Monday, December 19, 2016

New Army Chief Has What the Govt Wants : Nuts-and-Bolts Experience

SOURCE:
https://www.thequint.com/opinion/2016/12/18/bipin-rawat-new-army-chief-has-what-government-wants-operational-experience-syed-ata-hasnain-defence

















 New Army Chief Has What            the Govt Wants

: Nuts-and-Bolts Experience









For a change, the appointment of the Indian Army Chief is drawing as much attention within India as did the appointment of the Pakistan Army Chief.


That was just three weeks ago. Coincidentally, both the new Chiefs Gen Qamar Bajwa of Pakistan and Gen (Designate) Bipin Rawat were both brigade commanders of their respective contingents with the United Nations Peacekeeping Operations in Congo in 2008-9, although they did not serve together.

Snapshot
Click here to collapse
  • Traditionally, the selection of the Army Chief follows the seniority route
  • The NDA Government to that extent has tried to change this by going deeper in the selection of the Army Chief
  • Perhaps the Government felt that the threats of the time demanded someone like Gen Bipin Rawat









Justifying Gen Rawat’s elevation is not too difficult. While all three General Officers have a comparable record, Gen Rawat’s experience is almost entirely in the operational domain of asymmetric warfare – the crux of hybrid threats that abound today. Besides being a Sword of Honour winner at the IMA, he attended the US Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth.
He was the Commander of the Indian Brigade in the Congo under the UN flag. His command assignments have all been in the operational environment. A company commander at Uri on the LoC, battalion commander at Kibithu on the Line of Actual Control or LAC, and brigade/sector commander with Rashtriya Rifles in the high octane Sopore sector.
In 2011 when I was presented with the prospect of having a new General Officer Commanding in Baramulla, one of my most crucial divisions and the one which I too commanded, I had no hesitation in asking for then Maj Gen Bipin Rawat by name. Army HQ relented and therefore he worked closely with me, displaying an outstanding understanding of J&K.
Even today he is fondly remembered by the people in all the areas he has served. He went on to be the Head of operations at HQ Eastern Command and then commanded the Corps at Dimapur.
It is he who launched the force that raided the NSCN (K) camps along the border with Myanmar in early July 2016. He was appointed GOC-in-C Southern Command early in 2016 and then brought to Army HQ as Vice Chief of the Army Staff in Aug 2016.











It is the prerogative of the government of the day to perceive threats to national security and decide how they are to be met. If one of the ways of doing that is perceived as the requirement of a nuts-and-bolts experienced commander at the head of the Army, then one can’t find fault with that.
2016 has not been a particularly good year from the National Security perspective and the Army too has suffered more casualties than it has in the last eight years.
Arresting this and developing options to take the battle to the adversary's mind and domain is a priority the government has decided to follow.
For that, an Army Chief experienced in these domains will be an asset. In the same breath I may mention that senior officers of the Indian Army are quite capable of functioning in diverse environment and threats with necessary advice and support.
It’s just perhaps that the Government felt that the threats of the time demanded someone like Gen Bipin Rawat, and the decision of the Government needs to be respected.
(The writer is a veteran Lieutenant General, who commanded the Srinagar based 15 Corps. He is now associated with Vivekanand International Foundation and the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies. The views expressed above are of the author’s own )















CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA : The Fall Of Aleppo – Analysis

SOURCE:
http://www.eurasiareview.com/19122016-the-fall-of-aleppo-analysis/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+eurasiareview%2FVsnE+%28Eurasia+Review%29











         

The Fall Of Aleppo – Analysis

                      By

             Aron Lund





In a rapid offensive lasting less than a month, forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have recaptured the last opposition enclave in east Aleppo. On Monday evening, the army cleared street after street as artillery and air strikes pounded rebel positions northeast of Ramouseh district. By midnight, only a tiny speck of territory remained in opposition hands and celebratory gunfire lit the darkened skies over west Aleppo. On Tuesday evening, finally, news came of a deal brokered by Russia and Turkey that would see the remaining rebel fighters evacuate to opposition-held territory outside Aleppo, while civilians were to remain in the city under government control.

