PLA MODERNIZATION - PLA : Strategic Assessment: China’s Northern Theater Command

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https://jamestown.org/program/strategic-assessment-chinas-northern-theater-command/




             PLA  MODERNIZATION



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     [ 1 ]    PLA MODERNIZATION : PLA  :China’s CENTRAL Theater   Command = "blank"                 DATA AWAITED

     [ 2 ]    PLA MODERNIZATION : PLA : Strategic Assessment:  China’s Northern Theater                      Command
              http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2017/05/pla-modernization-pla-strategic.html

     [3]     China’s Southern Theater Command 

              http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2017/03/p-l-snapshot-chinas-southern-theater.html


      [4]    PLA MODERNIZATION :Snapshot: China’s Eastern Theater Command

               http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2017/03/pla-modernization-snapshot-chinas.html

      [5]    China’s Western Theater Command
              http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2017/03/p-l-snapshot-chinas-western-theater.html

       [6]    PLA SETUP PRIOR TO MODERNIZATION
              http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/2017/04/pla-modernization-pla-setup-prior-to.html

     [7]    PLA Theater Joint Intelligence:Organization and Operations

                http://bcvasundhra.blogspot.in/search/label/PLA%20%20MODERENIZATION

            Strategic Assessment:

 China’s Northern Theater Command

      Publication: China Brief Volume: 17 Issue: 7

                            By

                   Peter Wood

May 15, 2017 

At the end of April, China’s Defense Ministry announced it would be conducting “live fire drills” near the border with North Korea (MOD, April 27). This followed weeks of rumors that the PLA was deploying in large numbers close to the Korean peninsula, which the MOD spokesperson subsequently denied (MOD, April 27). North Korean revelations of new missile types, several missile tests and histrionic response to U.S. deployment of THAAD missiles have all contributed to escalated tensions between China, the U.S. and both North and South Korea. Further emphasizing the gravity of the situation, U.S. President Donald Trump said that “we could end up in a major, major conflict” (Reuters, April 28). An examination of China’s Northern Theater Command, its military organization responsible for Northeast Asia, provides insight into China’s interests in this region, and particularly toward the Korean peninsula.

Guarding the Northern Gate

Each of China’s Theater Commands (TC) is defined by its geography and the international borders it defends. China’s Eastern Theater Command is largely focused on Taiwan. The Western TC protects China’s borders with India and guards internal stability and counter-terrorism stemming from Central Asia. The Southern TC deals with the South China Sea, and the Central TC protects Beijing and reinforces other theaters (for detailed analysis of each theater command see the following profiles in China Brief: Eastern TC, Southern TC, Western TC). The Northern Theater Command’s (NTC) role is similarly driven by geography and China’s relations with its neighbors.

The NTC covers five provinces: Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning and Shandong. Inner Mongolia is crescent shaped, and forms most of China’s northern border with Mongolia. Heilongjiang forms the northeastern-most border with Russia, and is named after the Chinese name for the Amur River (lit. Black Dragon River; 黑龙江) which separates the two countries. Jilin province forms a part of central Dongbei and the eastern half of the border with North Korea. Liaoning province curves around the Bohai gulf and touches both Hebei province (which surrounds Beijing and Tianjin) and the western half of the border with North Korea. Liaoning also includes strategic geography that connects Beijing with the rest of the northeast. This strategic geography has shaped historical events and even today dictates the deployment of some of China’s military units.

In Liaoning Province, Jinzhou controls the entrance to the northeastern end of the Shanhai Pass, part of the “Liaoxi Corridor” (辽西走廊), which connects land transportation between North China and Northeast China. The other end is protected by Shanhaiguan (山海关), a gate in the Great Wall wedged between the Khingan Mountains (大兴安岭) to the north and the Bohai Gulf to the South.

The Ming Dynasty’s defeat at Shanhaiguan in 1644 opened the path to Beijing and then into greater China, paving the way for a Qing victory. Nationalist and Communist forces fought over the same terrain during the Chinese Civil War—in particular during the Ping-Jin Campaign (平津战役), which ended with Communist control of Beijing and the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949. Even today, PLA units are deployed to protect this strategic bottleneck.

