Loose Cannons, Generals And US Foreign Policy In The Trump Era

SOURCE:
http://swarajyamag.com/world/loose-cannons-generals-and-us-foreign-policy-in-the-trump-era

SNAPSHOT

President-elect Trump seems to be hiring US Army and Marine Corps generals in key advisory roles.

While its impact on US policy is debatable, what’s common to Trump’s picks is that they all disagree with President Obama on his policies.

Under Obama, India-US relations reached new heights. India shouldn’t take that for granted, and must instead stay prepared for any eventuality.

Loose Cannons, Generals                      And

   US Foreign Policy In 

      The Trump Era

                                  BY
                     Syed Ata Hasnain 




December 11, 2016,                                                       
   President-elect Donald Trump has a few more weeks to remain in the ‘loose cannon’ mode before he is fully accountable for what he utters. For over a year, he has been trumpeting his wares, his mind and his ideas, on a nation which is in a state of regression. The entire Trump phenomenon arose from a sense of insecurity brought on by the failure of post-Cold War international configurations that the United States (US) sought to create. The so-called restructuring of the new world order at a time of fundamental change in the way the world exists and does business could not succeed. The Information Revolution and the resultant globalisation hasn’t given the dividends that were sought by a superpower like the US.

In fact, in an era when the US is still counted as the only superpower, there is an internal weakening in its fabric, leading to a loss of confidence among its people in the American Dream. The economic meltdown of 2008 added to its woes, and the military deployments in Afghanistan-Pakistan and Iraq, the former a strategic compulsion and the latter a strategic blunder, only weighted the sinking ship. The social fabric of the US, formerly its strength, suddenly has become a weakness.

The arrival of Trump at such a crucial juncture in US and world history, when the world is seeking a mature approach towards the persisting problems of communal confrontation and phenomena such as terror and radicalism, could not have been more tragic.

In India, we may gloat about our success and the fact that an Indian American hand also facilitated Trump’s success; the emergence of Indian American personalities in the soon-to-be-created power centre of the Republicans seems to also overawe us. The impact on India-US relations may well have a telling effect – Indian American political personalities are not known to display any loyalty to their former homeland. In fact, in the case of personalities such as Bobby Jindal, the opposite is known to be true.

Trump’s utterances continue to project the extent of his ignorance in matters strategic, especially if they concern the military domain. Out-of-the-box ideas and introduction of volatility in the leadership style are fine if the strategic leader has a firm hold over history and an understanding of the nuances. Trump, probably on advice, is obviously following a strategy of gamesmanship, needling opponents, forcing them to respond to reveal their core concerns and display their limits of tolerance. His telephonic conversation with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, the first recorded conversation between an American President and a Taiwan head of state since 1979, has irked China. Ever since the US decided to improve its relationship with China following the pathbreaking diplomatic efforts of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger, the principle of One China has been adhered to – with no diplomatic relations with Taiwan. However, the US has maintained a special relationship with the island state and treaded a careful path, something that is only now coming into focus.

On Iran, Trump’s views are well known and supported by his advisors; the 15 July 2015 Iran Nuclear Agreement does not meet approval among any of them. The future of Iraq and Syria, as well as the situation in West Asia, will be dependent on US’ attitude towards the Iran nuclear deal.

The President-elect is known to have been guided to some extent during the campaign by a set of US Army and Marine Corps generals who are emerging from the shadows. Among the ones likely to be advising him as part of his core team are General Michael Flynn as Trump’s pick for National Security Advisor and General James Mattis for Defense Secretary. More uniformed officials from the four American armed forces, including General Stanley McChrystal, could find plum, influential jobs running intelligence agencies or offering advice. The New York Times observed that the single thread tying them all together is that they all had issues with President Barack Obama.

Trump seems to perceive the idea of a political opposition as one with a literal 180-degree opposition. Expectations always remain that a presidential candidate once elected would quickly adjust himself to the ways of the establishment and proceed cautiously in terms of pursuing change. But one example from history of single-minded pursuance of change as a policy was Nixon with his approach to China; ping-pong diplomacy took just five months to commence after his inauguration.

