Showing posts with label USA-INDIA. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA-INDIA. Show all posts

Friday, January 8, 2021

An Expert Explains: Anatomy of an Insurrection (r)

 SOURCE: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/us-capitol-hill-siege-us-capitol-hill-siege-protest-donald-trump-joe-biden-7137572/



   Insurrection/Rebellion




Rebellion, uprising, or insurrection is a refusal of obedience or order. It refers to the open resistance against the orders of an established authority. Wikipedia



                      

 VIEW MORE:   Click/ Google  URL to open

https://www.google.com/search?q=Insurrection&safe=active&rlz=1C1ZKTG_enIN928IN928&sxsrf=ALeKk01AkesYvIu6FJvqTP7gAi1WHANd8A:1610098321468&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=jr23A8NGpn1dhM%252CCsK4BclclfDvaM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kTtygR9V9yJUPfMwWeIJRji4iAzYA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwidh4TUg4zuAhUWxzgGHSUVDOYQ_h16BAgqEAE#imgrc=2JO-4FzAcIJLMM



An Expert Explains:

    Anatomy of an Insurrection


How did the extraordinary situation of an out-of-control mob taking over the United States Capitol come about? Is a delusional President's incendiary speechmaking the only reason? What is the responsibility that the Republican Party must take?


Pro-Trump protesters storm the U.S. Capitol to contest the certification of the 2020 US presidential election results by Congress, at the US Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., US January 6, 2021. (Reuters Photo: Ahmed Gaber)

Almost every cliché of political theory has been used to describe the events of January 6 – carnage, coup, even riot. But while Donald Trump may have incited the mob, the events at the United States Capitol were the unfortunate but logical conclusion of the way in which a dominant section of the Republican Party has articulated its political strategy over the last decade or more.

The swearing-in of Joe Biden as President on January 20 may, therefore, formally end the tenure of Donald Trump, but unless and until the Republican Party transforms itself, January 6 will be one more marker on the route of destructive politics that is dividing the US more strikingly than at any time since the American civil war.

Riots, violence & anarchy on Capitol Hill — implications                for American soft power, Trumpism & world


Video :      Google  URL to open

                  https://youtu.be/gNS_fL4HVB8 ]

     (GOOGLE ABOVE-NAMED URL TO OPEN IN U-TUBE )

                                      


In many ways, the events of January 6 could have been foretold when Trump and the core of his support base refused to accept that he had lost the presidential election. It was clear that Trump would not, to paraphrase Dylan Thomas, “go gentle into the good night”.

For most of his term, almost everyone who has observed Trump closely – including many who have worked with him – have been convinced that the incumbent in the Oval office is not entirely stable.

Almost a year ago, nearly 350 psychiatrists and other mental professionals petitioned to Congress that the President’s mental health was “rapidly deteriorating”. At least two well-known psychiatrists from Yale and George Washington University stated that “Trump appeared to be showing signs of delusion by doubling down on falsehoods and conspiracy theories.” They concluded there was “real potential” that Trump could be “ever more dangerous, a threat to the safety of our nation”.

These delusions have only aggravated since the election, which Trump was convinced was stolen from him by fraud committed by the Democratic Party in collusion with local officials.

The dangerous politics of the Republican Party

However, the deeper cause that goes beyond the delusions of Trump lies within the Republican Party itself. While its core support is derived from an elite who are attracted to it on the basis of free market fundamentalism and what the writer-thinker Ayn Rand described as the virtue of selfishness (Rand’s The Fountainhead and its story of the architect Howard Roark is Trump’s favourite novel), it needs a wider base to become electable.

In his review of Jacob S Hacker and Paul Pierson’s Let Them Eat Tweets: How the Right Rules in an Age of Extreme Inequality, Franklin Foer wrote in The New York Times: “From their 19th-century inception, political parties of the right have faced an electoral disadvantage since, for the most part, they emerged as vessels for the wealthy, a definitionally small coterie. Their growth seemed further constrained by the fact that they could never match their opponents’ enticing promises of government largesse because their wealthy backers steadfastly refused to pay higher taxes…”

In order to become electable, the Republican Party has had to widen its constituency by adding toxic emotional content to its political ideology that has helped it to win the support of sections of the white working class.

It has done so by appealing to faith, patriotism, racial prejudice, and the so-called core American values – and by exploiting the sense of victimhood of the white working class. While pre-Trump, much of the messaging was limited to dog whistling, the President was brazen in representing the Democratic Party as being against God and American values and freedoms (including the right to bear arms), and responsible for disenfranchising white voters by weakening voting laws and following pro immigration policies. Even the obvious need to wear masks during the Covid-19 pandemic was projected as an attempt by Democrats to undermine the fundamental rights of American citizens.