To the southeast is the Yalu River, which forms the vital western half of the border between China and North Korea. It served as a tripwire for Chinese involvement in the Korean War (or “War to Resist America and Aid [North] Korea”; 抗美援朝战争). China’s intervention in October 1950, as UN forces neared the Yalu River, changed the strategic landscape of Northeast Asia. Chinese forces, along with Soviet air cover, pushed the UN back, and after a long series of assaults and counter-assaults, concluded an armistice with both sides occupying a line roughly contiguous with the 38th parallel. As a result of the Armistice (not an end to the war), and North Korea’s military threat, the U.S. keeps 28,500 troops (or personnel) stationed in South Korea. For China, North Korea’s 1,300 km border is a major source of instability. The small, isolated country is a trafficker of methamphetamines, a source of political refugees, and origin of violence as members of the Korean army regularly cross into China to commit robberies or even murders (China Brief, January 9, 2015).

Further to the north, the Ussuri River (乌苏里江) became the subject of tensions in the 1960s. Sino-Soviet relations deteriorated in the mi-1950s, eventually culminating in a brief conflict over Zhenbao Island (Damansky Island; 珍宝岛), which had the potential to spill into a broader conflict. Declassified threat assessments indicate that U.S. policymakers closely monitored the ramp-up of forces in the area before and in the immediate aftermath of the conflict. Chinese force disposition during this period was focused on counter-attacking after a Soviet incursion along multiple axes—from the west from the Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic, a strike through Mongolia toward Beijing and a multi-pronged assault through northeast China. Reflecting a realistic view of its forces capabilities and China’s “Lure the Enemy Deep” (诱敌深入) and “Active Defense” (积极防御) strategies, China’s forces were arrayed well back from the border to take advantage of China’s strategic depth. [1] According to a declassified National Intelligence Estimate from 1973:

Peking elected not to confront the Soviet forces directly along the border; instead the Chinese have been building fortified areas in good defensive terrain well back from the border, thus compensating in part for the greater mobility and firepower of the Soviet forces. [2]

China did not change its Strategic Guidelines (战略方针) to reflect an improvement in relations with the Soviet Union until 1985. Interestingly, the concentration of forces further south, away from the border with Russia does not appear to have changed significantly since 1973. When China changed its military regions into Theater Commands at the end of 2015 it also changed the protocol order, moving the NTC from its predecessors’ position as most important, to number 4, behind the Eastern, Southern, and Western TCs, indicating that the threat from Russia has receded, just as the importance of Taiwan, the South China Sea, and China’s borders with Central Asia have increased. However, the economic importance of the area remains unchanged.

Economics

An additional element of Northeastern China’s strategic importance is its rich economic resources. The region possesses great mineral wealth. The coal industry has a major presence here, and Daqing (大庆), to the northwest of Harbin, is the site of China’s largest oil field. Its discovery in the late 1950s helped jumpstart China’s industrial economy (CNPC, [accessed May 4]). The region is also an important breadbasket (China Brief, June 1, 2016). Chinese farms run right up to the border with Russia, and Chinese investors have even purchased tracts of land within Russia, prompting Russian fears of a Chinese takeover (Moscow Times, April 14). Nevertheless, Chinese trade with Russia is rising, and in 2016 bilateral trade reached $65 billion, emphasizing the importance of border rail hubs like Suifenhe (绥芬河) (MOFCOM, January 16). The area is also vital to Chinese maritime trade, and the NTC includes or protects four of China’s top ten largest ports, including Tianjin, Tangshan, Qingdao and Dalian (Global Times, August 20, 2015). As can be seen in the map below, the 140 million Chinese people living in Northeast China are densely situated in Central Dongbei and along the shore of the Bohai Gulf. Notably, the densest areas, concentrated around Changchun, Shenyang and Dalian, are all near North Korea, and would be affected by an outbreak of violence on the Korean peninsula. The Korean Peninsula’s west coast and the river crossing at Dandong, in particular, is the primary route for trade and would be the primary axis of advance in a crisis. The NTC is tasked with protecting this vital region and its composition and deployments reflect that task.

The NTC’s Structure

While NTC units in Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin were all part of the former Shenyang Military Region (MR), units in Shandong province previously fell under the Jinan MR. Geographically split from other units in the NTC by the Bohai Gulf, Shandong’s inclusion in the NTC makes strategic sense. Particularly in a scenario involving the Korean Peninsula, or a defensive scenario involving protection of the capital region, careful interservice coordination would be necessary. In several crisis scenarios on the Korean Peninsula, moving troops from Shandong via ships and air might be necessary. Air Defenses and aviation units creating a buffer zone between Beijing and the Yellow Sea would need to coordinate units on both peninsulas.