Observers are terming the entry of US Generals into advisory and strategic decision-making roles as dangerous because that would inevitably lead to a more robust policy of the use of hard power. However, the New York Times, quoting Stephen K Bannon, the President-elect’s chief strategist, says “the 

incoming administration was looking at 

potential cabinet officials with combat 

experience so that people who had fought in 

wars would be making decisions about whether 

to commit the country to more of them.” Military leaders of the Marshall, Eisenhower and Powell variety drew much respect when saddled with political responsibilities. Yet today, even military analysts are being critical. Retired Lieutenant Colonel John Nagl, who authored two books on military strategy, speaks about the feasibility of too many military instruments in every consideration of international security.  Somehow, the perception of military leaders seeking conflict resolution through the employment of only hard power appears to have permeated the thinking of most academic and security related analysts. This is also the opinion of the political class and civil society in most nations.

To establish the truth or otherwise of this perception would need a separate essay. Currently suffice to say that military leaders are acutely conscious of the economic and social implications of the unrestrained use of hard power. Military institutions the world over, which teach and discuss strategy, usually emphasise on all instruments of conflict resolution. The United Kingdom’s Royal College of Defence Studies and India’s National Defence College hardly carry much content about the military in their curriculum. Yet, somehow this perception prevails to the detriment of exploiting the strategic might and experience of military leaderships.

For Indian foreign policy specialists, analysts and those specifically focused on the development of the India-US strategic relationship, this would be a time for concern. If 

there has to be a marked influence of the US 

military on strategic policy formulation, then it 

is worth knowing that the US military has no 

particular affection for India. The slight disdain that exists, and many would take this writer up on it, is symbolically displayed in many a US training institution where both Indian and Pakistan Army personnel train. In all strategic seminars around the world, it is the Pakistan Army which finds favour with the US armed forces. India’s Soviet/Russia connect from the Cold War era and the US-Pakistan connect of CENTO and, also, the 1979-89 period of Soviet presence in Afghanistan inspires less confidence in India and more in Pakistan, at least within the US uniformed and intelligence community.

Former US President George Bush’s push for a stronger US-India equation received energetic support from President Obama in the second half of his presidency. Just when things seem to be looking upwards comes the new presidency of Trump. Continuity is usually the responsibility of non-partisan bureaucracies, but when the President-elect is veering towards hiring advisors who have had major disagreements with President Obama, the potential of continuity becomes questionable.

This is what Indian policy planners must be prepared for. They must work to prevent awkward perceptions from developing. The time to work on that is now, even before the inauguration. We may be sceptical about the alleged Trump-Nawaz Sharif telephonic chat and promises of a visit to Pakistan, but Pakistan’s strategic position in world polity must not be scoffed at. Indian efforts at isolating Pakistan on the issue of terrorism have been insufficiently supported internationally, and the US continues to play games in this regard. The strategic importance of Pakistan’s territorial space for all kinds of international players makes it a nation everyone wishes to befriend.

Trump may yet turn out to be an outstanding President, independent in thought and not tied to old-world equations. Yet, the uniformed intellectual community is definitely going to be a major player in deciding US security policy. If that is the case, India will have to redouble its efforts to stay where it has reached with President Obama and potentially engage in different dimensions beyond just the political and diplomatic contacts.

Calling upon the Indian military and 

intelligence community to play a greater role in 

diplomacy may well be in order.

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Donald Trump

America

India-US relations

US Foreign Policy

Indian foreign policy

Michael Flynn

                                                                         

PROJECT SARASWATI : India's 'Miracle River'

SOURCE:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/2073159.stm


                PROJECT SARASWATI

          India's 'Miracle River'

Saturday, 29 June, 2002

Scientists say new evidence could              unearth the Saraswati

The legend of the mighty Saraswati river has lived on in India since time immemorial. Ancient Hindu scriptures called the Vedas, recorded thousands of years ago, are full of tantalising hymns about it being the life-stream of the people.

