Tuesday, March 24, 2020

SER 03 OF X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases) :- Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19)

SOURCE :
https://www.globalsecurity.org/security/ops/hsc-scen-3-coronavirus.htm

INDEX
SER 12  (D)  OF X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases) VIRUS WAR

SER 12  (C)  OF X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases) VIRUS WAR


 SER 12  (B)  OF X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)  VIRUS WAR
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/04/ser-12-b-of-x-serials-infectious.html
SER 12  (A)  OF X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)  VIRUS WAR
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/04/ser-12-of-x-serials-infectious-diseases_16.html
SER  11  OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)


SER 09  OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/04/save-lives-ready-shovels.html

 SER 08   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-impossible-ethics-of-pandemic-triage.html

SER 07   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/04/how-it-will-end.html
 SER 06 ( B )   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)

 SER 06 (A )   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
SER 05   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)



SER 04 / (C)   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/ser-04-c-of-x-serials-infectious_27.html


 SER 04 / (B)   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/2019-2020-cornavirus-pandemic_26.html


 SER 04 / (A)   OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/2019-2020-cornavirus-pandemic.html

 SER 03 OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/novel-coronavirus-covid-19.html

 SER 02 OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/history-in-crisis-lessons-for-covid-19.html

 SER 01 OF   X SERIALS (Infectious Diseases)
https://bcvasundhra.blogspot.com/2020/03/infectious-diseases-infectious-diseases.html



       Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) 