Reflecting the need for joint coordination, the NTC’s top command structure includes members of two services. NTC Commander Song Puxuan (宋普选) is a Ground Force officer, while Commissar Fan Xiaojun (范骁骏) is from the Air Force (Pengpai, April 17). Before taking his current post,    GEN Song served in a number of important positions, including as head of China’s National Defense University and Commander of the Beijing Military Region.  LTG Fan Xiaojun’s career includes a number of notable posts, including serving as Commissar for the 15th Airborne Corps and as Director of the PLA Air Force Political and Political Work Departments (Baidu Baike, [accessed May 4]).

The PLA recently announced a further reorganization that reduced the number of Group Armies (GAs) from 18 to 13 and implemented a new numbering system (MOD, April 27). This demobilization includes the 40th GA in Jinzhou. This leaves the NTC with the 26th (now 79th) at Weifang, 16th GA (78th) in Changchun and 39th (80th) GAs in Liaoyang. While the restructuring may further change the collection of units in the NTC, this article and accompanying map will use their former designations as little additional information about the new system is available. This move, as with other aspects of the reorganization into Theater Commands, is meant to streamline command and control, demobilize ground formations equipped with older systems and eliminate unnecessary echelons (China Brief, February 4, 2016).

Ground Forces

The 39th Group Army, headquartered in Liaoyang, Liaoning, hosts a number of upgraded and advanced units. The 9th Army Aviation brigade, for example, features new Z-19 and Z-10 attack helicopters. An armored brigade is backed by at least three mechanized infantry brigades, as well as artillery and air defense brigades. A Special Operations unit is also present, one of two in the NTC. As the core of the restructured GA system in Northeast China, this large and powerful group may be greatly expanded, and have simplified command ability over the breadth of the borders with North Korea and Russia.

As a part of the former Jinan Military Region, the 26th GA in Weifang, in central Shandong province, has a lower number of well-equipped units compared to other GAs. Nonetheless, it has extensively conducted joint exercises, including amphibious landings on the Liaoning Peninsula. Three motorized brigades are present, though there is some reason to believe these are being reduced or, in one case, transferred to the Navy to form the core of a new Marine brigade (China Defense, February 15). There has been speculation that each of China’s three fleets will eventually include a Marine brigade. At least three brigade-level air defense units belonging to the army, air force, and navy are present to protect the important airspace above Qingdao and the Bohai strait. More vital areas have received larger numbers of advanced strategic Surface-to-Air Missiles (SAMs) but some, notably, an Air Force installation on an island in the center of the Bohai strait, still operate ancient HQ-2 (S-75/SA-2) SAMs.

The centrally located 16th GA, headquartered in Changchun, sits astride the important rail line that connects the southwestern and northeastern halves of Dongbei. Mechanized brigades, situated well back from the border with Russia occupy similar positions in Qiqihar and Harbin to the north. The rail and highway network nodes branching out from them allow for quick responses to incursions while maximizing China’s natural strategic depth in this area. East from Harbin the same rail lines Japan and Russia fought over more than a century ago form the primary trade link to Russia, crossing the border at Suifenhe and curving south inside Russia to the largest Russian city in the Far East, Vladivostok. An armored brigade well situated to respond to contingencies near the Russian or North Korean Border is equipped with China’s advanced Type 99 Main Battle Tank as well as the standard Type 96B.

Prior to the reorganization/reduction, the 40th GA featured mostly lightly equipped units, with motorized brigades at Chifeng, in Inner Mongolia, and Dandong, in Liaoning, but mostly concentrated at the strategic city of Jinzhou, one end of the strategic pass leading to Beijing. Importantly, it contained neither an Army Aviation nor Special Operations unit, denoting it as a low priority formation. Under the new organization, these units will likely be demobilized, or absorbed into the successor to the 39th GA. Motorized units have for some time been a focus of reductions, transfers to the People’s Armed Police, or upgrades into mechanized units. Given the strategic location, some units, such as the 5th armored brigade, are likely to remain.

While the geography and strategic tasks of the NTC require large numbers of ground forces, the Naval and Air units focused in the region are likely to take an even more prominent role in coming years.

