is unable to win the war against America. Nobody can dispute the fact that the CCP is collapsing and perishing.
Introduction
DAI Xu and QIAO Liang, two hawkish Chinese generals have both recently published articles on the Sino-US conflict, both agreeing on the same key opinion: based on the current balance of power, China is by no means a match for the US. Their showing of the white feather is somewhat a reflection of the thinking at the decision-making level. Under the current international situation, the crazy wolf warrior mentality will merely bring China endless disasters. The only way out for China is peace, not war…
2020, Four Unexpected Things
and Ten New Understandings About The United States
and Ten New Understandings About The United States
DAI Xu, Professor, Institute of Strategic Studies, National Defense University of PLA China
Author: DAI Xu
2020 has been a tough year in terms of the Sino-US relations, and this tough situation is likely to continue for several years, or even longer, since there’s no solution to this issue yet. With regard to Sino-US relations, the Chinese people have come to some findings that they didn’t expect before:
First: The US has such a big hatred for China
Trump does not hold any good impressions about China, describing China as a “trade terrorist”, a “global economic aggressor”, a “liar” and a “thief”, and even a “rule breaker”. This is something the Chinese people didn’t expect at all. The US government has activated all of its propaganda machines to demonize China to the greatest extend worldwide, turning China into an “unforgivable” “trade hooligan” and pushing the propaganda of “China Threat Theory” to new heights.
Second: The US government is very ruthless and pushy, allowing little time for negotiations, which is beyond the expectations of most Chinese officials and experts.
Traditionally, China and The US has had a very close trade relationship that was said to be almost inseparable. It was considered highly unlikely that The US would be so tough, imposing stacked tariff increases of 30 billion, 50 billion and then 200 billion. This has never happened in the history of the US or in world trade. Why on earth would they do this? Although the Trump administration has “good reasons”, the Chinese people still don’t understand it, because this trade model has been around for more than a decade and is not a short-term operation, unless the Americans are extremely angry and have gone “crazy”.
Third: Not a single country has stood out expressing sympathy and support for China.
Many countries are opposed to the US government’s trade policy, but no country has come forward to establish a unified anti-US alliance together with the biggest victim, China. China has provided assistance to so many countries, benefiting them in so many ways, but at this critical moment, none of them has taken any unified action with China.
Fourth: A united domestic front has actually formed in the United States.
Although the Republicans and Democrats disagree on increasing taxes globally, they hold bipartisan views on the trade war with China. It turns out that no one in the US congress speaks out on behalf of China; the two parties of the US are surprisingly unanimous on a major trade policy, which really hurts all Chinese people.
In response to the above four unexpected aspects, China needs to re-evaluate our understanding of the US. If we don’t adjust our understanding of the US from an ideological perspective, we will inevitably deviate from our strategy and tactics, and may even make serious mistakes.。
The first understanding: Don’t think of Imperial America as a “paper tiger”. It‘s a “real tiger”, that kills people.
Don’t think of American politicians as gentlemen. They are not philanthropists. They are extremely loyal to their country and voters. They are not easily bought. They are only loyal to their voters. They will do everything to satisfy their voters.
The second understanding: Don’t count on it that Imperial America will always make mistakes. Imperial America has a perfect correction mechanism, making it impossible to implement “political correctness”“ forever.
All presidents have their own governing ideas and methods, but their principles remain the same. One of the significant characteristics of Imperial America is that once a national strategy goes wrong, a new government will make a 180-degree change to it without hesitation, changing their policies faster than flipping a page in a book.
The third understanding: Imperial America does not attach great importance to ideology and values. They only value economic and trade interests.
The key goal of American Imperialism is foreign trade. So don’t take too much advantage of the Americans, especially do not pursue trade surplus blindly. When you’re making millions, make sure to be at their service, share the profits, and don’t pocket it all alone!
The fourth understanding: Don’t knock on their door and make a loud announcement that “I shall surpass you, replace you and be the world’s number one”.
Even if you are ambitious and capable of doing so, you should disguise it and keep a low profile. The American Imperialists are particularly worried about themselves being replaced and the Japanese have a better understanding of this. That’s why Japan is low-key, quietly making a fortune.
The fifth understanding: Imperial America doesn’t care if it is offending others, as it has many allies, but it will never sacrifice its own interests to please allies.
Therefore, do not flatter the American Imperialists or its allies. Its allies only have close bonds with the American Imperialists. They will never be truly friendly to you; business is business, especially do not play the buddy-buddy card.
The sixth understanding: We need to admit that the Imperial America is the world’s “number one”, although it’s hard to accept it emotionally. But feelings can’t replace facts.
Imperial America controls far more resources than we do. We can “overtake on a corner”, but it’s temporary. We still need to catch up on a “straight road”. Imperial America controls high technology. We are only in digestion and absorption of their technology. Do not tout “digestion and absorption” as “innovation”. It won’t fudge the American Imperialists, but you will mislead yourselves.