The collapse of the east Aleppo pocket marks the end of a four-and-a-half year struggle for control over northern Syria’s largest city, often referred to as the country’s industrial and economic capital.
To al-Assad loyalists, this is a great victory. In an email interview, a source close to the government in Damascus spoke of Aleppo’s “liberation from terror groups”, saying that the restoration of army control would “allow the hundreds of thousands of displaced persons to return to east Aleppo”.
There is clearly a sense of relief among government loyalists in Aleppo, who feel that their city may finally be on the path back to normality. On Monday night, the state broadcaster al-Ekhbariya ran loops of footage from street celebrations in pouring rain, where young men fired in the air and honked their car horns as television anchors handed out chocolates.
But to the Syrian opposition, the fall of east Aleppo is a political disaster that threatens to sap morale and undermine international support for the uprising. Yet opposition representatives struck a defiant tone.
“We can’t ignore the fact that the revolutionaries in Syria have been left alone to face a large group of enemies, including the regime, Hezbollah, Iran, Russia, the militias, and Iraq,” Omar Mushaweh, a Turkey-based leader of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, told IRIN in an online interview.
But, like other opposition sympathisers interviewed, Mushaweh gave no hint of wanting to surrender. Indeed, with the al-Assad government’s own weaknesses demonstrated by its recent loss of Palmyra to the self-declared Islamic State, no one is under any illusions: the war will go on.

Civilians at Risk

Beyond the political consequences, however, recent events in Aleppo mark the brutal conclusion to four years of human suffering. To Syrians with friends and family in the collapsing rebel enclave, the past weeks have been a nightmare. All through Monday and Tuesday, desperate messages and pleas for help trickled out from east Aleppo through private contacts and social media. Though many civilians had already managed to flee into government-held western Aleppo, the last days of the enclave saw tens of thousands of people thronging the streets.
“People are moving around and fleeing as they can in a very volatile situation, as front lines continue to shift on a daily basis,” Linda Tom, a spokeswoman for the UN’s emergency aid coordination body, OCHA, told IRIN in an emailed comment on Saturday. Tom estimated that more than 40,000 civilians had already been displaced at that point, with a further 100,000 still in rebel-held territory, though she stressed that all figures were uncertain.*
Médecins Sans Frontières has called the fall of east Aleppo one of the worst crises they have seen in years. For some of the displaced civilians, fleeing meant risking everything – not only their lives, but also their homes.
Though the Syrian government claims to welcome and protect civilians fleeing eastern Aleppo, many pro-regime militias are poorly organised and undisciplined, and they have a history of looting and destroying abandoned property. Even the governor of Aleppo, Brigadier-General Hussein Diab, recently complained about the waves of looting that tend to follow every successful army offensive in Aleppo.
Though the UN has reported allegations that rebel groups forcibly prevented civilians from leaving in an attempt to use them as human shields, UN officials have also received reports that military-age men are being arrested after crossing into west Aleppo. Indeed, many civilians in the rebel zone seem to have held off fleeing to government territory until they simply had no other choice. “They have been killing us for so long, why would they have mercy?” one resident told the Washington Post.
The Syrian government is eager to deny any such abuses.
“Men of military age leaving the east are being checked and having their details taken down as part of the amnesty and reconciliation process,” a Syrian colonel working for the man running military operations in Aleppo, Lieutenant-General Ziad al-Saleh, said in a statement provided to IRIN by an intermediary. The colonel stated that those guilty of “severe criminality” will be tried and judged, but insisted that “the state is open to these people returning to their normal lives”.
Indeed, as much as they may want to completely crush the opposition and avenge themselves on rebel fighters, al-Assad’s men seem to realise that a softer touch is in their interest. Aleppo will be seen as a major test case for the government’s strategy of imposing local truces and forcing the evacuation of rebel fighters to peripheral regions like Idlib, as al-Assad shores up control over central Syria and major cities elsewhere.
Nevertheless, as the rebel pocket finally collapsed on Monday and Tuesday, opposition media filled up with references to Srebrenica 1995 and Rwanda 1994, even to the Holocaust. These claims were not backed up by reporting and even overtly pro-rebel media channels had, at the time of writing, produced no evidence of anything remotely similar to these atrocities. According to a spokesperson, the UN had received reports about the killing of 82 civilians at the hands of pro-al-Assad forces on Tuesday. As horrifying as that is, it is no genocide.
That said, the fears of opposition sympathisers in the city are real. Other deaths may have gone unreported and at this point no one is quite sure whether the evacuation deal will hold or what the future will bring. With no outside monitoring of the situation or of the conduct of al-Assad’s forces, there are great and legitimate concerns about the mistreatment of prisoners and vulnerable civilian populations. This gruesome chapter in Syria’s history is still being written.
A note on the population statistics  Throughout the conflict, the number of civilians in rebel-held eastern Aleppo has been hotly disputed. Until the rebel stronghold finally collapsed, the United Nations had put the number of people in the east city at 250,000-275,000. After the attack began, most UN estimates seemed to add up to around 140,000 civilians. On 9 December, I was told by UN OCHA spokesperson Russell Geekie that in the absence of definite information it would be premature to conclude that the UN number had been too high, though Geekie acknowledged that preliminary figures did seem to point in that direction. During my most recent visit to Damascus in October and November, Syrian officials provided wildly varying estimates that ranged from 97,000 people (according to Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem) to 200,000 people (according to al-Assad). On December 11, a Damascus-based source close to the Syrian government insisted, in an email interview, that the UN has allowed itself to be misled by opposition activists and told me that in a final count the total number of civilians in eastern Aleppo “will not exceed 100,000.”