                              By


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A respiratory illness caused by a novel (new) coronavirus was first identified in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China in January 2020. By 09 February 2020 Chinse sources were using the term novel coronavirus pneumonia (NPC) for the disease. 2019nCoV was renamed COVID-19 by WHO on 11 February 2020. Official names were announced for the virus responsible for COVID-19 (previously known as “2019 novel coronavirus”) and the disease it causes. The official name for the disease is "coronavirus disease (COVID-19)" and the name of the virus is "severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)". Viruses, and the diseases they cause, often have different names. For example, HIV is the virus that causes AIDS. People often know the name of a disease, such as measles, but not the name of the virus that causes it (rubeola). From a risk communications perspective, using the name SARS can have unintended consequences in terms of creating unnecessary fear for some populations, especially in Asia which was worst affected by the SARS outbreak in 2003.
More than 100,000 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus disease had been reported globally as of 07 March 2020, World Health Organization (WHO) spokesperson Tarik Jasarevic said. Among those 101,827 confirmed infections before 6 a.m. CET (0500 GMT) Saturday, 3,484 patients have died, he said.
World Health Organization (WHO) stated 11 March 2020 "WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction. We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic". The WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus urged all countries to activate and scale up emergency response mechanisms. "This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual must be involved in the fight," he stressed.
This outbreak began in early December 2019 and continued to grow. Within a few weeks the new coronavirus had resulted in thousands of confirmed cases in China, and hundreds of deaths, with additional cases had been identified in a growing number of other international locations, including the United States. But these early numbers were small relative to seasonal flu, which is expected to kill 50,000 people in the year 2020 in the United States alone.
While considerable uncertainty surrounded this incident, there are at least two reasons for concern about this outbreak. Unlike the SARS coronavirus, which produced a high fever soon after infectoin, it was suspected that carriers of the novel coronavirus could infect others for many days [possibly up to two weeks] before showing any symptoms. The diagnostic fever of SARS facilitated containment, which would not be possible with the novel coronavirus. The coronavirus can survive for five days maximum on smooth surfaces under suitable circumstances, according to experts from China's Health Commission.
Second, the contagiousness and deadliness of the novel coronavirus are similar to the Spanish Flu, a pandemic which killed some 50,000,000 people in the year 1918. The case specific mortality rate for the novel coronavirus was about 2%, ten times that of seasonal flu, but the age specific mortality rate for elderly patients with compromised immune systems [eg, diabetes], appeared to be much higher, possibly approaching the 10% rate of SARS. The epidemic is doubling every 6.4 days. In sum, the novel coronavirus may be difficult to contain, with catastrophic consequences.
But many health care officials were optimistic that such worst case outcomes can be avoided. Chinese officials expressed confidence that under the government's organizational arrangements, the epidemic would be brought under control by mid-February 2020. Zhongshan Nan, a Chinese expert on new coronavirus infection, said 02 February 2010 that after China has adopted a series of severe epidemic prevention and control measures, the epidemic is expected to reach its peak in the next 10 days to two weeks, but he also warned against relaxing vigilance. On 07 February 2020 the World Health Organization (WHO) said it would be impossible to determine an inflection point. WHO spokesperson Tarik Jašarevic said, "At this stage, it is not possible to predict the spread of the virus as this is a new disease with many unknowns."
As of 20 February, 2114 of the 55,924 laboratory confirmed cases had died (crude fatality ratio [CFR2 ] 3.8%) (note: at least some of whom were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease). Individuals at highest risk for severe disease and death include people aged over 60 years and those with underlying conditions such as hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory disease and cancer. Patients who reported being retirees had the highest CFR at 8.9%. While patients who reported no comorbid conditions had a CFR of 1.4%, patients with comorbid conditions had much higher rates: 13.2% for those with cardiovascular disease, 9.2% for diabetes, 8.4% for hypertension, 8.0% for chronic respiratory disease, and 7.6% for cancer.
During a press conference Feb. 26, Donald Trump downplayed the 2019 coronavirus’s threat to the United States - "This is a flu. This is like a flu.". At one point, Trump said the virus might not hit the United States. Trump claimed that 15 Americans had contracted the new virus, even though the CDC's total count was then at 60. Trump insisted that the number of cases in the United States is "going very substantially down, not up." Trump said the United States is "rapidly developing a vaccine" for the coronavirus and would "essentially have a flu shot for this in a fairly quick manner."
“We are totally prepared,” Trump said at his campaign rally. “The press is in hysteria mode.” Donald Trump Jr., one of Trump's sons, accused members of the Democratic Party of wanting the coronavirus to kill “millions of people,” which he told Fox News Channel was a “new level of sickness” among opposition politicians.