In a new radio programme, Madhur Jaffrey recounts the legend of the Saraswati river - and explores startling new evidence that it may not have been a myth after all.

Vast and awesome, the Saraswati's holy waters are supposed to have flowed from the Himalayas into the sea, nourishing the land along the way. But as the centuries passed and no one could find it, myth, belief and religion came together and the Saraswati passed into the realm of folklore.

Now most people in India think of it as a mythical river. Some even believe that it is an invisible river or that it still flows underground. Another commonly held perception is that the Saraswati once flowed through the north Indian city of Allahabad, meeting there with two other rivers, the Ganges and the Jamuna.

The confluence of these three rivers - one of which is not visible to the eye - is considered one of India's holiest spots.

For most of the country, the name Saraswati is better known for its divine namesake - the goddess Saraswati, Hindu goddess of Learning. Worshipped particularly by students and school children, her festival falls in February, and the city of Calcutta is famous for celebrating her in style.

                        Saraswati, 
    Hindu Goddess of Learning 

Makeshift shrines are erected in every street and after the festival is over, thousands of the images are taken to the banks of the river Hooghly and pitched into the water where they are forever carried away by the river.

The goddess' connection to water is part of the enigma that surrounds the river. But that mystery could be set to be dispelled forever, as startling scientific evidence has come to light.

Through satellite photography, scientists have mapped the course of an enormous river that once flowed through the north western region of India. The images show that it was 8 km wide in places and that it dried up 4,000 years ago.

Dr JR Sharma who heads the Remote Sensing Services Centre in Jodhpur which is mapping the images, believes a major earthquake may have played a part in the demise of the Saraswati. There was, he says, a big tectonic activity that stopped the water supply to the river.

Sharma and his team believe they have found the Saraswati and are excited about what this discovery could mean for India. The idea is to tap its potential as a water source. They are working with India¿s leading water experts who are using the satellite images as clues.

Deep in the western Rajasthan desert, not far from the security-conscious border with Pakistan, an extraordinary programme is underway. Giant drilling rigs probe deep into the dry, arid earth pulling out undisturbed layers of soil and sediment for scientists to study and test.

          Scientists Hope to Find 
          Water Under the Desert 

Water engineers are exploring the region's ancient riverbeds for what they call groundwater - underground reservoirs that contain perfectly drinkable water. If they are successful, their discovery could transform the lives of thousands of locals who currently experience harsh water shortages.

Mr KS Sriwastawa of the Rajasthan State Groundwater Board believes one of these ancient buried channels may be the Saraswati.

He knows the stories refer to the ancient river flowing through this area and says excitedly that carbon dating has revealed that the water they are finding is 4000 years old. That would date it to the time of the Saraswati.

The modern search for the Saraswati was first sparked by an English engineer called CF Oldham in 1893 when he was riding his horse along the dry bed of a seasonal Rajasthani river called the Ghaggar.

As he rode on, he was struck by a sudden thought. The Ghaggar when it flowed, was a small, puny river and there was no reason for its bed to be up to 3km wide in places unless it occupied the former course of a much larger river - the Saraswati.

The discovery of a vast prehistoric civilisation that lived along the banks of a major river, has added impetus to the growing modern belief that the Saraswati has been found.

Over 1000 archaeological sites have been found on the course of this river and they date from 3000 BC. One of these sites is the prehistoric town of Kalibangan in northern Rajasthan.

The town has proved a treasure trove of information about the Bronze Age people who actually lived on the banks of the Saraswati. Archaeologists have discovered that there were priests, farmers, merchants and very advanced artists and craftsmen living there.

Highly sophisticated seals on which there is evidence of writing have also been found, indicating that these people were literate, but unfortunately the seals have never been deciphered.

They may well hold the clue to the mystery of what happened to the Saraswati and whether it has really been found again.