ABOUT THE AUTHOR






IRIN
IRIN
IRIN is an independent, non-profit media organization. IRIN delivers unique, authoritative and independent reporting from the frontlines of crises to inspire and mobilise a more effective humanitarian response.

Saturday, December 17, 2016

INDO PAK WAR 1971 : India, Pakistan and the 1971 War POWs

SOURCE:
http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/india-pakistan-and-the-1971-war-pows/



India, Pakistan and the 1971 War POWs

                                     By

                            







The Indian government is coming under 
pressure to lobby Pakistan fopressure to lobby Pakistan for the release of 54 
missing prisoners of war, held since the 1971 
conflict. While 90,000 Pakistani troops were 
captured by the Indian Army at the end of the 
war, and then released as part of the Simla peace 
agreement, 54 Indian soldiers, officers and pilots 
continued to be held by Pakistan.

Four and a half decades on, two British human 
rights lawyers are taking a case to the Supreme 
Court in Delhi on behalf of the missing men’s 
families. Successive Indian governments have 
done little to recover their missing military 
personnel – perhaps for fear of rocking an 
already fragile relationship between the two 
countries. The families are now hoping the 
Supreme Cor urt judge will rule that the case be 
handed over for independent arbitration by the 
International Courts of Justice, a body backed by 
the United Nations Security Council.

The families have approached both the United 
Nations and the International Committee for the 
Red Cross in their four-and-a-half decade 
campaign, but neither body was able to offer 
assistance.


Pakistan completely denied holding the 
prisoners until 1989, when then Prime Minister 
Benazir Bhutto finally told visiting Indian 
officials that the men were in custody. Years 
later, Pervez Musharraf would go back on this, 
formally denying their existence while he was in 
office. Long periods of denial, with occasional 
but short-lived reversals in admitting culpability, 
have made the job of Indian officials lobbying for 
release much harder. The prisoners are believed 
to have been discussed at the latest meeting 
between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and 
Nawaz Sharif in Ufa, Russia.


Captured Alive

There is compelling evidence to suggest the men 
were captured alive.


In 1972, Time Magazine published a photo 
showing one of the men behind bars in Pakistan. 
His family believed he had been killed the year 
before, but instantly recognized him.

The same year, a photo of another captured 
infantry officer was published by a local paper. It 
appeared to have been taken inside a Pakistani 
prison and smuggled out.


In her biography of Benazir Bhutto, British 
historian Victoria Schoffield reported that a 
Pakistani lawyer had been told that Kot Lakhpat 
prison in Lahore was housing Indian prisoners 
of war “from the 1971 conflict.” They could be 
heard screaming from behind a wall, according 
to an eyewitness account from within the prison.

Pakistani media outlets have also alluded to the 
men’s existence. The shooting down of Wing 
Commander Hersern Gill’s Mig 21 on December 
13, 1971 was followed that day by a radio 
broadcast, in which a military spokesperson 
claimed that an “ace Indian pilot” had been 
captured. Gill had led a four-plane sortie into 
Pakistani territory, but the planes had missed 
their targets. Returning to Indian airspace, Gill 
suddenly turned back to take another run, alone.

Once back in Pakistani territory, and closing in 
on his target, he was shot down by ground fire, 
but according to Indian Air Force sources, he 
may have managed to glide to a safe landing. 
Shortly after that, he appears to have been 
captured.

An American general, Chuck Yeager, also 
revealed in an autobiography that during the 
1971 war, he had personally interviewed Indian 
pilots captured by the Pakistanis. The airmen 
were of particular interest to the Americans 
because, at the height of the Cold War, the men 
had attended training in Russia and were flying 
Soviet designed and manufactured aircraft.

The families also claim that on the only two 
occasions when the Pakistani authorities have 
allowed them to visit Pakistani jails, prison 
guards privately attested to the men being alive – 
before more senior Pakistani officials ushered 
the relatives away.

One family member speaking to The 
Diplomat described these tours as “a sham,” 
saying they were carefully stage managed. The 
family member suspected the prisoners had been 
moved so as not to be discovered. A separate 
testimony from a released prisoner-of-war 
describes the prisoners being moved regularly 
between seven separate prisons, while another 
witness claims the men were at one point held in 
secret cells under Bahawalnagar Airport.