Donald Trump accused Democrats of a new “hoax” over criticism of his handling of the coronavirus threat. “They're doing everything they can to instill fear in people, and I think it's ridiculous, and I think they're very disreputable,” he told reporters. "They tried the impeachment hoax. ... This is their new hoax,'' Trump said of Democratic denunciations of his administration's coronavirus response. Trump called for the media and politicians “not do anything to incite a panic because there's no reason to panic at all.” Trump said, “If you’re healthy, you’ll probably go through a process and you’ll be fine.” Other health officials stressed that they expect most of the of COVID-19 fatalities will be older people with existing serious health problems.
Investors did not regard it as a hoax. By 27 February 2020 US stock prices dropped for sixth straight session in a rout that wiped out nearly $5 trillion in value, with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 10 percent from highs achieved earlier in the month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 1,191 points -- the largest single-day drop in history - a 4% single-day decline on the value of the stocks on the list. Terminal operations in Chinese ports were not going smoothly because truck drivers and port workers were missing. Container ships' round trips through Chinese ports were being increasingly cancelled because of low load levels. Crews were not being swapped in China. Saudi Arabia temporarily suspended entry for individuals seeking to perform Umrah pilgrimage in Mecca or visiting the Prophet's Mosque in Madina.
The Trump administration barred a top US disease expert from speaking freely to the public after he warned the coronavirus might be impossible to contain. The Trump administration has barred Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), from speaking publicly about the novel coronavirus without approval. Among the first steps Pence took was to institute measures to coordinate messaging, which would require top officials to seek clearance before making public statements on the illness.
Trump persisted 02 March 2020 in making false assurances about U.S. preparedness for the coronavirus outbreak and the prospects for a quick vaccine, or even cure. “We’re talking about a vaccine. Maybe a cure is possible. But we’re talking about a vaccine and they’re moving along very quickly, all of the pharmaceutical companies, are moving along very quickly.” [remarks before a meeting with Colombian President Iván Duque] The U.S. may have a vaccine “relatively soon” and “something that makes you feel better ... sooner” [evening rally in North Carolina].
The coronavirus outbreak in Iran became a source of controversy, following the disclosure by an Iranian parliament member that 50 people have died from the virus solely in the city of Qom. Iran’s health ministry insisted on 24 February 2020 that only 12 people have died from the virus in the entire country. At least four senior government officials announced that they tested positive for the virus. The first was Iran’s deputy minister of health, Iraj Harirchi, coming after a news conference where he looked sweaty and unwell. The second is prominent member of parliament, Mahmoud Sadeghi. The third is Masoumeh Ebtekar, a vice president in the Islamic Republic and a spokeswoman for the 1979 Islamic revolutionary hostage-takers. Mojtaba Zonnouri, a hard-line cleric from Qom who also serves in parliament, posted a video online acknowledging he had been infected. A total of four Iranian lawmakers tested positive for the coronavirus as the rapid spread of the outbreak forced the cancellation of Friday Prayers in many mosques across the country.
                  Wuhan Medical Center Hospital Doctor Li Wenliang and eight other medical staff disclosed the novel coronavirus epidemic in WeChat at the end of December 2019. On New Year's Day, Wuhan police summoned them, and accused them of distributing false information. At that time, Li Wenliang signed and printed his handprint at the request of the police. About 20 days later, the official acknowledged for the first time that the new type of pneumonia was indeed transmitted from some people. Dr. Li Wenliang contracted the virus while treating patients, and his death was confirmed 07 February 2020.
By late February 2020 at least 760 million people were locked down in China according to a New York Times analysis of government announcements in provinces and major cities. That's more than half the country’s population. After authorities extended the Lunar New Year holiday by 10 days in an attempt to contain the new coronavirus outbreak that had killed more than 900 people and infected more than 40,000, most provinces in China ended the official holiday on Monday 10 February 2020. According to the notice issued by the State Council, only the "businesses essential to the welfare of the general population" are allowed to reopen. Amid concerns of a potential uptick in cases as people return to work, the official ending of the holiday did not lead to the widespread reopening of businesses as the entire country remained on high alert. Across China, large companies extended their holiday until February 17 as well. However, the majority of the workforce in China is employed in informal sectors, such as construction. Many of those workers struggled since their daiy income dried up and are anxiously waiting to return to work.
Chongqing and Chengdu were two of the urban centers to join a list of approximately 80 which have put the entire city under effective lockdown. In addition to restricting the movement of residents, some cities have closed themselves off to arrivals.
The World Health Organization (WHO) declared the new coronavirus an international emergency on 30 January 2020 but held off on recommending restrictions on the movement of people. The UN health agency praised "China's aggressive containment effort". The World Health Organization, which faced criticism for initially downplaying the virus threat, revised its risk assessment after crisis talks in Geneva. "Our greatest concern is the potential for the virus to spread to countries with weaker health systems," said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The United States told its citizens not to travel to China in the first major response to the WHO's declaration of a global emergency. The State Department in Washington raised it warning alert to the highest level, telling US citizens not to travel to China because of the epidemic which has now spread to more than 20 nations.