The Miracle River is broadcast at 3.30pm on Saturday 29 June on BBC Radio 4

Is India Prepared To Deal With Hybrid War? – Analysis

SOURCE:
http://www.eurasiareview.com/08122016-is-india-prepared-to-deal-with-hybrid-war-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29


Is India Prepared To Deal With Hybrid War?
                                       By
                  Brig Anil Gupta (Retd)*


December 8, 2016


Samba, Gurdaspur, Pathankot, Pampore, Uri, Macchail, about 200 ceasefire violations targeting civilians and now Nagrota — the list is endless and increasing. After every incident, strong statements are made, Pakistan is blamed, provocative debates are held on TV channels, an inquiry is ordered — gradually it fades away from the nation’s memory and things return to square one till we are awakened by another rude shock.
Pakistan remains in the denial mode as usual and indulges in mutual blame game till conclusive evidence is produced of its involvement and even then it has the audacity to continue to harp about home-grown militancy.

In fact, ever since 1947, Pakistan has never ever admitted initially to its involvement in tribal raids in J&K, 1965, 1971, Khalistan movement, Kashmir, Kandhar, Parliament attack, Kargil, and the current unrest in Kashmir. It is part of its strategy.


There is no denying the fact that Pakistan has been using hybrid threats against India since Independence. With the emergence of technology, the threats have become more deadly and potent and have been given a new name of “Hybrid War”.


Hybrid War can best be described as a combination of conventional and sub-conventional threats and can be unleashed both by the state and non-state actors.

China, another adversary of India’s, is also a big proponent of this type of warfare in the 21st century and terms it as “Unrestricted Warfare.”

This type of warfare is characterised by undefined battle space and extends to the flanks and rear as well. In other words, there is no front or rear in the hybrid warfare battlefield and it can manifest anywhere on the borders or deep inside the hinterland


The tools of hybrid war, or the hybrid threats, include conventional warfare, irregular warfare, economic warfare, cyber warfare, subversion, criminal acts, Special Ops, information warfare or propaganda and violence. In hybrid war, conflicts are as much political as military.


Pakistan continues to use terrorism as an instrument of state policy. A section of Indian elite is also a tool of Pakistan’s hybrid warfare against India. Through its intelligence agencies and Track 2 diplomacy, Pakistan has successfully cultivated a section among India’s political and social elite that is not only pro-Pakistan but also questions the Indian Parliamentary resolution of 1994 claiming the entire state of J&K as an integral part of India.


The Nagrota attack bears the trade mark signature of General Raheel Sharif who was relinquishing office that day. During his tenure as Chief of the Pakistan Army, he ensured that any possible attempt at holding talks with India were nipped in the bud through sensational terror acts using the apparatus of the Deep State.

In the instant case, Raheel Sharif killed two birds with one stone. He not only negated the offer of talks during the proposed visit of Foreign Affairs Advisor Sartaj Aziz for the Heart of Asia Conference at Amritsar but also somewhat restored his military reputation that had been dented badly after the Indian surgical strikes in September.


In fact, the expected response from Pakistan after the surgical strikes was increase in terror activities. We should have been prepared to meet this threat from our adversary.

The stark reality is that we, as a nation, are not prepared to meet the challenges posed by the hybrid threats from our adversaries. Fidayeen attacks and mass casualty terror acts like in Mumbai in 1993, 2006 and 2008 are the manifestations of hybrid war unleashed by Pakistan.


We should have woken up in 1993 and minimised, if not totally eliminated, such threats in our heartland. Alas, we didn’t and had to suffer the ignominy of 10 more such attacks in different parts of the country till we were shocked by the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai in 2008.


Sadly, we are a nation of rhetoric. Lot of noises were made after 26/11 but even today, after 8 years have elapsed, can we put our hands on our chest and say that we are fully prepared to meet such threats. If we were, incidents like Gurdaspur, Samba, Pathankot, Pampore and Nagrota would not have happened.


After the 9/11 attack, the US revamped its entire security and intelligence apparatus to ensure the safety of its citizens and went whole hog to eliminate the terror threat from its soil. It raised the Department of Homeland Security with complete mandate and wherewithal to ensure that such threat could not manifest in future and Americans could live peacefully.


The result is there for all to see. Despite several attempts, the terrorists have found it virtually impossible to penetrate the American homeland security system.