Behind Closed Doors
It took until 1978 for the Indian authorities to 
finally publish a list of the missing. The approach 
of the government since has generally been to 
negotiate behind closed doors and make limited 
announcements to the media.

A letter from the Indian ambassador in 
Islamabad, dated March 1984 and seen by The 
Diplomat, advises a family member: “We have to 
continue our efforts in a discrete fashion 
because any premature publicity can harm our 
overall cause.” Further memos circulated by the 
Islamabad embassy, also seen by The Diplomat
claim high-level conversations have taken place 
privately on a number of occasions, always 
instigated by Indian officials, but the Pakistani 
government continues to officially deny the 
men’s existence, making progress difficult. A 
memo between Prime Minister Indira Gandhi 
and her ambassador in Islamabad suggests the 
matter was being discussed behind closed doors, 
yet it is hard to know how seriously the Indians 
were actually pushing for release, as the minutes 
were private.

Still, the families remain disappointed with the 
Indian government’s performance.

“They should have been released when the 
90,000 Pakistanis were released,” says Rajwant 
Kaur, sister of one of the missing. She 
remembers her brother flying low over their 
house close by to the military airfield, and him 
dropping her at the airport as she flew to meet 
her new husband in the United Kingdom. That 
was the last time she saw him. He had 
volunteered to do a third operational tour. “He 
didn’t need to go again,” Kaur remembers. “I’m 
very angry at the Indian government,” she adds, 
claiming they simply “hadn’t bothered” to secure 
the release of their own men when hostilities 
ended.

Analysts have mixed views on what impact the 
Supreme Court case could have on relations — 
currently overshadowed by terror attacks, and 
the release on bail of a Taliban leader thought to 
have orchestrated the deadly Mumbai shootings. 
Last month, Khalistani separatists launched a 
terrorist attack in Punjab province, with many 
Indians believing the attacks were supported by 
the Pakistani intelligence services.

Harsh Pant, a leading scholar in international 
relations at Kings College London’s India 
Institute, sees the missing prisoners of war as an 
opportunity for reconciliation.

“The relationship has been in limbo for a long 
time, and there is now an appetite both from 
Prime Ministers Modi and Sharif to try and move 
things forward. The PoWs case probably won’t 
change realities on the ground too much, but it 
could change public perceptions of the talks and 
help build confidence,” he argues, adding that 
Pakistan had probably held back the prisoners as 
political leverage. “It’s a humanitarian case, so 
it’s very unseemly of both governments.”

‘Pregnant With Dereliction’

Raoof Hasan, executive president of the Regional 
Peace Institute in Islamabad, which conducts 
civil society diplomacy efforts between the two 
countries, was damning of both governments, 
saying the virtual silence over four and a half 
decades was “pregnant with dereliction.” He 
argued the Indian government had failed in their 
duty to retrieve the personnel, but is skeptical 
that even with an International Court of Justice 
ruling, the case would move forward, saying 
Pakistan had already shown itself willing to 
“violate international norms.”

“Any new outcomes would be hugely 
embarrassing for both; nevertheless the best 
course remains back-channel efforts,” Hasan 
told The Diplomat, adding that his organization 
would now be offering its support to try and 
broker a deal.

“Taking the case to the International Court of 
Justice is a good idea,” says Zubair Ghouri, a 
Pakistan security analyst and author of The 
Media-Terrorism Symbiosis: A Case Study of the 
Mumbai Attacks. Like Hasan, Ghouri believes 
that “with recent events, this is not an issue that 
could be brought up in front-line diplomacy, but 
it could still be sorted out via back channels.”


“The 1971 war is still taken very seriously,” 
Ghouri explains. “Simla was a humiliating 
agreement Pakistan was forced to sign. If there is 
any truth to the PoW claims, the Pakistani 
government may be engaged.”

Maroof Raza, editor of Fauji India magazine and 
a leading Indian defense analyst, says the release 
of the prisoners would be “a great humanitarian 
gesture” by Pakistan, but believes it would not 
help improve relations — thanks to bad blood 
over the Kargil War and Mumbai attacks.


“To improve any relations,” Raza told The 
Diplomat, the Pakistani polity has to “show 
definite intent in containing cross-border 
terrorism by its so-called non-state actors.”

Key witnesses giving evidence to the Supreme 
Court trial, who can’t be named for legal reasons, 
told The Diplomat they have already been 
approached by Indian military personnel 
offering bribes to withdraw their testimony. 

Another relative claims that former Army 
comrades had warned her to “drop it, they’re 
dead – time to move on.” Though the Indian 
government has been reticent for diplomatic 
reasons, there may have been military errors 
made leading to the men’s capture which current 
or retired soldiers want covered up.


Though no date has been firmly set, the case is 
expected to proceed later this month.