In the period after the election, Trump was publicly elusive, but was using the subterranean web and social media to mobilise his supporters to gather at the Capitol on the day Congress was to certify Joe Biden’s election victory. His message was simple and direct: “We will never give up, we will never concede… You don’t concede when there’s theft involved.” The former Mayor of New York and Trump’s personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani added: “Let’s have trial by combat.”

Smoke fills the walkway outside the Senate Chamber as supporters of President Donald Trump are confronted by US Capitol Police officers inside the Capitol, Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021 in Washington. 
(AP Photo: Manuel Balce Ceneta)

What followed at the US Capitol was a reflection of the delusional personality of Trump and the dangerous politics of the Republican Party, particularly aggrieved by losing both Senate seats from Georgia – which was to a large extent due to an unprecedented mobilisation of black voters by Stacey Abrams, who almost single-handedly built a coalition of grassroots support for the Democratic Party in the state.

Capitol consequences, case for 25th Amendment

The short-term consequences of the events of January 6 are obvious. There is widespread outrage within most sections of public opinion, akin to a political catharsis. Internationally, US democracy is no longer the “shining city on the hill”.

But whether the outrage will be a moment of awakening, or “epiphany” as the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi put it, remains to be seen. Much will depend on whether the Republican Party realises the limits of destructive Trumpism; there is some evidence in the distancing of key figures of the party from Trump and his follies.

As of now, for many, every one of the next 13 days that Trump has remaining in the Oval Office is a day too many; this is true for Americans as well as for the world. Trump is still in charge of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, weapons that could destroy the planet as we know it several times over.

Therefore, there are serious moves to invoke the 25th Amendment. The Amendment, ratified in February 1967, deals with presidential disability and succession. While Section 3 of the 25th Amendment allows a President to declare his own inability (and has been invoked in the past during the Reagan and Bush eras), Section 4, which allows the Vice President and Cabinet to declare the President’s inability, has never been invoked before. This is the critical section at issue today.

Under Section 4, if Vice President Mike Pence and the majority of the Trump Cabinet or another body approved by Congress give a written declaration to the President pro tempore of the Senate, Chuck Grassley, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, stating that the President is “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office”, Vice President Pence would assume power as the Acting President.

Thereafter, President Trump would have the right to challenge the decision through a written declaration stating that “no inability exists”. The Vice President and the majority of the Cabinet (or another body approved by Congress) would then have another four days to provide a second written declaration of the President’s inability.

Within 21 days of this declaration, Congress would need to confirm the President’s inability through a two-thirds vote of both Houses. However, this step would be unnecessary in Trump’s case, because his term ends on January 20.

Supporters of President Donald Trump climb the West wall of the the US Capitol on Wednesday, Jan. 6, 2021, in Washington. 
(AP Photo: Jose Luis Magana)

The American constitutional law scholar, Joel K Goldstein, has argued that while the 25th Amendment does not provide a definition of “inability”, legislative authorities indicate that Sections 3 and 4 of the Amendment refer to “a wide range of physical and mental inabilities”, which “could be produced by attack, injury, illness…or could result from a degenerative process”.

This definition could clearly encompass a range of possible psychological assessments of Trump. Moreover, as Goldstein points out, Section 4 applies both when a Presidential candidate “refuses to recognise an inability, as well as when he is unable to do so”. Thus, Trump’s refusal to accept an assessment of his inability is irrelevant to an invocation of Section 4.

Going forward, India and post-Trump United States

Will the Trump Administration’s perceived proximity to India cast a shadow on bilateral relations during the Biden-Harris era?

India-US relations have bipartisan support and a majority within the US Congress recognise the importance of India, given particularly the rise of a belligerent China. Nonetheless, it is critical for New Delhi to dispel the impression that it had a special relationship with the Trump Administration – or that it would have been more comfortable with the re-election of a Republican President.

This demands also subtly tempering sections of the India diaspora who were enthusiastic Trump supporters, and reaching out to Democrats beyond key figures within the Biden-Harris administration. A willingness to engage with critics within the Democratic Party, and to be more open on sensitive issues could help to quickly ensure that the transition from Trump to Biden could be seamless at least for bilateral relations.

______________________________

______________________________




Tuesday, November 17, 2020

KASHMIR POLITICS Despite strong words, a Biden-Harris administration is unlikely to change US position on Kashmir There are few expectations in the Valley.(R)

SOURCE

https://scroll.in/article/978599/despite-strong-words-a-biden-harris-administration-is-unlikely-to-change-us-position-on-kashmir


KASHMIR POLITICS

Desphite strong words, a Biden-Harris administration is unlikely to change US position on Kashmir

There are few expectations in the Valley. 