The seventh understanding: Do not mention “sharing information” to Imperial America.
Imperial America pays special attention to protecting Intellectual Property. If you always show off the outcome from “sharing technologies”, they will consider you as “thieves”. Do not talk to them about the “Internet economy” either. It’ll be like teaching your grandmother to suck eggs. The internet you’re using was invented by Imperial America. You’re building a house on someone else’s foundation, so don’t claim the ownership of the property. One won’t die being low-key, but bragging scares people.
The eighth understanding: Imperial America is a master in playing strategic games. Do not let them do this to you.
Once Imperial America considers you as their “enemy”, you’re in big trouble. They “will never stop until their goal is reached”. As with their fight against terrorism, once they decide that you are a threat, they will continue to fight against you using all their resources, with generations of presidents working on the same national strategy.
The ninth understanding: Don’t count on American elections to change their national strategy.
The core strategy of Imperial America never changes. “Make America Great Again” isn’t just Trump’s personal idea. Rather, it reflects America’s national ideology. Imperial America’s electoral system allows adjustments to the strategy, but their national interests decide that they are in seek of hegemony. Therefore, you should never expect the US to back down or withdraw from the international stage. Don’t be fooled by Trump’s “quitting the group”.
The tenth understanding: Don’t be so naive as to think you’re in battle only with Imperial America itself.
All actions taken by the American Imperialists have a “butterfly effect”. Since Imperial America has an enormous strategic alliance, they represent a universal value. As long as they initiate an action, other forces in the world will follow suit. Some countries may be reluctant or unwilling, but eventually, they will jump on the bandwagon. Remember: the 30 billion in tariffs imposed on you will bring an effect of 60 billion, 90 billion, or more. This is where Imperial America is truly powerful. We must be rational instead of angry, and fight wisely.
The Taiwan Issue is Fundamentally a Sino-US Issue
Maj. Gen. QIAO Liang, considered by the public as a representative of the hawks of the People’s Liberation Army, co-authored the book Unrestricted Warfare with retired Air Force Senior Colonel WANG Xiangsui, now a professor of Beihang University.
Major General QIAO Liang, a Chinese military commentator and a professor at PLA National Defense University, believes that China shouldn’t think of the coronavirus pandemic as an opportunity to take back Taiwan by force. In the current situation, the use of force will be too costly, and it is not a top priority either. The focus should be on the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
QIAO Liang told the South China Morning Post in Hong Kong in an interview yesterday (4th) that China’s ultimate goal isn’t the cross-strait reunification, but rather the rejuvenation of the nation, enabling the 1.4 billion Chinese people to live a prosperous life.
QIAO Liang didn’t think that taking back Taiwan would lead to the rejuvenation of the nation, so Beijing shouldn’t make it a priority. If Beijing wanted to take back Taiwan by force, it would need to use all its resources and forces. QIAO Liang said, “You should not put all eggs in one basket. The risk is too high.”
On the same day, QIAO Liang also posted on WeChat that from the perspective of online public opinion, many Chinese people are still used to or prefer to consider or talk about the issue in a general or broad fashion. He said, “This impulsive way of decision making based on determination or confidence (more of a spur-of-the-moment) without regard for self or external constraints is misconstrued as patriotism, which is actually harmful to the country.”
QIAO Liang wrote, “It is true that the United States is busy dealing with the pandemic and its military force has been reduced. It does seem that this opened a temporary window of opportunity for us to resolve the Taiwan issue by force, but unless the United States doesn’t recover from the subsequent pandemic situation, just grasping a tactical window is not enough to solve the strategic dilemma we’re to face in the future.”
QIAO Liang believes that according to US military concepts, once a war in the Taiwan Strait breaks out, the US military isn’t likely to engage in war against China directly, but they will form an alliance with Western countries to impose blockades and sanctions on China, particularly using its sea and air superiority to cut off China’s maritime lifeline, blocking China from importing resources needed for the manufacturing industry or exporting commodities. At the same time, they will cut off China’s capital chain through the two major financial centers of New York and London. He has also mentioned that the Chinese economy and the RMB are not free from the constrains of the US dollar yet.
China is currently in the midst of “millennium rejuvenation with precious opportunities, about to become strong and about to succeed”, and thus, “since it is currently facing the millennium rejuvenation and about to succeed, is taking back Taiwan a top priority for now?”
QIAO Liang said, “The Taiwan Issue, no matter how emphasized by us as China’s internal affairs, is still essentially a Sino-US issue.” He thinks that the Taiwan Issue won’t be resolved completely before China and the United States arm-wrestle it out.
QIAO Liang reminded us that once war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, all funds would be evacuated, and all enterprises would be closed. He said, “How much investment for economic stimulus and human resources for social management will an island need from us, where all people lose their jobs? …… How high will the price be and what will it cost us? Wouldn’t the price and the cost hamper or even put an end to the great rejuvenation?
Translated by VOG’s WenFan, Tina, and BigMama