Navy

The PLA Navy’s North Fleet, headquartered in Qingdao, is home to many of China’s most advanced systems and testbed projects. From a naval perspective, ports along the two peninsulas guard access to the Bohai Gulf. On the north side of the gulf, Dalian is a strategic, ice-free port. Port Arthur (旅顺), just up the coast, was a key objective during the 1904 Russo-Japanese war. Nuclear-energy propelled (long-distance) Han-class submarines are part of the 12th Submarine squadron (zhidui; 支队) in Dalian. China’s first indigenously produced carrier was recently launched for the first time in Dalian (navy.81.cn, April 28). To the southwest, on the southern edge of the Shandong Peninsula is Qingdao, another key trade and naval port. The Liaoning, China’s first aircraft carrier, is homeported in Qingdao. A hardened submarine pen outside Qingdao offers concealment and protection for ballistic missile submarines. Destroyer squadrons at Dalian and Qingdao round out the force and give the North Fleet powerful surface combatant capability.

Naval Aviation

Most PLA Naval Aviation units are equipped with older strike and air superiority fighters with two notable exceptions: specialized aircraft and China’s nascent carrier aviation force. NTC naval aviation includes a number of highly specialized aerial early warning, electronic warfare, signals collection and maritime surveillance aircraft based at Laiyang and Tuchengzi airbases. These aircraft regularly transit through the Miyako Strait in the East China Sea along with H-6 bombers and long-range fighters (China Brief, October 26, 2016).

Perhaps the most important naval aviation unit in the NTC is the naval aviation training base outside Xingcheng, where China trains its carrier pilots. The base features three runways, complete with ski-jumps to simulate China’s carriers, and what appear to be both steam-powered and electromagnetic catapults for future carrier variants (East Pendulum, February 17). Although China’s sole operational carrier and its embarked aviation unit are currently directly subordinate to the CMC, this unit will create the core of China’s carrier wings and pave the way for more advanced naval aviation. Though Chinese carrier aviation lags behind its American counterpart by multiple decades of experience, significant progress has been made, and more joint and live-fire training exercises are being carried out (China Brief, December 21, 2016).

Air Force

Since it plays a key role in air defense of the capital region and important bases, a number of units in the NTC are equipped with advanced fighters. The 1st Fighter Division, located near Anshan, for example, includes regiments of J-10 and J-11s. Closer to the borders with North Korea and Russia, the 21st Air Division in Qiqihar and 88th Air Brigade at Dandong, respectively, use a mix of older J-7 and J-8 aircraft. As more J-10s and other fourth-generation aircraft become available, these will likely be upgraded after air units near the border with India and the East China Sea have been completed.

Rocket Forces

Since the 1960s China’s “2nd Artillery”—now PLA Rocket Force—has played an important deterrent role in Northeast China. Although the PLA’s Rocket Forces report directly to the Central Military Commission, they would need to coordinate with the NTC units for sensor information. Conventional Rocket Forces would likely receive tasking from the NTC commander. Rocket Force Officers are deployed to each Theater command to aid with this coordination and planning. The Rocket Forces’ Base 51 is located in Shenyang. At least three launch brigades are present, though more are likely. The 810th Launch Brigade outside Dalian has DF-21 medium-range ballistic missiles, as does the 816th near Tonghua. [3] These units would be easily capable of covering the entire East China Sea and hitting targets in western Japan. U.S. forces at Yokosuka naval base near Tokyo would be within range of the 816th brigade’s DF-21s.

Internal Security

An additional concern is internal conflict in North Korea or overthrow of the Kim regime. An editorial penned in the People’s Daily under the pseudonym Zhong Sheng (钟声) (a homophone for “Voice of China”) argued that the “situation on the Korean Peninsula…is nearing collapse”. While careful not to place blame on the North, South, or U.S., the editorial made clear that action needed to be taken by North Korea to avoid deepening the problem arising from its nuclear program and that the Chinese people “..never fear any form of provocation or test” (People’s Daily, April 30).

China presumably has some analog of the U.S. OPLAN 5029, the contingency plan for a collapse of North Korea (GlobalSecurity ( http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/ops/oplan-5029.htm ) [accessed May 1]). While DPRK internal dynamics are beyond the scope of this article, the Younger Kim’s repeated use of violence against close political allies and reshuffling of top positions in the military at least suggests that some power struggles are occurring. A mass movement of North Korean civilians across the border into China is a major concern, particularly given the dense population centers not far from the border, and the economic importance of Northeast China. While details are hard to come by, China has a number of border security regiments and People’s Armed Police units that could be used to help control the situation. The following map attempts to give a sense of their numbers, locations and major border crossings.

Conclusion

Although the economy of China’s northeast has faded somewhat, it remains a core strategic area for China. History has consistently tied the northeast’s fate to that of China. Particularly with the tensions in North Korea at their highest point in the past decade, the Northern Theater Command will likely receive more attention and investment, even as China extends its military reach to the South and East.

