Sunday, January 10, 2021

SINO-INDIAN STAND OFF WARLIKE : EYE BALL TO EYE BALL , BARREL TO BARREL CONTACT

 SOURCE :  https://twitter.com/detresfa_

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/china-immediate-return-chinese-soldier-indian-army-went-astray-due-to-darkness-1757558-2021-01-10














SINO-INDIAN STAND OFF

WARLIKE : EYE  BALL TO EYE  BALL , BARREL TO BARREL CONTACT



I think the thing to keep in mind about the Sino-Indian standoff is that if it goes bad it can go real bad, real quick. (That might deter it from “going bad,” I should underscore.)
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d-atis
Skull and crossbones
@detresfa_
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Images circulating on social media in #China show TANKS & BMPs part of the #India #China standoff facing each other at what looks to be #RezangLa, image allegedly taken from the Indian side, green units Indian, red units Chinese
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Images circulating on social media in #China show TANKS & BMPs part of the #India #China standoff facing each other at what looks to be #RezangLa, image allegedly taken from the Indian side, green units Indian, red units Chinese






Replying to
Here is what it looks like from above, note the sat image is from earlier in November 2020 when the same equipment was positioned there


Images taken earlier today of #PangongTso show the lake surface frozen around the current area of tension between #India & #China where troops continue to be deployed braving harsh conditions as the standoff enters its ninth month






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Its not a satellite image its taken from Indian side and most probably planted in chinese SM. Look in second pic he has shown the angle from where the image is taken.
Replying to
Chinese are close but they cannot look over the ridge but indian tents are south of ridges and tanks formation is on North of ridge which gives indian tanks a good look down . While indian positions are in no contact of direct fire.
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Replying to
indiatoday.in/india/story/ch May be the one taking pics from Indian side as claimed in your tweet is the mentioned in news article



China calls for immediate return of soldier held by India, says he went astray 'due to darkness'

China has sought the immediate return of the soldier captured by the Indian Army in Chushul sector of eastern Ladakh on Friday, saying he went astray "due to darkness and complicated geography".




China has called for the immediate return of the Chinese soldier captured by India near Gurung hill in Chushul sector of eastern Ladakh on Friday. The China Military Online, a news portal run by the military's official PLA Daily, said on Saturday the Chinese soldier went astray "due to darkness and complicated geography".

"Due to darkness and complicated geography, a soldier of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) frontier defense force went astray in the China-India border early Friday morning, and the PLA frontier defense force notified the Indian side of the information the first time, hoping the Indian side could assist in search and rescue of the lost Chinese soldier," China Military Online said.

It said India confirmed the capture of the Chinese soldier nearly two hours after he went missing. The news portal said India also said the Chinese soldier would be returned to China after "receiving instructions from the superior authority".

China Military Online added that Indian authorities should "promptly transfer" the soldier back to China and "jointly maintain peace and tranquility in the border area".

The Indian Army on Friday apprehended a Chinese soldier near Gurung hill in Chushul sector of eastern Ladakh on Friday morning. The People's Liberation Army (PLA) soldier apparently lost his way and entered the Indian territory inadvertently.

In an official statement, the Indian Army said, "The PLA soldier had transgressed across the LAC and was taken into custody by Indian troops deployed in this area." The army said the Chinese soldier is "being dealt with as per laid down procedures". It said the circumstances under which the Chinese soldier had crossed the LAC are being investigated.































Saturday, January 9, 2021

ARMED FORCES MAN MANAGEMENT : DEFUSING THE PENSION BOMB

 SOURCE : 












DEFENCE PENSIONS

             DEFUSING THE PENSION BOMB

                                                                                   BY

                                      SANDEEP UNNITHAN


A  LEAKED  DEFENCE  MINISTRY  NOTE  PROPOSING  PENSION  CUTS TRIGGERS  CONTROVERSY.  BUT  WITHOUT  MAJOR REFORMS, THE INDIAN ARMED FORCES’ PENSION PROBLEM IS UNLIKELY TO DISAPPEAR






ver the past 11 months, India’s first Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), General Bipin Rawat, has opened many fronts in the battle for reform. He has attempted to bring down military expenditure, create new joint commands and encourage jointmanship among the forces. All of these are part of his mandate to create a leaner, meaner military. The Department of Military Affairs (DMA), which he heads within the MoD (ministry of defence), is responsible for ‘all major aspects of armed forces functioning’—this includes the organisation, recruitment, training and terms and conditions of service for personnel, as well as career management of all ranks of service members.