The Diamond Princess cruise ship was quarantined off the Japanese port of Yokohama on 03 February 2020 after reports that one of the passengers had the new type of coronavirus. The Diamond Princess, operated by a US company, departed from Yokohama on January 20th. Its 16-day itinerary featured stops in Kagoshima, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Taiwan, and Okinawa. The original passenger manifest included 2,666 travelers from 56 countries and regions and 1,045 crewmembers. The health authorities say about half are Japanese nationals.

A total of 20 people aboard Carnival Japan’s Diamond Princess had been diagnosed with the virus since it arrived at the port city of Yokohama. The vessel and its 3,700 passengers and crew members have been quarantined after a passenger who disembarked after the ship docked in Hong Kong late last month tested positive for the virus. The number of people infected with novel coronavirus on board the cruise ship quarantined off the Japanese coast had risen from 20 to 61, Japan's NHK broadcaster reported 07 February 2020 citing the Ministry of Health. According to the outlet, passengers and crew members who showed symptoms such as fever, or were in close contact to others who were infected, were tested for the virus. Those newly infected will be transported to medical institutions in Tokyo, Saitama, Chiba, and Shizuoka Prefectures, as well as Kanagawa Prefecture. Japan's Health Minister Katsunobu Kato advised that the ship would be quarantined for two weeks, and all passengers would be required to remain on board. There were some 3,700 people on board the vessel, including 2,666 guests and 1,045 crew members, according to Princess Cruises. Passengers could not leave their cabins for any reason, and that all food would be delivered by the ship’s crew.

The huge vessel moored in Yokohama near Tokyo was easily the biggest coronavirus cluster outside the Chinese epicentre, with 621 positive cases confirmed among the passengers and crew. On 19 February 2020, 443 passengers disembarked from the ship after testing negative for the COVID-19 virus and not showing symptoms during a 14-day quarantine period. The complete removal of the passengers was expected to take at least three days. A specialist in infectious diseases at Kobe University rocked the boat with a video slamming "completely chaotic" quarantine procedures onboard, in rare criticism from a Japanese official. "The cruise ship was completely inadequate in terms of infection control," said Kentaro Iwata in videos he has since deleted, saying "there is no need to discuss this further".
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said foreign passengers on another ship carrying about 2,000 people will not be allowed to enter Japan. Abe said virus-infected passengers may be on board, while the operator of Holland America’s Westerdam denied anyone was infected. The ship is currently near Ishigaki, an island of Okinawa. About 3,600 passengers are stuck aboard another ship remains off the Hong Kong's coast, with three cases on board.
Taiwan announced it was banning all international cruise ships from docking at the island.
Donald Trump was a loud, xenophobic, anti-science critic of the 2014 Ebola response (calling Pres. Obama a "dope" and urging him to leave behind in Africa any Americans who contracted the disease). His instincts seemed wrong for the novel coronavirus challenge -- and his distrust of government experts was paricularly worrisome. In July 2018, President Trump reversed President Obama's decision (made after the Ebola epidemic) to create a special unit within the National Security Council to address such issues; Trump disbanded this team. Congress also had not kept up with key investments in research and preparedness. The special hospital network set up in 2014 to deal with challenges like the coronavirus was set to run out of money in May 2020.


Influenza vaccine can prevent illness in approximately 70-90% of healthy people aged less than 65 years. Among elderly people living outside of nursing homes or similar chronic-care facilities, influenza vaccine is 30-70% effective in preventing hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza. Among elderly persons residing in nursing homes, the vaccine can be 50-60% effective in preventing hospitalization or pneumonia and 80% effective in preventing death.

During seasons when the flu vaccine viruses are similar to circulating flu viruses, flu vaccine has been shown to reduce the risk of having to go to the doctor with flu by 40 percent to 60 percent. Some people may experience flu like symptoms despite getting vaccinated is that they may have been exposed to a flu virus that is very different from the viruses the vaccine is designed to protect against. The ability of a flu vaccine to protect a person depends largely on the similarity or “match” between the viruses selected to make the vaccine and those spreading and causing illness. There are many different flu viruses that spread and cause illness among people.

For everything that virologists have learned about rhinoviruses — the cause of the majority of colds — they have not invented a vaccine for them. The development of vaccines for the common cold has been difficult because of antigenic variability of the common cold virus and the indistinguishable multiple other viruses and even bacteria acting as infective agents. There is uncertainty regarding the efficacy and safety of interventions for preventing the common cold in healthy people. Rhinoviruses are a wily foe. They’ve evolved into many different forms, and so antibodies to one form (known as a serotype) usually don’t work against any others.

Some types of rhinovirus can invade deep into the lungs. Many cases of childhood pneumonia turn out to be caused by rhinoviruses. Rhinoviruses are especially dangerous for people who already have certain chronic disorders such as asthma, cystic fibrosis, or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Even a mild cold can trigger runaway inflammation in their lungs. It turns out that the majority of asthma attacks are brought on by rhinoviruses.

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