By

                                       Ipsita Chakravarty



If United States President Donald Trump takes time off from golfing to concede the election, the country will soon have a Democrat government. Observers in the Indian establishment may have greeted this news with mixed feelings.

Trump had come to power in 2016 declaring he was a “big fan of Hindu” and a “big fan of India”, comments that chimed well with the Bhartiya Janata Party government at the Centre. Four years of high-octane camaraderie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Trump followed. Earlier this year, Modi even endorsed a second “Trump Sarkar” while the visiting president maintained a tactical silence on India’s new citizenship laws and human rights violations in Kashmir. The awkward moment came a few months later, when Trump breezily offered to mediate between India and Pakistan to sort out tensions between the two.

The Biden-Harris campaign has been different in tenor, especially when it came to human rights in Kashmir. In 2019, soon after the Centre stripped Jammu and Kashmir of special status under Article 370 and split it into two Union Territories, Harris did not mince words. “We have to remind Kashmiris they are not alone in the world,” she said. “We are keeping a track on the situation. There is a need to intervene if the situation demands.”

In the Biden campaign’s agenda for Muslim Americans, India’s National Register of Citizens and Kashmir featured in the list of threats to Muslim populations across the world. “In Kashmir, the Indian government should take all necessary steps to restore rights for all the people of Kashmir,” said the campaign agenda. “Restrictions on dissent, such as preventing peaceful protests or shutting or slowing down the Internet, weaken democracy.”

Despite these strong words, the US stance on Kashmir is unlikely to alter with a change of guard in the White House.

US in Crisis

As political scientist Paul Staniland pointed out, “The US is in a massive political crisis that won’t end even when Biden takes power.” Which means, the old priorities are unlikely to change, especially after an election fought largely on domestic issues.

First, the need of the US to find a counterweight to China in the region. While Indian and Chinese forces are massed along the frontier in Eastern Ladakh, Washington and Beijing fight for control in the South China Sea and Taiwan. The US has also viewed China’s drive for primacy in the economic and technological realms with growing alarm. A Biden administration might not pursue Trump’s aggressive trade war with China and is likely to seek cooperation in other spheres. But it will not be radically different in its impulse to contain China. “The last thing a domestically beleaguered US administration facing the rise of China has any appetite for would be a major diplomatic offensive in South Asia,” said Staniland.

Second, Indian markets remain important to American firms. Despite the shrinking of the Indian economy, even in March, top US diplomats were urging Indian markets to open up. Last year, the US notched up $34 billion in exports to India, and that’s not counting what Indians spend on US technology, travel and other services. Though it is far behind China, India’s markets have an outsized presence compared to its economy.

Staniland also added that Indian coverage of the Kashmir statements overestimated US domestic-political interest in South Asian politics: “On Kashmir specifically, it’s largely fallen out of the US media compared to summer/fall 2019.”

A paramilitary soldier guards a street in Srinagar. Credit: Tauseef Mustafa/AFP

Indifferent Valley

Indeed, American interest in the region has long faded. According to this article by Arun Joshi in Greater Kashmir, in the 1990s, the White House and the US State Department kept a close watch on the daily violence in the Valley. US diplomats made regular visits to the Valley and Frank Wisner, then US ambassador to India, developed personal relationships with Kashmiri politicians, including the separatist Hurriyat leadership. Since then, the diplomatic visits have dwindled. In a post 9/11 world, the US has been distracted by other wars.

This waning interest is also reflected in public discourse in the Valley. According to popular mythology in Kashmir in the heyday of the militancy, Delhi was known as the “markaz”, or power centre pulling strings. Islamabad was another “markaz”. The US was the ultimate “markaz” dictating operations. This time, as news of Trump’s defeat trickled in, a few political parties in Kashmir issued statements, expressing the hope that the “politics of polarisation” was over and that the Biden-Harris government would focus on the “wrongs that are being done” in Kashmir.

But the wider public appears to have to have shrugged it off, even though the president’s anti-Muslim policies had made him unpopular in Kashmir. China’s incursions in Ladakh gave rise to far greater interest and some black humour in the Valley.

Few expect much from the change at the White House. After the sweeping changes of 2019, Joshi notes, “Kashmiris were in shock over the silence of the world. Now it does not shock them anymore.”