 However, some of his proposals, though well-meaning—like cutting down on ceremonies and the number of officers’ messes in peace stations—have attracted scorn from service members and turned into social media flamebait. Yet nothing has created as much discontent as the proposal to increase the retirement age of Indian Army personnel and to slash defence pensions. Among other changes, the proposal suggests the retirement age for colonels be increased from 54 to 57, brigadiers from 56 to 58 and major-generals from 58 to 59. The DMA wants a similar increase in retirement ages for personnel in the navy and air force as well. 


Another proposal is that officers who retire prematurely should get only a percentage of the stipulated pension: for instance, those with 26 to 30 years of service would get only 60 per cent and those with 31 to 35 years of service would get only 75 per cent of entitled premature retirement pensions (see Ballooning Pensions). Only those officers retiring with over 35 years of service would get full pensions. The calculated savings from this proposal have not been made public, but the objective is clear; the government wants to bring down the armed forces’ pension bill. The reason is not hard to see—this year, for the first time in the history of independent India, the government will spend more on paying pensions than on purchasing military hardware. In a nutshell, this year’s defence budget allocates Rs 1.3 lakh crore to defence pensions and Rs 1.1 lakh crore to buying military hardware like fighter jets, tanks and warships. 


   The proposal, which was leaked on social media, triggered a tsunami of protests primarily among (but not confined to) the military veterans’ community. One former army commander, who asked not to be named, described it as a “nutty proposal”, while a former deputy chief of army staff went further, calling it “harebrained”


         ‘As it is, [a career in the] military is the last option for the youth,’ wrote Major Gen. Satbir Singh, chairman of the IESM (Indian Ex-Servicemen Movement), in a letter to defence minister Rajnath Singh on November 7. ‘Introducing further downgradation, degradation, demotivation and demoralisation policies will seriously damage the efficiency and effectiveness of our military.’ The DMA’s logic has been questioned by the armed forces themselves. A leaked briefing note, purportedly for navy chief Admiral Karambir Singh, says the proposal has the potential to wreck the service as a career option and could cause a trust deficit within the armed forces.

   This also turns the armed forces’ human resources policy on its head. A steep and narrow promotion pyramid in which only 30 per cent of officers get to the rank of colonel has led to a policy of allowing officers who don’t make the cut to leave the service. If the proposal to reduce pensions is implemented, it could lead to a ‘greying’ of the armed forces—officers will likely choose to stay longer despite the lack of promotions to claim pension benefits, rather than choosing to retire early and making way for a younger lot.

THE TICKING PENSION BOMB

The defence budget, tabled in Parliament on February 1 this year, had some startling facts. The defence ministry’s Rs 1.33 lakh crore allocation for pensions was 28 per cent of the total budget. Over the past decade, defence pensions have seen the fastest growth in percentage terms of any component in the budget, outstripping even the growth in what the government spends on buying military hardware. The obvious solution—to hike the defence budget—seems unlikely in the present pandemic- and lockdown-induced downturn where the economy is projected to contract by 10.3 per cent this year. (Defence makes up 15 per cent of the central government’s expenditure and is the second largest head after interest payment liabilities.) 

This explosive growth in the pension bill can be traced back to a single decision taken exactly five years ago. In November 2015, the government announced the implementation of OROP (One Rank, One Pension), which mandated equal pensions for equal ranks, irrespective of the date of retirement. A promise made in the BJP’s 2014 manifesto, OROP was implemented after street protests staged by the military veterans’ community. Military analysts now say it has caused the most egregious harm to the defence budget. The pension bill has more than doubled from Rs 55,000 crore in 2015 to Rs 1.33 lakh crore in 2020-21. India has 3.2 million pensioners and dependents and only 1.6 million ex-servicemen. Pension outlays, as the last defence budget showed, are now increasing faster than the component for buying new military hardware like warships, planes and tanks. The government has pressed the pause button on its OROP promise of revising defence pensions every five years. The 2019 revision of pension scales, which would have seen it fork out an additional Rs 8,000-10,000 crore each year, has been put on hold by the government. 