 This is how strong nations respond to the challenges of hybrid threats which manifest in the worst form of terrorism.


Regrettably, India has barely addressed the problem post-26/11 and not taken much action to ensure the safety of her citizens from these threats.


Since hybrid threats can manifest anywhere and everywhere, security becomes the responsibility of the entire society and not only that of the security forces or the government.


Security is not merely a thought process but a concept and a lifestyle which has to be understood and implemented by all citizens to make our nation secure. It can no more be treated as a routine activity.


We need to develop a ‘security culture’. Every citizen needs to imbibe security protocol. We have to get used to discomforts and inconveniences that may be caused due to implementation of security procedures.


Even those serving in various security agencies, including police, need to understand its importance and not treat it as a mere job to earn a livelihood.


A cursory look at the security personnel deployed at crowded places like bus stands, railway stations, malls, market places, religious shrines and so on will certainly raise a question in your mind if they are properly equipped, trained, geared and motivated to handle any kind of terror threat? The answer is obvious.-

BIG  ""NO""


That is why terrorists move freely on our highways and travel distances to strike at will wherever they choose to. If that was not so, how did the terrorists reach Nagrota — it is neither located on the Line of Control nor close to the International Border.

We have a plethora of agencies but they lack coordination and cooperation. Turf wars are more important to us than national security and the lives of our citizens.

To counter the challenges of hybrid threats, we need a national response. First and foremost, without wasting any more time, we need a dedicated ministry to look after our internal security. The present MHA is too big and unwieldy to address the issue and don the desired role.


We need to invest heavily in our intelligence and surveillance capabilities. They are nowhere near the optimum level. Coordination and cooperation among the plethora of agencies should form the mandate of the proposed dedicated ministry.
We also need to invest heavily in state police capability-building. From a “Danda Force”, they need to be upgraded to a force capable of acting as a first line of defence against internal threats.

Our airports, coastal areas and highways need to be made impregnable. We also need to change the habit of working in watertight compartments. A greater amount of interaction and consultation between various organs of the state responsible for national security is required. Fortunately, we are no more saddled with highly risk-averse political leadership.


Our information warfare and counter propaganda capabilities need a quantum leap so that they can penetrate deep into Pakistan to exploit the obvious fault lines in that country. At a time when we are moving rapidly towards e-governance, digital world and cashless economy, our cyber warfare capabilities need a thorough re-look and enhancement.


Last, but not the least, we should be militarily prepared for punitive and pre-emptive operations against the terrorists and their sponsors and such operations should form part of our doctrine to combat Hybrid War.

Special Forces form an important component of this doctrine and we need to focus on their capacity and capability building as well as training.


Let us all vow not only to avenge Nagrota but also ensure that it is the last such incident and no more — not through words but dedicated actions. Funds should not be a constraint because national security is paramount to create an environment of peace and development.

*Brig Anil Gupta (Retd) is a Jammu-based political commentator, columnist, security and strategic analyst. Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in

TOPICS:Foreign PolicyIndiaMilitaryPakistanSecuritySouth AsiaTerrorism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nandan Nilekani Joins Govt Committee to chart path to less- "CASH SOCIETY"

SOURCE:
http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/newsindia/nandan-nilekani-joins-govt-committee-to-chart-path-to-less-cash-society/ar-AAlicVY?li=AAggbRN&ocid=iehp





               PRELUDE : BLACK MONEY

               [ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEzcjbn8EaU ]

Nandan Nilekani Joins Govt Committee to chart path to less- "CASH SOCIETY"



Faced with chaos after eliminating India’s highest value rupee notes, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has roped in a billionaire from the ranks of his adversaries to help.

Nandan Nilekani, a high-profile member of the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party, has joined a committee to map a path to digital payments. India is trying to end its reliance on cash, especially in rural areas where almost every transaction is done in hard currency. It’s not the first time the former head of outsourcing giant Infosys Ltd has tackled a national project. He also spearheaded the country’s biometrics-based Aadhaar unique identity program.