A fine balance

While the White House may remain tight-lipped, there may be more sound and fury in the US Congress. Even under a Trump administration last year, the House Foreign Affairs Committee held a hearing on human rights in South Asia where Democrat Congresswoman Ilhan Omar grilled US government representatives and speakers from India on the state of affairs in Kashmir.

Two resolutions were moved in Congress. One, by Democrat representative Pramila Jayapal, raised concerns about the communications blockade while speaking of “dire security challenges” faced by the Indian government. It found bipartisan support. The other, pushed by Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib, held that India had “unilaterally changed the status of Jammu and Kashmir without a direct consultation or the consent of the Kashmiri people”. It condemned human rights violations and spoke of “supporting Kashmiri self-determination”. It had few takers even within the Democratic party.

Going forward, Staniland predicted, the US might adopt the kind of balance reflected in the Jayapal resolution – talking about human rights rather than “making deeper claims about Kashmir’s political status or suggesting actual coercive measures”.

The longstanding US position on Kashmir, as this Congressional paper from last year noted, was that it should be settled through “negotiations between India and Pakistan while taking into consideration the wishes of the Kashmiri people”. But for years, the US government has done little to push that position. 

Biden may not provide the kind of “political cover” that Trump did to Modi, but he is unlikely to rock the boat.

Monday, November 9, 2020

Why America Must Lead Again:Rescuing U.S. Foreign Policy After Trump (R)

SOURCE:

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again



                                   Click/Google to Open the VIDEO      [ https://youtu.be/lVwSmc6K5x4 ]


                Joe Biden’s foreign policy vision                                                from his own writings 

                                             & 

                what it means for India & Modi


                        

Monday, December 12, 2016

Loose Cannons, Generals And US Foreign Policy In The Trump Era

SOURCE:
http://swarajyamag.com/world/loose-cannons-generals-and-us-foreign-policy-in-the-trump-era








SNAPSHOT

President-elect Trump seems to be hiring US Army and Marine Corps generals in key advisory roles.
While its impact on US policy is debatable, what’s common to Trump’s picks is that they all disagree with President Obama on his policies.
Under Obama, India-US relations reached new heights. India shouldn’t take that for granted, and must instead stay prepared for any eventuality.




Loose Cannons, Generals                      And

   US Foreign Policy In 

      The Trump Era

                                  BY
                     Syed Ata Hasnain 




December 11, 2016,                                                       
   President-elect Donald Trump has a few more weeks to remain in the ‘loose cannon’ mode before he is fully accountable for what he utters. For over a year, he has been trumpeting his wares, his mind and his ideas, on a nation which is in a state of regression. The entire Trump phenomenon arose from a sense of insecurity brought on by the failure of post-Cold War international configurations that the United States (US) sought to create. The so-called restructuring of the new world order at a time of fundamental change in the way the world exists and does business could not succeed. The Information Revolution and the resultant globalisation hasn’t given the dividends that were sought by a superpower like the US.


In fact, in an era when the US is still counted as the only superpower, there is an internal weakening in its fabric, leading to a loss of confidence among its people in the American Dream. The economic meltdown of 2008 added to its woes, and the military deployments in Afghanistan-Pakistan and Iraq, the former a strategic compulsion and the latter a strategic blunder, only weighted the sinking ship. The social fabric of the US, formerly its strength, suddenly has become a weakness.

The arrival of Trump at such a crucial juncture in US and world history, when the world is seeking a mature approach towards the persisting problems of communal confrontation and phenomena such as terror and radicalism, could not have been more tragic.
In India, we may gloat about our success and the fact that an Indian American hand also facilitated Trump’s success; the emergence of Indian American personalities in the soon-to-be-created power centre of the Republicans seems to also overawe us. The impact on India-US relations may well have a telling effect – Indian American political personalities are not known to display any loyalty to their former homeland. In fact, in the case of personalities such as Bobby Jindal, the opposite is known to be true.