 



A paper published in March 2020 by research scholar Laxman Kumar Behera at the Manohar Parrikar Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses says the increase in pension costs in the defence budget has come at the cost of capital procurement. The share of defence pensions, pay and allowances has gone up from 49 per cent in 2011-12 to 61 per cent in 2020-21. The share of capital expenditure has declined from 36 per cent in 2012 to 25 per cent in 2020- 21. ‘The fast rise in pension expenditure has a significant crowding out effect on stores and modernisation, two major components that determine a nation’s war-fighting ability. Needless to say, this does not augur well for India’s defence preparedness,’ Behera’s paper says. 

  Gen. Rawat, meanwhile, seems unfazed by the opprobrium that his proposal has attracted. “We are more concerned about the wellbeing of the frontline combatant soldiers who face the real hardships and on whose courage and valour we all seem to be basking in,” he told India Today TV on November 5, adding that it was the “technically qualified personnel within the armed forces” who were unhappy with such proposals. This echoes what the DMA proposal says—that specialists and super-specialists trained for highly skilled tasks leave the service to work in other sectors. “The loss of such high-skilled manpower results in a void in the service skill matrix and is counterproductive.”


However, an undated briefing note from naval headquarters provides the clearest reasons why the DMA proposal could be unimplementable. It warns that the proposal could lead to a trust deficit within the armed forces. The circular, also leaked on social media, says it could ‘end up setting a dangerous and avoidable precedent’ and that it could have worrying implications for moves like enhanced jointmanship and theatre commands (part of the CDS’s mandate). This method of reducing expenditure does not make mathematical sense, the paper says, because it could lead to the government retaining officers at full salary levels for longer periods of time—for an additional 16 years in the case of colonel-ranked officers—rather than retiring them early and paying them half their salary as pension. The briefing note says the DMA proposal, if implemented, could not only adversely impact the living standards of retired officers but also affect the navy’s ability to attract and retain talent. However, the biggest reason why the proposal could be unimplementable is that it opens the armed forces up to a barrage of litigation by changing the terms and conditions of service in the armed forces. In a similar vein, the New Pension Scheme (NPS), which paid a lump sum to retiring civilian government employees instead of a lifelong pension, was introduced in 2004. The government found it could not be applied retrospectively to existing pensioners, only to those who had entered the service after the rules were changed. It would also be difficult for the government to slash defence pensions for armed forces personnel without doing the same for their civilian counterparts. 


THE FAST RISE IN PENSION COSTS HAS REDUCED RESOURCES AVAILABLE FOR STORES AND MODERNISATION, TWO COMPONENTS THAT DETERMINE A NATION’S WAR FIGHTING ABILITY


THE WAY AHEAD 

The government’s pension burden is unlikely to go away anytime soon. This is because India’s manpower-intensive armed forces have only worsened their pension costs in the recent past—India’s armed forces are the only major fighting force in the world that are increasing personnel numbers instead of reducing them. The Indian Army, with 1.3 million soldiers, is the world’s second largest, and it continued to add soldiers until 2015, when the government paused recruitment for the Army’s Mountain Strike Corps. The new corps envisaged adding 90,000 soldiers—all of whom will have to be paid pensions on retirement. 


Some cosmetic changes have been made in the name of reducing manpower—shutting down military farms, for instance—but these have not altered the skew of the armed forces towards manpower over military equipment. In countries with large militaries, like the US, pensions are a major spend, but the bulk of US military personnel do not qualify for pensions, because nearly 80 per cent serve short terms. In sharp contrast, Indian officers are on permanent commissions and make up over 80 per cent of the force, going on to see over 20 years of service. 


In terms of reforms, the armed forces have paid lip service to options like short service commissions, in which officers and men serve for periods that do not qualify them for pensions. Proposals made by the sixth pay commission in 2006 to absorb retiring army personnel into the central police forces could have ensured the government retained a portion of its trained manpower rather than sending them home early as pensioners. These were not implemented because of opposition from the home ministry. 