Peter Wood is the Editor of China Brief. You can follow him on Twitter @PeterWood_PDW

Special thanks to Dennis Blasko, Kevin McCauley and Scott LaFoy who pointed out errors in earlier drafts of this piece. Any remaining omissions and errors are mine alone.

Notes

1. The Science of Military Strategy [战略学], 3rd ed., Beijing: Military Science Press [军事科学出版社], 2013, pp. 45-46.
2. National Intelligence Estimate – The Sino-Soviet Relationship: The Military Aspects September 20, 1973. Declassified March 2, 2011. CREST reference code LOC-HAK-541-7-5-8 p. 30.
3. Ref: Sean O’Connor, Ausairpower, “PLA Second Artillery Corps,” December 2009. Verified via Google Earth image April 4, 2016. http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-PLA-Second-Artillery-Corps.html#mozTocId836202 ; Jeffrey Lewis, “Chillin with the Second Artillery,” 38North, January 21, 2015. http://38north.org/2015/01/jlewis012115/

Additional References: Andreas Rupprecht, Flashpoint China: Chinese Air Power and Regional Security, Harpia, 2016.

 NTC_Report-1.pdf

 SOURCE:
http://www.eurasiareview.com/19052017-recent-tests-reveal-indias-missile-proliferation-oped/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29

India's launch of the Agni V missile. Press Information Bureau, Government of India, Wikipedia Commons.

Opinion 

What Recent Tests Reveal About India’s Missile Proliferation? 

                              By 

                     Maimuna Ashraf*

May 19, 2017

MTCR is one of the four non-proliferation regimes that aim to curb missile technology that can be used for nuclear delivery systems. The other three are the Wassenaar Arrangement that deals with export control of dual use technologies and conventional arms. The Australia Group is related to export controls on technologies with regard to chemical and biological weapons. Lastly, the Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) is a cartel of 48 countries that aims to curb proliferation of nuclear weapons.

The members participate in decision making and are expected to play their role in implementing the international standards for responsible non-proliferation behavior. It works with the International Code of Conduct against Ballistic missile proliferation (ICOC) in order to restraint the production and spread of delivery systems capable of delivering WMD.

India gained candidacy to MTCR which sets guidelines to control the production and delivery of missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles capable of mass destruction. The MTCR restricts its members to export missile or missile-related technology and systems capable of carrying a payload of at least 500 kg to a distance of at least 300 km. The decisions made in MTCR are consensus based. In past, the regime has been successful in convincing Argentina, Iraq and Egypt to give up their ballistic missile programs.

Related: Forthcoming NSG-Plenary Meeting: Prospects For Pakistan-India Candidacy – OpEd

However, India’s entry in MTCR is being proved beneficial not only for India’s space and missiles program but it is also reinforcing its import export with other states possessing sensitive technologies without any vulnerability of facing sanctions. The significant improvement is the recognition of India’s nuclear legitimacy that will strengthen its credentials. It has been the quest of Indian strategic planners to be the members of elite nuclear clubs; therefore the candidacy to MTCR may help India in its ambition to join NSG and get the permanent seat in United Nations Security Council (UNSC). The 37th Plenary meeting of NSG will be held in June this year and this is yet to see if India would bargain for its inclusion in NSG with China, which has been rejected for MTCR’s membership in 2004. As now India will be in position to help China’s inclusion in MTCR. Last year, China protested India’s membership in NSG as non-NPT state but at that time India was not the member of MTCR.

MTCR Membership Helping India’s Missile Program

              India’s Agni missile range.
     Source: Michael, Wikipedia Commons

The MTCR membership is profoundly helping in India’s missile program. Previously India was denied sophisticated missile technology due to MTCR provisions standards or sanctions. Now when all these limitations have been removed, India is extending its missile’s ranges to improve its defense and striking capabilities. Other than missiles, India is now importing surveillance drones from US, before denied due to MTCR restrictions. On the other hand, Indian approval for acquiring Arrow II theatre missile defense interceptor from Israel was facing constant delay because the acquisition was subject to US approval. The US was bound to abide by the MTCR guidelines thus despite the willingness of Israel this technology transfer could not take place. But recently, Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) announced the biggest security contact ever to supply long range air and missile defense systems.

Moreover, India’s space program was also facing setback because it was unable to export cryogenic technology from Russia. The technology was also required to expedite India’s Agni’s program and ICBM pursuit. In the next year after India joined MTCR, it successfully tested Agni-V which ranked India among few states possessing Inter Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM). India also developed capability to launch manned space missions. However the field of drone technology is being benefitted in the absence of confines after this regime’s membership and now India is looking forward to export drone’s technology from US.