Trump’s utterances continue to project the extent of his ignorance in matters strategic, especially if they concern the military domain. Out-of-the-box ideas and introduction of volatility in the leadership style are fine if the strategic leader has a firm hold over history and an understanding of the nuances. Trump, probably on advice, is obviously following a strategy of gamesmanship, needling opponents, forcing them to respond to reveal their core concerns and display their limits of tolerance. His telephonic conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the first recorded conversation between an American President and a Taiwan head of state since 1979, has irked China. Ever since the US decided to improve its relationship with China following the pathbreaking diplomatic efforts of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, the principle of One China has been adhered to – with no diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the US has maintained a special relationship with the island state and treaded a careful path, something that is only now coming into focus.
On Iran, Trump’s views are well known and supported by his advisors; the 15 July 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement does not meet approval among any of them. The future of Iraq and Syria, as well as the situation in West Asia, will be dependent on US’ attitude towards the Iran nuclear deal.
The President-elect is known to have been guided to some extent during the campaign by a set of US Army and Marine Corps generals who are emerging from the shadows. Among the ones likely to be advising him as part of his core team are General Michael Flynn as Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor and General James Mattis for Defense Secretary. More uniformed officials from the four American armed forces, including General Stanley McChrystal, could find plum, influential jobs running intelligence agencies or offering advice. The New York Times observed that the single thread tying them all together is that they all had issues with President Barack Obama.
Trump seems to perceive the idea of a political opposition as one with a literal 180-degree opposition. Expectations always remain that a presidential candidate once elected would quickly adjust himself to the ways of the establishment and proceed cautiously in terms of pursuing change. But one example from history of single-minded pursuance of change as a policy was Nixon with his approach to China; ping-pong diplomacy took just five months to commence after his inauguration.
Observers are terming the entry of US Generals into advisory and strategic decision-making roles as dangerous because that would inevitably lead to a more robust policy of the use of hard power. However, the New York Times, quoting Stephen K Bannon, the President-elect’s chief strategist, says “the 
incoming administration was looking at 
potential cabinet officials with combat 
experience so that people who had fought in 
wars would be making decisions about whether 
to commit the country to more of them.” Military leaders of the Marshall, Eisenhower and Powell variety drew much respect when saddled with political responsibilities. Yet today, even military analysts are being critical. Retired Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, who authored two books on military strategy, speaks about the feasibility of too many military instruments in every consideration of international security.  Somehow, the perception of military leaders seeking conflict resolution through the employment of only hard power appears to have permeated the thinking of most academic and security related analysts. This is also the opinion of the political class and civil society in most nations.
To establish the truth or otherwise of this perception would need a separate essay. Currently suffice to say that military leaders are acutely conscious of the economic and social implications of the unrestrained use of hard power. Military institutions the world over, which teach and discuss strategy, usually emphasise on all instruments of conflict resolution. The United Kingdom’s Royal College of Defence Studies and India’s National Defence College hardly carry much content about the military in their curriculum. Yet, somehow this perception prevails to the detriment of exploiting the strategic might and experience of military leaderships.
For Indian foreign policy specialists, analysts and those specifically focused on the development of the India-US strategic relationship, this would be a time for concern. If 
there has to be a marked influence of the US 
military on strategic policy formulation, then it 
is worth knowing that the US military has no 
particular affection for India. The slight disdain that exists, and many would take this writer up on it, is symbolically displayed in many a US training institution where both Indian and Pakistan Army personnel train. In all strategic seminars around the world, it is the Pakistan Army which finds favour with the US armed forces. India’s Soviet/Russia connect from the Cold War era and the US-Pakistan connect of CENTO and, also, the 1979-89 period of Soviet presence in Afghanistan inspires less confidence in India and more in Pakistan, at least within the US uniformed and intelligence community.
Former US President George Bush’s push for a stronger US-India equation received energetic support from President Obama in the second half of his presidency. Just when things seem to be looking upwards comes the new presidency of Trump. Continuity is usually the responsibility of non-partisan bureaucracies, but when the President-elect is veering towards hiring advisors who have had major disagreements with President Obama, the potential of continuity becomes questionable.
This is what Indian policy planners must be prepared for. They must work to prevent awkward perceptions from developing. The time to work on that is now, even before the inauguration. We may be sceptical about the alleged Trump-Nawaz Sharif telephonic chat and promises of a visit to Pakistan, but Pakistan’s strategic position in world polity must not be scoffed at. Indian efforts at isolating Pakistan on the issue of terrorism have been insufficiently supported internationally, and the US continues to play games in this regard. The strategic importance of Pakistan’s territorial space for all kinds of international players makes it a nation everyone wishes to befriend.
Trump may yet turn out to be an outstanding President, independent in thought and not tied to old-world equations. Yet, the uniformed intellectual community is definitely going to be a major player in deciding US security policy. If that is the case, India will have to redouble its efforts to stay where it has reached with President Obama and potentially engage in different dimensions beyond just the political and diplomatic contacts.
Calling upon the Indian military and 
intelligence community to play a greater role in 
diplomacy may well be in order.
You re reading 1 of 7 free articles for this weaek. Only Swarajya subscribers have unlimited access to all our articles.
Click here to subscribe for as little as Rs 299Already have an account? Log in
 
  • Donald Trump

  • America

  • India-US relations

  • US Foreign Policy

  • Indian foreign policy

  • Michael Flynn
  •