The solution could lie in policies like the NPS, which was implemented for all government servants (except armed forces’ employees) in 2004. Under the NPS, government employees contribute towards their own pensions from their monthly salaries, with a matching contribution from their employers. Pension fund managers then invest these funds in earmarked investment schemes. The entire corpus is handed over to an individual at the time of retirement, free of tax. Army officials say that the NPS could be an attractive option instead of a monthly pension. But these are long-term proposals whose effects would be felt after over a decade. In the absence of holistic long-term solutions to the problem, short-term kneejerk responses could be the order of the day. 










Friday, January 8, 2021

An Expert Explains: Anatomy of an Insurrection (r)

 SOURCE: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/us-capitol-hill-siege-us-capitol-hill-siege-protest-donald-trump-joe-biden-7137572/



   Insurrection/Rebellion




Rebellion, uprising, or insurrection is a refusal of obedience or order. It refers to the open resistance against the orders of an established authority. Wikipedia



                      

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An Expert Explains:

    Anatomy of an Insurrection


How did the extraordinary situation of an out-of-control mob taking over the United States Capitol come about? Is a delusional President's incendiary speechmaking the only reason? What is the responsibility that the Republican Party must take?


Pro-Trump protesters storm the U.S. Capitol to contest the certification of the 2020 US presidential election results by Congress, at the US Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., US January 6, 2021. (Reuters Photo: Ahmed Gaber)

Almost every cliché of political theory has been used to describe the events of January 6 – carnage, coup, even riot. But while Donald Trump may have incited the mob, the events at the United States Capitol were the unfortunate but logical conclusion of the way in which a dominant section of the Republican Party has articulated its political strategy over the last decade or more.

The swearing-in of Joe Biden as President on January 20 may, therefore, formally end the tenure of Donald Trump, but unless and until the Republican Party transforms itself, January 6 will be one more marker on the route of destructive politics that is dividing the US more strikingly than at any time since the American civil war.

Riots, violence & anarchy on Capitol Hill — implications                for American soft power, Trumpism & world


Video :      Google  URL to open

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In many ways, the events of January 6 could have been foretold when Trump and the core of his support base refused to accept that he had lost the presidential election. It was clear that Trump would not, to paraphrase Dylan Thomas, “go gentle into the good night”.

For most of his term, almost everyone who has observed Trump closely – including many who have worked with him – have been convinced that the incumbent in the Oval office is not entirely stable.

Almost a year ago, nearly 350 psychiatrists and other mental professionals petitioned to Congress that the President’s mental health was “rapidly deteriorating”. At least two well-known psychiatrists from Yale and George Washington University stated that “Trump appeared to be showing signs of delusion by doubling down on falsehoods and conspiracy theories.” They concluded there was “real potential” that Trump could be “ever more dangerous, a threat to the safety of our nation”.

These delusions have only aggravated since the election, which Trump was convinced was stolen from him by fraud committed by the Democratic Party in collusion with local officials.

The dangerous politics of the Republican Party

However, the deeper cause that goes beyond the delusions of Trump lies within the Republican Party itself. While its core support is derived from an elite who are attracted to it on the basis of free market fundamentalism and what the writer-thinker Ayn Rand described as the virtue of selfishness (Rand’s The Fountainhead and its story of the architect Howard Roark is Trump’s favourite novel), it needs a wider base to become electable.

In his review of Jacob S Hacker and Paul Pierson’s Let Them Eat Tweets: How the Right Rules in an Age of Extreme Inequality, Franklin Foer wrote in The New York Times: “From their 19th-century inception, political parties of the right have faced an electoral disadvantage since, for the most part, they emerged as vessels for the wealthy, a definitionally small coterie. Their growth seemed further constrained by the fact that they could never match their opponents’ enticing promises of government largesse because their wealthy backers steadfastly refused to pay higher taxes…”

In order to become electable, the Republican Party has had to widen its constituency by adding toxic emotional content to its political ideology that has helped it to win the support of sections of the white working class.

It has done so by appealing to faith, patriotism, racial prejudice, and the so-called core American values – and by exploiting the sense of victimhood of the white working class. While pre-Trump, much of the messaging was limited to dog whistling, the President was brazen in representing the Democratic Party as being against God and American values and freedoms (including the right to bear arms), and responsible for disenfranchising white voters by weakening voting laws and following pro immigration policies. Even the obvious need to wear masks during the Covid-19 pandemic was projected as an attempt by Democrats to undermine the fundamental rights of American citizens.