Related: India’s NSG trials And Trump – Analysis

To conclude, the admission to MTCR largely proved beneficial to India in order to improve its offensive-defensive capabilities. The country is now extending its missile ranges which are helping the rationale of missile proliferation. Most of these capabilities might not be directly aimed at Pakistan yet the trend to develop variety of capabilities can allow India to adopt an aggressive strategy towards Pakistan in future. The fearsome aspect is that a debate has already been stirred up in strategic and policy circles about India reviewing its no-first policy. The signs of internal debate to reconsider nuclear posture and the acquisition of diverse along with missile proliferation will adversely impact the South Asian strategic stability.

*Maimuna Ashraf is a member of an Islamabad based think tank, Strategic Vision Institute (SVI). She works on issues related to nuclear non-proliferation and South Asian nuclear equation. Furthermore, she regularly writes for national and international dailies.

Pakistan Caught in the Middle As China’s OBOR becomes Saudi-Iranian-Indian Battleground (R)

SOURCE:
https://mideastsoccer.blogspot.in/2017/05/pakistan-caught-in-middle-as-chinas.html

            Pakistan Caught in the Middle

                                   

                                     As 

                China’s OBOR becomes

       Saudi-Iranian-Indian Battleground

                                               By

                        James M. Dorsey

Friday, May 5, 2017

Pakistani General Raheel Sharif walked into a hornet’s nest when he stepped off a private jet in Riyadh two weeks ago to take command of a Saudi-led, 41-nation military alliance. Things have gone from bad to worse since.

General Shareef had barely landed when Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman dashed the Pakistani’s hopes to include Iran in the alliance that nominally was created to fight terrorism rather than confront Iran.

The general’s hopes were designed to balance Pakistan’s close alliance with Saudia Arabia with the fact that it shares a volatile border with Iran and is home to the world’s second largest Shiite Muslim community. General Sharif’s ambition had already been rendered Mission Impossible before he landed with Saudi Arabia charging that Iran constitutes the world’s foremost terrorist threat.

In a recent interview with the Saudi-owned Middle East Broadcasting television network, Prince Mohammed, who also serves as the kingdom’s defense minister, has toughened Saudi Arabia’s stance. Prince Mohammed appeared in line with statements by a senior US military official to hold out the possibility of exploiting aspirations of ethnic minorities in Iran to weaken its Islamic regime.

In doing so, Prince Mohammed and General Joseph L. Voltel, head of US Central Command, seemed to raise the spectre of increased violence in Balochistan, a volatile, once independent region that straddles both sides of the Iranian-Pakistani border, as well as in the Iranian province of Khuzestan, the Islamic republic’s oil-rich region that is home to Iranians of Arab descent.

Ethnic and sectarian proxy wars could embroil rivals China and India in the Saudi-Iranian dispute. The deep-sea port of Gwadar in Balochistan is a lynchpin of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative, and a mere 70 kilometres from the Indian-backed port of Chabahar in Iran, viewed by Saudi Arabia as a potential threat to one of the most important sea routes facilitating the flow of oil from the Gulf to Asia.

The risk of China’s initiative as well as its regional rivalry with India becoming a Saudi-Iranian battleground appeared to increase with Prince Mohammed’s warning that the battle between the two regional powers would be fought "inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia."

In his interview, Prince Mohammed not only ruled out talks with Iran but painted the two countries’ rivalry in sectarian terms. The prince asserted that Iran, a predominantly Shiite country, believes that “the Imam Mahdi (the redeemer) will come and they must prepare the fertile environment for the arrival of the awaited Mahdi and they must control the Muslim world…. “How do you have a dialogue with this?” Prince Mohammed asked.

Saudi Arabia had already signalled its support for Iranian dissidents when last July former Saudi intelligence chief and ambassador to the United States and Britain, Prince Turki al-Faisal, attended a rally in Paris organized by the exiled People’s Mujahedin Organization of Iran or Mujahedin-e-Khalq, a militant left-wing group that advocates the overthrow of Iran’s Islamic regime and traces its roots to resistance against the shah who was toppled in the 1979 revolution. "Your legitimate struggle against the (Iranian) regime will achieve its goal, sooner or later. I, too, want the fall of the regime,” Prince Turki told the rally.