Designed to eliminate corruption, Modi outlawed existing Rs500 and Rs1,000 notes on 8 November, which wiped out more than four-fifths of the nation’s currency and caused pain for millions, from street hawkers in the south to diamond cutters in the west. The government is trying a Plan B to salvage a situation that Credit Suisse Group AG and Deutsche Bank AG estimate will slow expansion by about 1 percentage point in the year through March.



COMPLETE COVERAGE: War on black money


Nilekani and his 13-person committee are meeting to work out how to get more Indians to adopt digital payments, via everything from their own smartphones to point-of-sale machines in local villages. While the nation has already rolled out its United Payments Interface, with hundreds of millions lacking phones or web access, a multipronged approach is needed to wean the nation of its dependence on cash.


“India has the underlying digital financial architecture in place to get this going,” Nilekani said in an interview after the committee’s first meeting. “How quickly the government can reach everyone is a question of execution and speed.”

Digital Wallets

As presses run all day to crank out new Rs500 and Rs2,000 notes, the committee featuring chief ministers of prominent Indian states as well as the India head of Boston Consulting Group met for the first time last week.

As start-ups such as Paytm, MobiKwik and Freecharge push their digital wallets to a slice of smartphone users, the committee is focusing on two key avenues: getting more merchants to accept the United Payments Interface and procuring more point-of-sale devices.

The interface, rolled out by major banks in April, makes transferring money as easy as sending a text message. With the system already in place, Nilekani says boosting acceptance of the payments interface is achievable in weeks. Getting the estimated one million new POS devices, which would almost double the number in use as of August, would take longer because of the need for a tender.


Rural Impact

“Breaking down the problem into digestible chunks is the first step to solving it,” said Nilekani, who lost a battle for a parliamentary seat in the 2014 election to a key member of Modi’s cabinet.

 Nandan Nilekani says boosting acceptance of UPI is achievable in weeks. Photo: Hemant Mishra/ Mint

India has also made it easier to make digital payments, with the central bank this week doing away with the two-step authentication process for transactions of less than Rs2,000.

The impact of the money ban, known as demonetisation, has been felt the most in the countryside, where cash is preferred for everything from buying clothes and selling produce to paying for weddings. The lack of cash notes has slammed the brakes on business in some areas.

“There is no economic activity, transactions are at a standstill,” said Srikanth Nadhamuni, chief executive officer of incubator Khosla Labs which has funded electronic payments start-up Novopay. The start-up has 40,000 micro ATMs—no more than a smartphone with a fingerprint scanner attached and sometimes a printer - at small street-corner retail outlets called kirana stores.


Adapting Technology

The committee is expected to meet again this week to look at how to approach those with limited access to technology. While India has 250 million smartphone users, there are about 350 million who only have feature phones while another 350 million don’t have a phone at all, Nilekani said.

For feature phone users, the committee recommends India’s existing retail e-payments app be adapted to technology that could be rolled out within weeks. That will be helped by lower charges, with the telecommunications regulator slashing the charges for transactions from Rs1.50 rupees to Re0.50. “Each category has to have a different strategy” said Nilekani.


Big Target

Before demonetisation, digital payments had already been projected to surge. Google and Boston Consulting Group projected India’s digital payments industry to grow to $500 billion and cover half the population only by 2020.

A financial inclusion panel hosted earlier this year by the country’s software products think tank, iSpirt laid out a four-year plan to go cashless.

“It is a big target for four years but government support can shorten the time,” said Sharad Sharma, co-founder of iSpirt and a member of the government-appointed committee. “While it cannot happen in the next few months, it will happen within this decade.”

The real challenge is the 350 million people without phones, many of whom are economically-challenged. The plan is to draw those enrolled in Aadhaar, and quickly enlist the remaining, toward micro ATMs promoted by large Indian lenders such as IDFC Bank and start-ups like Novopay which already have a presence in 130,000 village retail outlets or kirana stores.

“There is a sense of urgency,” said Nilekani. “All the strategies have to be deployed at the same time to aim for universal coverage.”