In the period after the election, Trump was publicly elusive, but was using the subterranean web and social media to mobilise his supporters to gather at the Capitol on the day Congress was to certify Joe Biden’s election victory. His message was simple and direct: “We will never give up, we will never concede… You don’t concede when there’s theft involved.” The former Mayor of New York and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani added: “Let’s have trial by combat.”

Smoke fills the walkway outside the Senate Chamber as supporters of President Donald Trump are confronted by US Capitol Police officers inside the Capitol, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021 in Washington. 
(AP Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta)

What followed at the US Capitol was a reflection of the delusional personality of Trump and the dangerous politics of the Republican Party, particularly aggrieved by losing both Senate seats from Georgia – which was to a large extent due to an unprecedented mobilisation of black voters by Stacey Abrams, who almost single-handedly built a coalition of grassroots support for the Democratic Party in the state.

Capitol consequences, case for 25th Amendment

The short-term consequences of the events of January 6 are obvious. There is widespread outrage within most sections of public opinion, akin to a political catharsis. Internationally, US democracy is no longer the “shining city on the hill”.

But whether the outrage will be a moment of awakening, or “epiphany” as the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi put it, remains to be seen. Much will depend on whether the Republican Party realises the limits of destructive Trumpism; there is some evidence in the distancing of key figures of the party from Trump and his follies.

As of now, for many, every one of the next 13 days that Trump has remaining in the Oval Office is a day too many; this is true for Americans as well as for the world. Trump is still in charge of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, weapons that could destroy the planet as we know it several times over.

Therefore, there are serious moves to invoke the 25th Amendment. The Amendment, ratified in February 1967, deals with presidential disability and succession. While Section 3 of the 25th Amendment allows a President to declare his own inability (and has been invoked in the past during the Reagan and Bush eras), Section 4, which allows the Vice President and Cabinet to declare the President’s inability, has never been invoked before. This is the critical section at issue today.

Under Section 4, if Vice President Mike Pence and the majority of the Trump Cabinet or another body approved by Congress give a written declaration to the President pro tempore of the Senate, Chuck Grassley, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stating that the President is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”, Vice President Pence would assume power as the Acting President.

Thereafter, President Trump would have the right to challenge the decision through a written declaration stating that “no inability exists”. The Vice President and the majority of the Cabinet (or another body approved by Congress) would then have another four days to provide a second written declaration of the President’s inability.

Within 21 days of this declaration, Congress would need to confirm the President’s inability through a two-thirds vote of both Houses. However, this step would be unnecessary in Trump’s case, because his term ends on January 20.

Supporters of President Donald Trump climb the West wall of the the US Capitol on Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. 
(AP Photo: Jose Luis Magana)

The American constitutional law scholar, Joel K Goldstein, has argued that while the 25th Amendment does not provide a definition of “inability”, legislative authorities indicate that Sections 3 and 4 of the Amendment refer to “a wide range of physical and mental inabilities”, which “could be produced by attack, injury, illness…or could result from a degenerative process”.

This definition could clearly encompass a range of possible psychological assessments of Trump. Moreover, as Goldstein points out, Section 4 applies both when a Presidential candidate “refuses to recognise an inability, as well as when he is unable to do so”. Thus, Trump’s refusal to accept an assessment of his inability is irrelevant to an invocation of Section 4.

Going forward, India and post-Trump United States

Will the Trump Administration’s perceived proximity to India cast a shadow on bilateral relations during the Biden-Harris era?

India-US relations have bipartisan support and a majority within the US Congress recognise the importance of India, given particularly the rise of a belligerent China. Nonetheless, it is critical for New Delhi to dispel the impression that it had a special relationship with the Trump Administration – or that it would have been more comfortable with the re-election of a Republican President.

This demands also subtly tempering sections of the India diaspora who were enthusiastic Trump supporters, and reaching out to Democrats beyond key figures within the Biden-Harris administration. A willingness to engage with critics within the Democratic Party, and to be more open on sensitive issues could help to quickly ensure that the transition from Trump to Biden could be seamless at least for bilateral relations.

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