Since then, General Voltel, avoiding any reference to sectarianism, told the US Senate Armed Services Committee, that “in order to contain Iranian expansion, roll back its malign influence, and blunt its asymmetric advantages, we must engage them more effectively in the ‘grey zone’ through means that include a strong deterrence posture, targeted counter-messaging activities, and by building partner nations’ capacity… (We) believe that by taking proactive measures and reinforcing our resolve we can lessen Iran’s ability to negatively influence outcomes in the future.,” General Voltel said.

Prince Mohammed did not spell out how he intends to take Saudi Arabia’s fight to Iran, but a Saudi think tank, the Arabian Gulf Centre for Iranian Studies (AGCIS) argued in a recent study that Chabahar posed “a direct threat to the Arab Gulf states” that called for “immediate counter measures.”

Written by Mohammed Hassan Husseinbor, identified as an Iranian political researcher, the study, published in the first edition of AGCIS’ Journal of Iranian Studies, argued that Chabahar posed a threat because it would enable Iran to increase greater market share in India for its oil exports at the expense of Saudi Arabia, raise foreign investment in the Islamic republic and increase government revenues, and allow Iran to project power in the Gulf and the Indian Ocean.

Mr. Husseinbor suggested Saudi support for a low-level Baloch insurgency in Iran could serve as a countermeasure. “Saudis could persuade Pakistan to soften its opposition to any potential Saudi support for the Iranian Baluch... The Arab-Baluch alliance is deeply rooted in the history of the Gulf region and their opposition to Persian domination,” Mr. Husseinbor said.

Noting the vast expanses of Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan Province, Mr. Husseinbor went on to say that “it would be a formidable challenge, if not impossible, for the Iranian government to protect such long distances and secure Chabahar in the face of widespread Baluch opposition, particularly if this opposition is supported by Iran’s regional adversaries and world powers.”

The conservative Washington-based Hudson Institute, which is believed to have developed close ties to the Trump administration, has also taken up the theme of ethnic minorities in Iran. The institute has scheduled a seminar for later this month that features as speakers Baloch, Iranian Arab, Iranian Kurdish and Iranian Azerbaijani nationalists.

Saudi Arabia may already have the building blocks in place for a proxy war in Balochistan. Saudi-funded ultra-conservative Sunni Muslim madrassas operated by anti-Shiite militants dominate Balochistan’s educational landscape.

“A majority of Baloch schoolchildren go to madrassas. They are in better condition than other schools in Balochistan. Most madrassas are operated by Deobandis and Ahl-i-Hadith,” said one of the founders of Sipah-i-Sabaha, a virulent anti-Shiite group that is believed to enjoy Saudi and Pakistani support.

Although officially renamed Ahle Sunnah Wa Al Jamaat after Sipah was banned in Pakistan, the group is still often referred to by its original name. The co-founder, who has since left the group but maintains close ties to it, was referring to the Deobandi sect of Islam, a Saudi backed ultra-conservative, anti-Shiite movement originally established in India in the 19th century to counter British colonial rule, and Ahl-i-Hadith, the religious-political group in Pakistan with the longest ties to the kingdom.  The co-founder said the mosques funnelled Saudi funds to the militants.

The co-founder said the leaders in Balochistan of Sipah and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), a Sipah offshoot, Maulana Ramzan Mengal and Maulana Wali Farooqi, enjoyed government and military protection because their anti-Shiite sentiments made them targets for Iran. He said the two men, who maintained close ties to Saudi Arabia, travelled in Balochistan in convoys of up to ten vehicles that included Pakistan military guards. Policemen stand guard outside Mr. Mengal’s madrassa, the co-founder said.

“Ramzan gets whatever he needs from the Saudis,” the co-founder said. Close relations between Sipah and LeJ, on the one hand, and pro-government tribesmen in Balochistan complicate irregular government efforts to reign in the militants. So does the militant’s involvement in drugs smuggling that gives them an independent source of funding.

Iran has accused the United States, Saudi Arabia and Pakistani intelligence of supporting anti-Iranian militants in Balochistan, including Jundallah (Soldiers of God), an offshoot of Sipah. Jundallah, founded by Abdolmalek Rigi, a charismatic member of a powerful Baloch tribe, was one of several anti-Iranian groups that enjoyed US and Saudi support as part of US President George W. Bush’s effort to undermine the government in Tehran. 

Mr. Rigi was captured when a flight he took from the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek to Dubai was diverted at Iran’s request to Sharjah in 2010.  He was executed in Iran. Pakistani forces have at times cooperated with Iran in detaining militants, including Mr. Rigi’s brother, Abdolhamid Rigi, but have often insisted that they are overwhelmed by internal security problems, and could not prioritize securing the border with the Islamic republic. “Our policy has been consistently anti-Iran,” said Khalid Ahmad, an author and journalist who focuses on militants.

Jundullah’s US contact point in the early 2000s was reported to be Thomas McHale, a 56-year-old hard-charging, brusque and opinionated Port Authority of New York and New Jersey detective and former ironworker, who had travelled to Pakistan and Afghanistan as part of his work for a Joint Terrorism Task Force in Newark. Known for his disdain for bureaucratic restrictions, Mr. McHale maintained contact with Jundallah and members of the Rigi tribe in an off-the-books operation. 

Mr. McHale, a survivor of the 1993 attack on New York’s World Trade Towers, had made a name for himself by rescuing survivors of the 9/11 attack on the towers. He played himself in Oliver Stone’s movie, World Trade Center, in which Nicolas Cage starred as a Port Authority police officer.

Jundallah ambushed a motorcade of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2005 but failed to kill him. 

Mr. Rigi’s boyish, grinning face became as a result of the ambush the defining image of Baluch jihad in Iran. A year later, the group bombed a bus carrying Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Jundallah and associated groups such as Jaish al-Adly (Army of Justice), another Sipah offshoot, have since targeted Iranian border posts, Revolutionary Guards, police officers, convoys and Shiite mosques. 

General Sharif and Pakistan’s position were not made easier with the recent killing by Jaish al Adl militants operating from Pakistani Balochistan of ten Iranian border guards and with Iran’s expressions of displeasure with the general’s appointment as commander of the Saudi-led military alliance.

US officials insisted in Mr. McHale’s time that government agencies had not directed or ever approved Jundallah operations. The US designated Jundallah as a terrorist organization in 2010, but that did not stop Sunni Muslim militant anti-Iranian operations. In what analysts see as an indication of Saudi influence, Jaish al-Adel issues its statements in Arabic rather than Baluchi or Farsi.

In response, Iran has attacked the militants and raided villages in Balochistan. Arif Saleem, a 42-year old villager recalls being woken in the wee hours of the morning in November 2013 when bombs dropped just outside the mud walls that surround his family compound in Kulauhi, 67 kilometres from the Pakistani border with Iran. Located in a district that is an epicentre of a low-level proxy war with Iran, Kulauhi’s residents survive on subsistence farming and smuggling. “Some buildings collapsed. Luckily, none of the kids were inside those. The blast was so strong, we thought the world was ending,” said Saleem, convinced that Iranian planes from an airbase on the Iranian side of the border carried out the bombing.

The spectre of ethnic proxy wars threatens to further destabilize the Gulf as well as Pakistan. The Baloch insurgency in Pakistani Balochistan has complicated Chinese plans to develop Gwadar and forced Pakistan to take extraordinary security precautions. A stepped-up proxy war could embroil Indian-backed Chabahar in the conflict. The wars could, moreover, spread to Iran’s Khuzestan and Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province.

Writing in 2012 in Asharq Al Awsat, a Saudi newspaper, Amal Al-Hazzani, an academic who has since been dropped from the paper’s roster after she wrote positively about Israel, asserted in an op-ed entitled “The oppressed Arab district of al-Ahwaz“ that “the al-Ahwaz district in Iran...is an Arab territory... Its Arab residents have been facing continual repression ever since the Persian state assumed control of the region in 1925... It is imperative that the Arabs take up the al-Ahwaz cause, at least from the humanitarian perspective.” Other Arab commentators have since opined in a similar fashion.

Fuelling ethnic tensions risks Iran responding in kind. Saudi Arabia has long accused Iran of instigating low level violence and protests in its predominantly Shiite oil-rich Eastern Province as well as being behind the brutally squashed popular revolt in majority Shiite Bahrain and intermittent violence since. Rather than resolving conflicts, a Saudi-Iranian war fought with ethnic and religious proxies threatens to escalate violence in both the Gulf and South Asia.

Dr. James M. Dorsey is a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, co-director of the University of Würzburg’s Institute for Fan Culture, and the author of The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer blog, a book with the same title, Comparative Political Transitions between Southeast Asia and the Middle East and North Africa, co-authored with Dr. Teresita Cruz-Del Rosario and three forthcoming books, Shifting Sands, Essays on Sports and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa as well as Creating Frankenstein: The Saudi Export of Ultra-conservatism and China and the Middle East: Venturing into the Maelstrom.